Every year third base is a rich position chock full of four and five-category hitters and great depth. That may not be the case this year as this position is full of landmines with only three players in the ADP Top-25 and then a significant drop off in fantasy goodness.

A bust can have many definitions. But in simple terms, it is a player that does not return profit. based on his ADP (Average Draft Position). You never want to swing and whiff in your draft because a bust can create a huge hole in your lineup and one that you may never dig out of during the entire season. Here are a few third basemen that have red flags and are being drafted too high with a small chance to return the expected value at their current ADP.

 

 


 

 


Adalberto Mondesi (Kansas City Royals)

Once again Mondesi is high on draft lists as the fifth-ranked third baseman with an ADP of 59.98. This is a player that has never played more than 102 games in a season during his career and the only reason that he is being drafted this high is because of stolen bases. Mondesi is one of the best in the game at stealing bases, but he just cannot stay healthy. 

Here we are again in 2022 and Mondesi is still being talked about in fantasy circles as that rare player with elite speed and pop, yet he only saw 136 plate appearances in 2021 and has only eclipsed 300 plate appearances once in his career. Can he be a 20-home run/50 steal player? Sure, he can but he can also find himself on the bench halfway through the season due to poor contact skills (31.6% K rate and 20.1% swinging-strike rate) and a bad batter’s eye (4.3% career walk rate). Mondesi has way too many question marks for a player with a top-60 ADP and is too much of a risk, especially with players like JD Martinez, Alex Bregman, and Carlos Correa being drafted after him. 
 

 


Austin Riley (Atlanta Braves)

I am a big Austin Riley fan and I have him in a lot of my dynasty leagues but an ADP of 52.46 is just too much when he is being drafted in the same area as Pete Alonso, Byron Buxton, and George Springer. Riley emerged as one of the better slugging corner infielders in MLB last season with 33 home runs, 33 doubles, and 107 RBIs for the Braves. His OPS jumped from .750 and .716 in his first two seasons to a big .898 in 2021.

You are now paying full price for Riley and natural regression is expected especially with a .368 BABIP (third base in baseball) and other third basemen like Nolan Arenado, Alex Bregman, and Kris Bryant all of whom have similar numbers being drafted 20-40 spots after him. A solid season is expected again for Riley, but I just don’t see him returning expected value this year after the monster numbers that were put up in 2021.

 

 


Yoán Moncada (Chicago White Sox)

Will Yoán Moncada ever fulfill his promise? Was too much expected of him too soon? This was a major prospect with the Red Sox and was labeled a phenom due to elite power and speed. He was a “can’t miss” and showed his potential right away after a trade to the White Sox and 17 home runs and 12 stolen bases in 2018. Then he took off in 2019 with 25 home runs, ten steals, and a .315 average. Little did White Sox fans know at the time but that would be Moncada’s peak offensive season in the major leagues. 

In 2020, Moncada came down with COVID and he never got going. He hit six home runs, stole zero bases, and hit .225 with a 31.2% strikeout rate over 52 games. Everyone was expecting a bounce-back season last year, but it never came. Moncada had a slash line of .263/.375/.412 for an OPS of .787. That is pretty good but it’s not “phenom” category when he only hits 14 home runs and 61 RBIs with 74 runs scored. 

Since shifting to the hot corner for the 2019 season Moncada ranks eighth among qualified third basemen with a 124 wRC+ plus he ranks sixth in OBP at .363 and ninth in BB% at 10.8%. These are good numbers for a Major League player but not Moncada’s pedigree. It would be nice to see Moncada take another step in 2022 but this may be what he is- a useful, quality player that just hasn’t provided the consistent superstar offense that brought him the No. 1 prospect in baseball tag that came with him when the White Sox acquired him in 2016 for Chris Sale.