The 2026 NCAA Tournament is finally here! March Madness is officially underway with the First Four matchups in the books. It’s time to get ready for a full day of college basketball with the opening round games on Thursday, March 19th. That brings us to our College Basketball Round 1 Best Bets Today. Check out the top college basketball picks below as you cash your own bets. Note that all odds and betting lines are accurate as of this writing, but are always subject to change. Good luck, and enjoy these college basketball predictions! 

College Basketball Round 1 Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 3/19

Our NCAA Tournament college basketball Round 1 best bets today begin with the first-round matchup of No. 12 seed McNeese vs. No. 5 seed Vanderbilt. Will we get a 12-over-5 upset, or will Vandy win big? Plus, our college basketball picks include a breakdown of No. 14 seed Kennesaw State vs. No. 3 seed Gonzaga. Check out more college basketball predictions below, as we pinpoint some player props and other ways to get in on the action. Enjoy the start of the NCAA Tournament with our college basketball Round 1 best bets today. 

 

 

 

McNeese vs. Vanderbilt Prediction: Thursday, 3/19

Picking a No. 12 seed to beat a No. 5 seed in the bracket is a tale as old as time. It’s been a common occurrence over the years, and there is some 12-over-5 upset potential in this year’s NCAA Tournament. However, Vanderbilt should take care of business against McNeese in this first-round matchup of the South region. 

Vandy should probably be slotted better than a No. 5 seed, based on the advanced and predictive metrics. The Commodores are 13th in the NET, 12th in KenPom, and 10th in BartTorvik. They boast a top-10 offensive efficiency and are 29th in defense, per Torvik. The ‘Dores are also playing well after reaching the SEC Tournament title game with a double-digit win over Florida in the semis. 

Plus, Vanderbilt’s record looks much better once you look closer. It lost 8 games this season, but 7 of those came against NCAA Tournament teams. The only “bad” loss was by 1 point to Oklahoma, which just missed getting into the bracket. The Commodores also performed well in non-conference play, going 4-0 against top-50 KenPom teams. All of those opponents are in the Big Dance (Saint Mary’s, VCU, SMU, UCF), and Vandy won each by double digits by an average of 17.8 PPG. 

As for McNeese, this is actually its third straight March Madness appearance – and it even pulled off an upset over Clemson as a No. 12 seed last season. That’s all well and good, but this year’s Cowboys squad should be viewed separately. Will Wade is no longer the head coach, and the roster is very different from a year ago. 

McNeese’s 28-5 record is impressive at first glance, though it also benefited from a fairly easy schedule. The Cowboys only had to deal with Stephen F. Austin as their toughest league opponent in a subpar Southland Conference. Plus, they’ve faced just two top-80 KenPom teams thus far in Michigan (3rd) and Santa Clara (35). Those matchups resulted in losses of 41 and 13 points, respectively. 

In this game, Vandy’s top-tier offense should set the tone for a comfortable win. Tyler Tanner and Duke Miles make up one of the best backcourts in the country, headlining an offense that averages 86.4 PPG (13th in Division I). The Commodores can score well in the paint, have multiple three-point threats, and boast the 4th-best free-throw percentage in the nation. 

Most notably, Vanderbilt takes care of the ball at an elite level. The ‘Dores are 11th nationally in offensive turnover rate and average the 10th-fewest turnovers per game among power-conference teams. That’s key against McNeese, which forces turnovers at the highest rate in the entire sport. Again, though, those numbers are skewed by the Cowboys’ easier competition. 

If Vandy’s offense gets going early to build a sizable lead, then it’ll be tough for McNeese to cut the deficit. The Cowboys rank 299th in the country in three-point shooting (31.6%). Meanwhile, the Commodores have held opponents to 28.5% from deep in their wins this year. That could force McNeese inside to find points, but Vanderbilt defends the paint well with plenty of length. 

  • PICK: Vanderbilt -11.5 (-110 on BetMGM Sportsbook)

Kennesaw State vs. Gonzaga Prediction: Thursday, 3/19

One of Thursday’s late-night tips features No. 3 seed Gonzaga taking on No. 14 seed Kennesaw State in the West region of the NCAA Tournament bracket. While the Zags are heavily favored to win comfortably, the more intriguing angle here is the total. Let’s break it down. 

Gonzaga’s elite defense should play a key role in slowing down Kennesaw State’s uptempo offense. The Bulldogs rank 9th nationally in defensive efficiency, per KenPom, while allowing only 66.0 PPG this season. Opponents are shooting just 30.8% from three-point range against them (31st in Division I). Gonzaga also ranks among the top 20 nationally in defensive rebounding, forcing turnovers, and two-point defense. 

Unlike past Gonzaga teams that leaned on strong offenses, this year’s version is anchored by its defense. The Zags have the size and experience across the roster to pressure opponents and disrupt their rhythm. That will be especially important against a Kennesaw State team that plays at one of the faster tempos in the country. 

Kennesaw State’s offense also depends largely on second-chance points and trips to the free-throw line. Yet, those opportunities could be limited in this matchup. Gonzaga excels in transition defense and does a strong job of avoiding fouls. The Zags make it difficult for opponents to generate easy scoring chances, particularly in the paint as well. 

As for Gonzaga offensively, it should still produce. However, this matchup can present some challenges. Kennesaw State is strong defensively inside, ranking 13th nationally in block rate and 29th in two-point defense. That may disrupt a Zags attack that relies heavily on scoring inside, ranking 3rd in the country in two-point scoring rate. 

Gonzaga typically runs its offense through center Graham Ike while looking to attack the paint with rim-cutters. Kennesaw State’s interior defense can force the Zags to rely more on perimeter shooting, though. That can be an issue, as Gonzaga shot just 31.8% from three-point range in conference play. Early struggles are possible for Mark Few’s offense, before it eventually wears down the Owls later on. 

It’s also worth noting that the under is 13-2 over Gonzaga’s last 15 games. Notably, this trend aligns with Braden Huff’s extended absence. The big man isn’t expected to play in this opening-round matchup, and his injury has impacted the Zags’ offensive efficiency. Meanwhile, the under is 9-5 in Kennesaw State’s past 14 games. 

  • PICK: Under 154.5 Total Points (-110 on BetMGM Sportsbook)

 

 

 

Best College Basketball Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 3/19

  • TCU vs. Ohio State 1st Half Under 66.5 Points (-115 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
  • Troy +13.5 (-115 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
  • South Florida +4.5 (-110 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
  • Adrian Wooley, Louisville – Over 12.5 Points (-105 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
  • Siena vs. Duke Under 135.5 Total Points (-105 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
  • Siena Team Total Under 54.5 Points (-125 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
  • Rashaun Agee, Texas A&M – Under 16.5 Points (-111 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
  • Saint Mary’s -2.5 (-120 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
  • Illinois -25.5 (-110 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
  • Kennard Davis, BYU – Over 10.5 Points (+100 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
  • Idaho vs. Houston Over 137.5 Total Points (-115 on FanDuel Sportsbook)

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