The closer position is one of the few positions that has many different strategy routes. Should you invest in a top-tier guy? Should you take a risk on lower-tier options? Or do you just punt the position altogether? Most of that depends on your league type and league settings. From there, you need to figure out the route you want to take and who is worth targeting. Let’s dive in!
Why Draft Them?
The elite closers can make a huge difference on your strikeouts, K/9, ERA, WHIP, and more depending on the categories offered in your league. The difference between an early round selection of Kenley Jansen and an end of draft selection of Shane Greene equated to six extra saves. There were also some huge differences in their value in other areas; Jansen had 17 more strikeouts, a 2.11 better ERA, and a 0.38 better WHIP, and that is in a down year for Jansen. Those numbers may not sound like a lot, but over the course of a season that can make a huge difference on your pitching numbers. A huge bonus with elite closers is having them plugged into your lineup each and every day and not having to worry about if you need to chase saves or risk hurting your ratios using a low-end closer.
Better ratios/numbers that they produce is the first part of the equation. Another reason to draft a top-notch closer is the risk involved with not drafting an elite closer. If you choose to get low-end closers at the end of the draft you are banking on guys with low job security to provide you with saves without killing your ratios. Low job security closers can be tough to own, as a few slip-ups can result in them no longer being the teams closer. Once that happens, you are fighting with your other league members for that teams new closer, and if you are unable to land him, you are now looking at a gaping hole in your roster. This is the exact position that you do not want to be in. In roto leagues, falling too far behind in categories can prove to be enough of a difference between taking home the champion trophy and finishing in second or third.
Why Not Draft Them?
We will start with this: Last season the top-5 closers drafted (based on ADP) were Kenley Jansen , Craig Kimbrel , Aroldis Chapman , Corey Knebel , and Roberto Osuna . If you played fantasy baseball last season or kept up with the MLB season you quickly noticed that group did not pan out all that well. Jansen was good, but far worse than what we are used to and did not live up to his price tag. Chapman spent significant time on the DL. Knebel was a mess and finished the season with only 16 saves. Osuna was suspended for half the season and only pitched 38 innings. Meanwhile, some of the best save value came from guys that you could have taken at the end of the draft or picked up off the waivers. Blake Treinen , Will Smith , Jeremy Jeffress , Pedro Strop , Kirby Yates , and Jose Leclerc all fit that profile. If you play fantasy baseball each year this is something you will notice happens quite often. There is a lot of stress on a closers arm and that can lead to frequent DL trips. This opens the door for new closers regularly. New closers lead to new fantasy assets, and it’s a position with constant change.
The second portion of why you don’t want to draft an elite closer is what you are losing by doing so. When you use an early round selection on a closer, you are missing out on a more high-end position player or starting pitcher. This can really be detrimental to your team if you don’t hit on your late round upside selections of position players or starting pitchers.
Chase Saves or Chase Strikeouts?
When using an early round selection on a closer do you go for someone who had a high save total last season or do you go for a guy who was a strikeout machine last season? The quick answer may bring you to thinking that the guy with the high save total is the better selection. Yes, saves are a big portion of what you want out of a closer. The problem with this idea is that save totals vary from year-to-year in great amounts. If you went into your 2018 draft targeting the top-six save leaders of 2017, you would have missed on all but one of them. Only Kenley Jansen of the top-six saves leaders of 2017 landed in the top-six of the 2018 save leaders. This is where the argument for targeting high strikeout closers comes into play. While save totals may be a bit volatile, high strikeout totals are not. For the most part, if a guy is good at striking out opposing hitters in one year, he is going to be good at it again the next. Edwin Díaz , Kenley Jansen , Craig Kimbrel , Felipe Vázquez , Aroldis Chapman , Brad Hand , and Raisel Iglesias are all guys that put up strong strikeout numbers consistently year in and year out. Again, there is much more consistency in strikeouts than there is in save totals. Chasing strikeouts usually means having to draft some of the earlier round closers, but it is well worth it. In my experiences, having high-end relievers is a huge bonus to your team. Knowing how to work the waiver wire can fill the slight voids that may happen with your position players if you choose to take an elite closer.
