The 2026 NCAA Tournament rolls into the Sweet 16. We have 4 games on tap for Thursday, March 26th, as March Madness continues. Let’s dive into our College Basketball Sweet 16 Best Bets Today. Note that all odds and betting lines are accurate as of this writing, but are always subject to change. Good luck with these college basketball picks!

College Basketball Sweet 16 Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 3/26

Our NCAA Tournament college basketball Sweet 16 best bets today begin with No. 2 seed Purdue taking on No. 11 seed Texas. Can the Longhorns pull off yet another upset to reach the Elite Eight? Plus, our college basketball picks feature Iowa vs. Nebraska in the South region of the March Madness bracket. Check out even more college basketball predictions below for the other games on Thursday. Best of luck with our college basketball Sweet 16 best bets today. 

 

 

 

Texas vs. Purdue Prediction: Thursday, 3/26

Texas has made the improbable run from the First Four to the Sweet 16. Despite losing 5 of 6 games ahead of the NCAA Tournament, the No. 11 seed Longhorns have now won 3 straight to stay alive. Can they keep it going against No. 2 seed Purdue with an Elite Eight berth on the line? There’s certainly a chance. 

Every year, we get teams that make unlikely deep runs in March, and we have to change our perspective on them. Remember when NC State reached the Final Four as an 11-seed two years ago, after going 17-14 in the regular season? Texas is in a similar boat, and we need to view it differently now. 

This is simply a different Texas team than it was two weeks ago, and they bring in plenty of momentum. Yes, the Longhorns limped into the NCAA Tournament and even barely made it into the bracket. However, Sean Miller’s squad has seemingly turned things around. The ‘Horns have now pulled off upsets over Gonzaga and BYU to get here. 

Speaking of Miller, he’s no stranger to this stage. This is now the head coach’s 9th appearance in the Sweet 16. He’s also been to the Elite Eight four different times with Arizona and Xavier. That matters in March. Plus, the roster carries plenty of experience. Notably, Tramon Mark and Camden Heide both previously made deep NCAA Tournament runs with Houston and Purdue, respectively. 

As for Purdue, it’s also on a hot streak. The Boilermakers won the Big Ten Tournament and have now reeled off 6 straight wins. They took care of Miami (FL) in the Round of 32 with a 10-point victory. However, this is still the same team that went 2-4 over the final stretch of the regular season. 

That may seem hypocritical, since we’re choosing to ignore how poorly Texas was playing. Yet, Purdue’s prior struggles were a bit more glaring for a team that was the preseason No. 1 team in the AP Poll but went 6-7 over the final 13 games of the regular season. Maybe Matt Painter’s squad has flipped the switch, or maybe it’s due for a down game. 

Purdue brings in the top-ranked offensive efficiency at KenPom. Point guard Braden Smith has this offense humming. The issues, though, are on the defensive end. The Boilermakers ranked 16th in the Big Ten in opposing effective field-goal percentage, while allowing conference opponents to shoot 37.1% from three (16th in Big Ten) and 56.3% on two-pointers (14th). Plus, they rank 243rd in the country in forcing turnovers. 

Texas, meanwhile, has the offensive firepower to exploit some of Purdue’s defensive inconsistencies. The Longhorns rank 15th nationally in offensive efficiency. They rebound well on offense, get to the free-throw line at a top-10 clip, and can score inside. 

Point-forward Dailyn Swain is an X-factor, while the veteran backcourt of Mark and Jordan Pope gives the offense a pair of trusted ball-handlers. Texas center Matas Vokietaitis is also a difference-maker in the paint. He can match up well with Purdue's big men, Trey Kaufman-Renn and Oscar Cluff, on both ends of the floor. 

Let’s take Texas to cover the spread and keep this close. The Longhorns are also very alive for a third straight outright upset. Besides making the national title game in 2024, Purdue has previously struggled to get past the Sweet 16. The Boilermakers are 1-6 in their 7 other Sweet 16 appearances under Painter. 

Finally, another interesting trend points us to Texas. The Longhorns are now the 6th First Four team to reach the Sweet 16. Those previous 5 teams went 4-1 ATS in this round. Two squads closed as 6-point underdogs or higher (2021 UCLA and 2018 Syracuse), and both covered the spread. Furthermore, Sean Miller is now 11-4 ATS as an underdog in the NCAA Tournament throughout his coaching career. Conversely, Matt Painter is 5-7 ATS in the Sweet 16 or later. 

Iowa vs. Nebraska Prediction: Thursday, 3/26

It’s not often that two teams from the same conference meet in the Sweet 16, but that’s exactly what we have here. Iowa and Nebraska have already squared off twice during the regular season, each protecting its home court. Now, the Big Ten rivals will clash for a third time in just over a month. This time, a spot in the Elite Eight is at stake. 

Iowa is coming off a stunning upset of defending national champion Florida in the Round of 32, thanks to a game-winning three by center Alvaro Folgueiras. Even more impressive, the Hawkeyes held the top-seeded Gators to one of their lowest scoring outputs of the season.

Nebraska, meanwhile, advanced by knocking off No. 5 seed Vanderbilt in a tightly contested second-round matchup. The Cornhuskers survived a back-and-forth battle that came down to the final moments. Braden Frager scored the go-ahead layup with just 2 seconds left, before Vandy’s Tyler Tanner missed a buzzer-beater. 

Both teams now regroup after thrilling Round of 32 victories. Nebraska is the slight favorite on the spread and moneyline, but Iowa can easily win this game, especially after already besting the Cornhuskers earlier this season. Instead, let’s look at the total in what should be a low-scoring game. 

For Nebraska, perimeter shooting is often the difference-maker. The Cornhuskers rank 14th nationally in three-point attempts per game, and they’re dangerous when they find a rhythm from beyond the arc. That was on full display in the first two rounds, as they knocked down 14 threes against Troy and shot 9-for-19 (47%) from deep against Vanderbilt. 

Yet, Iowa will aim to disrupt that outside shooting. The Hawkeyes rank 30th in the country in limiting opponents’ three-point attempts. They also play at one of the slowest paces in the nation (5th-slowest). In their earlier win over Nebraska this year, they held the Huskers to just 52 points and 5-for-24 from three-point range. 

If Nebraska isn’t hitting from deep, its offense can stall. The Cornhuskers struggle to generate second-chance opportunities, ranking 311th nationally in offensive rebounding rate. They also rarely get to the free-throw line, ranking 356th in foul shot attempts per game. Those weaknesses also tend to matter more in March. 

Defensively, however, Nebraska is elite. The Cornhuskers rank 6th nationally in defensive efficiency (per KenPom) and allow just 65.8 PPG, which ranks 15th in the country. A key component will be their perimeter defense. 

Opponents are shooting just 30.1% from three against the Cornhuskers, ranking 8th nationally in that department. There is volatility there, though, as they allow a high volume of three-point attempts. However, Nebraska’s defensive strategy often forces tough, late-clock shots from deep while keeping teams out of the paint and off the free-throw line. 

Meanwhile, Iowa has struggled from long range lately. It’s shooting just 31.0% from three over the past 12 games, ranking 283rd nationally in that span since February 11th. Instead, the Hawkeyes rely heavily on scoring inside while shooting well from the free-throw line. Yet, Nebraska limits those opportunities at a high level. 

Overall, let’s take the under in what should be a defensive slugfest. Nebraska and Iowa played to 109 and 140 total points in regulation in the prior two meetings. We’ll likely see something in between those, especially since the Hawkeyes’ slow pace can control the flow.  

 

 

 

Best College Basketball Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 3/26

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