The 2025-26 college basketball season is in full swing, and we’re here to help you cash in on the action. Let’s dive into the top college basketball best bets today for Saturday, February 21st. We have multiple Top 25 teams on the schedule, headlined by the Michigan vs. Duke and Arizona vs. Houston showdowns. Don’t miss out on the best college basketball picks below as you cash your own bets. Note that all odds are accurate as of this writing, but are always subject to change. Good luck! 

College Basketball Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 2/21

Our college basketball best bets today begin with a Big 12 battle between #4 Arizona and #2 Houston. Plus, we break down the best game of the day as #1 Michigan faces #3 Duke on Saturday night. Check out more college basketball predictions below for other games today, including UConn vs. Villanova. Let’s jump in.  

 

Arizona vs. Houston Prediction: Saturday, 2/21

The Michigan vs. Duke showdown might be Saturday’s headliner, but this Arizona vs. Houston matchup sets up to be pretty darn good as well. It’s a battle for first place in the Big 12 standings, as both the Wildcats and Cougars are 11-2 in conference play. Plus, the winner would likely be in the driver’s seat for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. 

Both squads are in interesting situations heading into this one. Arizona recently lost back-to-back games before responding with a home win over BYU on Wednesday. However, the Wildcats will still be without stud freshman Koa Peat this weekend for a second straight game. They survived without him vs. BYU, but the absence could be more glaring against Houston here. 

As for the Cougars, they’re coming off a rare loss on Monday night at Iowa State. It’s just their third loss of the season, and each deficit has been by 4 points or fewer. That result now provides an opportunity to back Houston in a rebound spot at home. 

It’s not exactly a “get-right” game with Arizona coming to town, but Houston’s proven success in these spots is impossible to ignore. In the regular season, the Cougars are 32-2 straight up after a loss since the 2017-18 season. That includes a 10-1 record over the past 4 seasons combined, with all 10 victories by 9+ points and 8 wins by double digits. Kelvin Sampson is simply among the best at getting his team to respond following a loss. 

As for this matchup, specifically, Houston’s defense can set the tone early and throughout to limit Arizona’s offense and control the game. The Cougars are allowing just 61.6 PPG this season (2nd-fewest in the country), rank 7th nationally in defensive turnover rate, and force turnovers at the 9th-best rate. They also play at the 11th-slowest tempo in the sport, which will be a notable change of pace for Arizona’s fast-paced attack. 

Houston’s suffocating, physical-style defense isn’t something that Arizona has experienced much this year – and it’s struggled a bit against top-tier defenses thus far. When the Wildcats lost to Kansas on the road last week, they were held 10 points below their season average. They also managed just 71 points in a narrow win over UConn back in November. Even against Cincinnati last month, ‘Zona shot just 43% from the field with 77 points scored. Houston’s defense is better than all of those opponents. 

Arizona’s offense could struggle for a couple of reasons. The Koa Peat absence is obviously a big one. He leads the team in offensive usage rate and is second in points per game. The Wildcats rely heavily on their interior scoring, and Peat is a large part of that. Even with him, though, Zona would have trouble scoring inside with Houston’s dominant defense in the paint. 

On that note, Arizona’s issues from three-point range are a concern in this matchup. Houston forces teams to the perimeter while shutting down the interior, ranking 335th nationally in opposing two-point scoring rate and 15th in two-point defense. The Wildcats, though, don’t have the perimeter scoring to counter. They shoot three-pointers at the third-lowest rate in the country, and have the 4th-lowest percentage of total points from three. 

As for Houston’s offense, its ability to avoid turnovers will be key. The Cougs rank 3rd nationally in offensive turnover rate, while Arizona is 144th in defensive turnover rate. ‘Zona does boast an elite defense itself, but it’s been much less dominant on the road. The Wildcats are allowing 77.8 PPG across 6 road conference games so far. 

Finally, it’s notable that Sampson and Houston have had a clear leg up on Tommy Lloyd and Arizona in recent years. The Cougars and Wildcats have played each other 3 times since 2022. Houston has won and covered the spread in each. They faced off twice last year, and Houston covered as the favorite both times while Arizona was held to 64 and 58 points. 

  • PICK: Houston -4.5 (-118 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
 

Michigan vs. Duke Prediction: Saturday, 2/21

After you enjoy the Arizona vs. Houston battle, get ready for another banger as No. 1 Michigan takes on No. 3 Duke on Saturday evening. This is a possible national championship preview featuring the current top two teams in college basketball, as ranked by NET and KenPom. 

Michigan is the slight favorite in this neutral-court matchup in Washington, D.C. A real case can be made for either team to come out on top. Both the Wolverines and Blue Devils have regularly been winning by double digits in their respective conference schedules. Instead of picking a winner, let’s just focus on the total. 

The defensive play on both ends should make this a lower-scoring game than the total suggests. Michigan boasts the top-ranked defensive efficiency at KenPom while allowing just a 37.1% overall shooting percentage this season (2nd in Division I). The Wolverines also rank 8th nationally in three-point defense and 1st in block rate. Meanwhile, Duke is allowing only 63.2 PPG this season and is 2nd in defensive efficiency. 

Of course, both teams are top 10 offensively as well. However, the elite defenses should set the tone and have the edge. That can be even more the case in this non-conference setting on a neutral court, with NCAA Tournament seeding implications and bragging rights on the line. Expect the defenses to be dialed in early and often while the offenses take time to adjust. 

Duke, especially, will look to slow Michigan down and limit fast-break points. The Blue Devils rank 351st nationally in defensive tempo, regularly making teams use up most of the shot clock and forcing tough shots. Michigan likes to run, playing at the 12th-fastest pace nationally. However, Duke has previously shown it can slow down uptempo teams. 

In some of Duke’s games against other faster-paced top-tier offenses like Florida, Arkansas, and Louisville (twice), the under cashed each time. The under also hit in the Blue Devils’ non-conference matchups against Kansas and Texas earlier this season. On that note, the under is 18-8 in Duke’s games this year overall, including 8 of the last 10 coming in. 

Both teams are at their best offensively when scoring inside and owning the paint. Well, both teams also defend the interior very well and have the size to counter each other. It’ll be an entertaining battle between Duke’s dominant frontcourt combo (Cameron Boozer and Patrick Ngongba) against Michigan’s trio of bigs (Yaxel Lendeborg, Aday Mara, and Morez Johnson). 

Michigan and Duke will both look to establish the paint early, but it’ll likely turn into a clash of physicality without many successful buckets. The game could turn into a defensive slugfest early, pointing to the under. As noted, both offenses are elite in their own right, and the under could be a loser if the three’s start falling. Let’s bank on that not happening, though. 

  • PICK: Under 150.5 Total Points (-105 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
 

Best College Basketball Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 2/21

  • Florida vs. Ole Miss Over 147.5 Total Points (-110 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
  • UConn Moneyline (-142 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
  • Arkansas -10.5 (-110 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
  • San Diego State Moneyline (-145 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
  • UCLA +6.5 (-105 on DraftKings Sportsbook)

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