Closers to Target
Edwin Díaz (47.67 ADP) – We had him here last year and he crushed it for us and while he won’t be a steal of the draft like he was last year, I like him again this season. Yes, he is going to cost you a key draft pick, but if you build your team correctly, it will be more than worth it. He was easily the top closer last season as he finished with a ridiculous 57 saves (15 more than the next closest!), 1.96 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, and 124 strikeouts across 73.1 innings pitched. He was traded to the Mets this offseason and it is a move that should only be beneficial to the 24-year-old closer. He gets a positive park shift from the Mariners 27th ranked park in runs to the Mets 30th ranked park. He also gets a positive park shift in the home run department going from the Mariners 15th ranked park to the Mets 22nd ranked park. The Mets have made some improvements to their roster this offseason, but they still aren’t going to be blowing anyone out and that should mean a lot of save opportunities for Diaz. He also has a strong setup man in front of him in Jeurys Familia , another positive thing for Diaz’s fantasy value.
Roberto Osuna (89.64 ADP) – He was a huge letdown in fantasy last season and I completely understand if you don’t like the guy, but you don’t have to like him to reap fantasy benefits off of him. He is only 23 years old and already has 116 saves under his belt with a career ERA of 2.78. He has 272 strikeouts across 245.2 innings pitched in his career (10.0 K/9). He hasn’t finished a season with a WHIP above 0.97 in his four seasons in the bigs. All that sounds pretty darn good right? He will be closing out ball games for one of the best teams in MLB and the Astros should provide him with plenty of save opportunities. He is currently being drafted as the 7th closer off the board and there is little doubt in mind that he will be more than worth his draft spot. He will finish the season as a top-five closer.
Jose Leclerc (113.38 ADP) – Leclerc is currently being drafted as the 12th reliever off the board and at his price he is an absolute steal. I think he has a strong chance of being this year’s Edwin Díaz (albeit with closer to 30 saves than the 57 Diaz had last year). Leclerc is coming off a dominant season and racked up 12 saves – all of which came after the start of August. He is 25 years old and has posted very impressive strikeout numbers thus far in his career with 160 punch-outs across 118.1 innings pitched. Last season he struck out 85 across 57.2 innings of work and finished the year with a 1.56 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. The sub-two ERA was no fluke either, as he finished the season with a 1.90 FIP. A sharp decrease in walks issued were a huge factor in his best season to date as he lowered his BB/9 from 7.8 in 2016 and 7.9 in 2017 to 3.9 in 2018. He has also seen an increase in his K/9 from 9.0 to 11.8 to last season’s 13.3 mark. Opposing hitters only managed to swing it at a .126 clip against him last season and for his career they are only managing a .145 mark. The Rangers probably aren’t going to be very good this year, but this is a guy you want to own in fantasy.
Closers to Avoid
Blake Treinen (64.43 ADP) – Treinen had a fantastic season in 2018 and his landing in this section is not me saying it was a fluke; however, at his price tag in this year’s drafts he is a closer to avoid. He is currently being drafted as the number two reliever off the board. Treinen is 30 years old and was a mediocre closer prior to joining Oakland. In last season’s breakout campaign he posted career bests in saves (38), innings pitched (80.1), strikeouts (100), ERA (0.78), WHIP (0.83), H/9 (5.2), HR/9 (0.2), BB/9 (2.4), and K/9 (11.2). What makes it even more remarkable is that those career bests were, for the most part, light-years ahead of his previous bests. He was never a strikeout pitcher and last season was his first year with a K/9 over nine. His ERA is unrepeatable and the chances of him making good on his draft slot are slim-to-none. I like the player, but not the price tag.
Ken Giles (130.89 ADP) – Giles just simply has not been all that good as a closer for the majority of the time he has been used in the role. He is being taken in drafts as if he is a sure thing, but he is far from it. He has posted an ERA over 4.00 in two of the last three seasons, with last year’s mark of 4.65 being a career worst. In fact, he posted career worsts in a large majority of pitching categories, including: wins (0), strikeouts (53), FIP (3.08), H/9 (9.7), HR/9 (1.1), and K/9 (9.5). You might be saying “that was because of a bad start to the year with the Astros, he was much better with the Blue Jays.” Wrong. In his time with the Jays he pitched to a 4.12 ERA and gave up four home runs across just 19.2 innings pitched. He pitches in the hardest division in baseball and his home park was number eight in home run park factor last season (not good for a guy who gives up the long ball as often as Giles). His ADP should be closer to some of the guys in the 200’s like Givens and Bradley and not within two rounds of guys like Doolittle, Leclerc, and Yates.