Two top-ranked teams are set to clash on Saturday night in Washington D.C., as the number one Michigan Wolverines face off against the number three Duke Blue Devils in what appears to be a preview of the Final Four. Michigan comes into the game with a record of 25-1, boasting an impressive 11-game winning streak, while Duke stands at 24-2, having won their last three games.

Oddsmakers have made Michigan a slight favorite in this neutral-site contest at Capital One Arena. Although this matchup represents the Wolverines' toughest challenge to date, one thing is abundantly clear ahead of our #1 Michigan vs. #3 Duke picks: betting against Michigan right now is simply not an option.

 

#1 Michigan vs. #3 Duke Predictions for NCAAB on ESPN, 2/21

Both teams have strong arguments for being the number one overall seed come March. Michigan boasts a perfect 10-0 record in Quad 1 games and has faced one of the most challenging schedules in the nation. Duke's only defeats have been by a single point on a neutral court and by three points on the road. On paper, these two programs are very closely matched.

However, when it comes to making a choice in such a closely contested matchup, form and consistency are crucial — and no team in college basketball has demonstrated more consistency than Michigan, which means our #1 Michigan vs. #3 Duke predictions will side with the Wolverines.

#1 Michigan vs. #3 Duke Spread Pick: Wolverines -2.5 (-114 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

Let’s begin with the obvious: this is a heavyweight matchup. Duke stands third in the nation for scoring defense, allowing just 63.2 points per game, and boasts a shooting percentage exceeding 50%.

Cameron Boozer, a projected lottery selection, is averaging 22.8 points and 10 rebounds each game. The Blue Devils are known for their discipline, efficiency, and their ability to avoid self-inflicted mistakes. Yet — you simply cannot stand in Michigan's way at this moment.

The Wolverines are scoring an impressive 90.6 points per game, ranking fourth nationally, while shooting 51.4% from the field. They are not only explosive but also remarkably efficient. In their recent victory against Purdue, Michigan achieved a shooting percentage of 52.6%, made 13 three-pointers, and recorded 24 assists.

This balance is what sets them apart. It’s not a one-man show; five players are averaging double-digit points, and three frontcourt players — Yaxel Lendeborg, Morez Johnson Jr., and Aday Mara — each average over seven rebounds per game.

This interior trio consistently applies pressure at the rim. Michigan boasts an elite 62.6% shooting on two-point attempts. Duke is also formidable inside with a 62% shooting rate, but the Wolverines have faced a more challenging defensive schedule while maintaining their efficiency. When you merge that interior strength with a 36% success rate from beyond the arc and top-five assist statistics nationally, you have an offense that challenges every aspect of a defense.

When betting on a neutral court, having a reliable defense is crucial. Michigan provides that assurance. They concede only 68.8 points per game and restrict opponents to 37.1% shooting from the field and 29.2% from beyond the arc.

These stats are not just hollow figures — they’re supported by solid perimeter defense and exceptional rim protection from Mara, who averages nearly three blocks per game. Duke is also a formidable defensive squad, ranking third in the nation for points allowed.

However, the Blue Devils do have a slight weakness when it comes to defending against perimeter shooting in conference play. They’re shooting 34.5% from three-point range in ACC games, which places them in the middle tier of the league.

In contrast, Michigan is hitting over 36% from deep against Big Ten opponents. In a game expected to be in the high 140s, a few successful three-pointers could determine whether a bet covers or not.

This spread is merely 2.5. Essentially, you’re asking Michigan to secure a victory by a single possession on neutral ground. Considering their tougher schedule, broader scoring distribution, and current momentum, our #1 Michigan vs. #3 Duke predictions believe that’s a wager worth placing.

 

How To Watch #1 Michigan vs. #3 Duke NCAAB on ESPN

  • Date: Saturday, February 21, 2026
  • Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
  • Location: Capital One Arena (Washington, D.C.)
  • TV: ESPN

#1 Michigan vs. #3 Duke Odds, Spreads, Total & Betting Lines

Expanding on our #1 Michigan vs. #3 Duke predictions for the game this Saturday, we’re excited to present the most recent #1 Michigan vs. #3 Duke odds from FanDuel Sportsbook for this thrilling matchup:

  • Money Line (ML): Wolverines -152 | Blue Devils +126
  • Spread: Wolverines -2.5 (-114) | Blue Devils +2.5 (-106)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 148.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

#1 Michigan vs. #3 Duke Injury Report & Latest News

Michigan Injury Report

  • W. Grady (G-F) – Questionable, Undisclosed
  • R. Liburd (G-F) – Out, Redshirt

Duke Injury Report

  • I. Ufochukwu (C) – Out, Undisclosed
  • S. Wilkins (G-F) – Out, Redshirt

How To Bet On Michigan vs. Duke At FanDuel Sportsbook & Claim Your $100 Bonus

Prepare yourself for an exciting opportunity with FanDuel Sportsbook to join forces with our top #1 Michigan vs. #3 Duke picks — it’s super simple! To claim your bonus, just follow these easy registration steps:

  1. Begin by clicking the link to set up a new FanDuel account; no FanDuel promo code is needed.
  2. Ensure your initial deposit is at least $5.
  3. Next, place a wager of $5 or more on the #1 Michigan vs. #3 Duke predictions, or on any other game that piques your interest.

If your wager is successful, you’ll receive an additional $100 in bonus bets on top of your winnings! Register with FanDuel today to grab an incredible bonus valued at $300.

Â