MLB Advanced Analytics: Strikeout-to-Walk Ratio: Part Two
Published: May 10, 2019
One of my favorite early season stats to examine is always Strikeout-to-walk Ratio, or K/BB. It tends to indicate success in a simplistic way. Strikeouts are good. Walks are bad. A strong K/BB will typically reveal who’s getting it done with effective pitching. A strikeout artist can afford to walk some batters as long as he’s raking up Ks. Conversely, a control specialist needs to keep walks to a bare minimum to be useful.
Below is a table of the current top 25 in K/BB. I’ve included Strikeout Percentage minus Walk Percentage, or K-BB%, as it’s a good reference point to see in case a very low walk total due to few batters faced is driving a low K/BB.
Name | Team | K/BB | K-BB% |
Dodgers | 22.5 | 26.4 % | |
Nationals | 9 | 29.6 % | |
Indians | 7.14 | 28.5 % | |
Rays | 6.57 | 24.4 % | |
Twins | 6.38 | 20.7 % | |
Giants | 6.38 | 21.2 % | |
Diamondbacks | 6.25 | 21.8 % | |
Tigers | 5.73 | 25.9 % | |
Padres | 5.67 | 17.7 % | |
Rays | 5.56 | 28.9 % | |
Diamondbacks | 5.5 | 22.6 % | |
Reds | 5.13 | 21.0 % | |
Red Sox | 5.09 | 24.3 % | |
Astros | 5 | 24.2 % | |
Astros | 4.93 | 29.7 % | |
Nationals | 4.86 | 26.2 % | |
Marlins | 4.67 | 27.3 % | |
Padres | 4.6 | 24.0 % | |
Brewers | 4.5 | 23.1 % | |
Mets | 4.5 | 20.4 % | |
Phillies | 4.43 | 14.1 % | |
Marlins | 4.33 | 19.2 % | |
Rockies | 4.33 | 19.1 % | |
Mets | 4.31 | 25.8 % |
Carlos Carrasco makes for an intriguing buy low. He’s still getting you the Ks you paid for. The ratios could stabilize and make him a value. Matthew Boyd ’s breakout looks legit here. He’s a strikeout pitcher now. My best ball portfolio is thrilled to see Caleb Smith picking up where he left off in 2018 with great strikeout stuff. Smith was a worthwhile gamble for me as his injury wasn’t of the typical arm stress variety.
On the other end of the control spectrum are these pitchers issue far too many free passes.
Name | Team | K/BB | K-BB% |
Athletics | 1.16 | 1.6 % | |
Royals | 1.29 | 3.9 % | |
Marlins | 1.29 | 3.5 % | |
Blue Jays | 1.4 | 5.5 % | |
Brewers | 1.45 | 5.5 % | |
Angels | 1.57 | 5.0 % | |
Marlins | 1.62 | 8.0 % | |
Nationals | 1.64 | 8.1 % | |
Diamondbacks | 1.82 | 8.1 % | |
Brewers | 1.86 | 7.3 % | |
Giants | 2 | 8.3 % | |
Orioles | 2.06 | 9.3 % | |
Marlins | 2.13 | 8.4 % | |
White Sox | 2.24 | 13.2 % | |
Rangers | 2.25 | 10.9 % | |
Blue Jays | 2.28 | 11.9 % | |
Royals | 2.29 | 11.5 % | |
Phillies | 2.31 | 11.4 % | |
Rockies | 2.39 | 14.1 % | |
Diamondbacks | 2.39 | 17.3 % | |
Braves | 2.4 | 14.7 % | |
Rockies | 2.43 | 11.5 % | |
Twins | 2.44 | 13.5 % | |
Blue Jays | 2.44 | 14.6 % | |
Twins | 2.53 | 16.1 % |
It’s interesting to see Kyle Freeland on this list. Precise control was such a critical element to his 2018 success. That seemed like a skills gain that would translate to 2019 but hasn’t. Sandy Alcantara is likely ticketed for the minors once the Marlins deem Zac Gallen ready/affordable. Merrill Kelly was supposed to be Miles Mikolas light, but a command specialist without command is just a bad pitcher.
Strikeout-to-walk Ratio is an excellent starting point for a deeper dive on pitching. It can help you identify some buy lows, as well as some possible pickups to avoid. K/BB is also a great reference point when choosing a DFS pitcher. You absolutely want someone with a track record of significantly more strikeouts than walks.