The AFC and NFC Championship games are here! Perhaps the best weekend of the playoffs since it’s the four best teams left all vying for a shot at a title and the in-game decisions and match-ups become all the more magnified, especially as the clock winds down. We already saw the Browns get criticized for the calls they made or didn’t make down the stretch in last weekend’s game, just imagine what happens when a spot in the Super Bowl is risked because of a dicey call. There are still a few key players who’s statuses for Sunday are up in the air, namely Patrick Mahomes , and if those players being ruled out definitively changes info presented, the article will be updated.
As always there will be 30-plus stats for each game including stats and ranks for each. There will also be quick breakdowns to show the mismatches or intriguing stats about each game and where we can find upside for DFS or fantasy football match-ups. The color-coding in the tables are from an offensive point of view based on the teams left for this week. The more green you see, the better for the offensive players and the more red in the table, the tougher a match-up is for the offensive players though again, there are only four teams left so the red is relative.
Matchups
Tampa Bay at Green Bay
This might be surprising but this is the first home NFC Championship game for Aaron Rodgers as he’s gone 1-3 with 6:7 TD:INT ratio in the prior four trips to the game. Things may also get worse, in terms of streaks, for the Packers as well. This is the 17th time that a team that defeated a team by 20 or more points is facing that team in the conference championship and in the prior 16 games, the regular season winner is 13-3 and 4-0 and in the last 10 seasons; Tampa Bay beat Green Bay 38-10 in Tampa in mid-October. Ultimately this match-up comes down to strength-on-strength as the Packers average the most rushing yards per game of any team left in the playoffs but Tampa Bay has the best rush defense in the league and Tampa Bay is the second-best passing attack left in the playoffs facing the Packers’ pass defense which is the best unit left and seventh-best overall in the league. For both teams we saw the secondary receivers generally do better than the top targets and that should continue this week as well as the Buccaneers and Packers both rank 22nd and 23rd respectively in DVOA against number-two receivers but are both in the top-10 against number-one receivers. One thing is for sure though, with this being potentially the last meeting between Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady , a show will be put on.
Buffalo at Kansas City
Our Video Production guy here at FA, Petey Stitz, pointed this out on Twitter on Wednesday, but this is the third time that these two teams have met for either the AFC or AFL Championship game and it’s happened in 27-year cycles (1967, 1994, 2021) with the teams splitting the prior two. Speaking of prior meetings, the two met earlier this year in Buffalo and in that rainy and windy game in mid-October, Kansas City came out on top, 26-17, and Josh Allen has his worst passing day, yardage and completion wise, of the season. The thing though is that this isn’t the same Chiefs team this time, obviously Patrick Mahomes status is a huge question mark, though he’s progressing in a positive direction, as they’ve only managed to win their last eight wins by six or fewer points in each one, an NFL record. They’ve also failed to top 22 points in three straight games. Based on the defensive stats that each team comes in with on the year, this should be a shootout, especially if Mahomes plays, but there are a few suggestions to the contrary. Travis Kelce has been held under 70 yards in each of his four career games against the Bills and the Bills have held the Chiefs to just 18.0 PPG since 2017. Kansas City is also top-14 in DVOA against all receivers and TEs but when Buffalo gets into the red zone, Kansas City has the worst red zone defense in the league.