Every year, without fail, I end up in a debate with someone who starts to quote year-to-year player/team statistics to support their side of the argument without acknowledging the team’s change at head coach. I hear, “this guy rushed for 1,000 yards last year and will repeat, or “that guy will see a boatload of targets because his quarterback threw the ball 40 times per game,” far more than I should. You would think, after all this time and with the amount of player and coaching movement we see, people would understand how important the offensive scheme is to a player’s production, but alas, there is simply far too much lazy analysis these days.

If there is a new head coach, you are going to have to identify what that coach’s preferred scheme might be and how it will affect the personnel, both incumbents and new arrivals. Every coach has their preferred base-offense, but as the years pass and the game of football evolves, each coach tends to put their own spin on things in the hopes of out-smarting their opponents. Knowledge of coaching trees is helpful as each coach’s history usually leads you to their base, but they must still be studied individually to reach a full understanding of what to expect on the field.

This year we have seven new head coaches, 13 new offensive coordinators and 13 new defensive coordinators. We are already familiar with most, if not all, of the names, but their impact on their new teams is likely to cause some serious ripple effects on the personnel and therefore change how you should be viewing a number of players. 

As we get closer to training camps being open, we will be diving much deeper into the specific offensive and defensive systems each team will run, but it doesn’t hurt to take a preliminary look at the list of new coaches and coordinators and speculate on what we expect to see from the new bosses and their teams this season.

New Head Coaches:

Arthur Smith, ATL – There’s a lot to be said about Smith’s impressive and meteoric rise through the coaching ranks of the NFL. He spent his early years (2007-2012) as a quality control coach for Washington and Tennessee, was named the Titans’ assistant tight ends coach in 2014, dropped the assistant designation in 2015 and after three years, was named the team’s offensive coordinator. He’s been credited with turning this offensive unit into one of the most competitive in the NFL and has helped usher players like Ryan Tannehill, Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown into the limelight. He now brings his offensive scheme and coaching prowess to Atlanta, a team in desperate need of a coaching overhaul. Smith uses a west coast offense as his base and will feature the ground game as a way to open up the passing attack. Mike Davis should enjoy a featured role in this scheme while short, quick timing routes will help move the ball downfield. That will set up for more play-action and better chances downfield for Matt Ryan. The goal is to make the offense more efficient, so don’t expect to see the heavy passing attack we saw the last two seasons with Dirk Koetter as the OC. The Falcons aerial attack will be about quality over quantity. 

Urban Meyer, JAC – This has been one of the most polarizing hires as the football community seems divided on their opinions of Meyer leading the Jaguars. There was a ton of hype coming in, but he was also heavily criticized for some of his coaching staff and player personnel hires. Meyer swears he’s not just going to install his Ohio State pass-heavy scheme and his hiring of OC Darrell Bevell, notorious for favoring a run-heavy scheme, seems to indicate there will be some give on that. When Meyer had Ezekiel Elliott as his running back in college, he rode the ground game plenty so he’s likely to try and find some happy medium here at the pro level. Still, we will definitely see a strong lean towards a spread offense with multiple wide receiver sets. The hope is to scatter the receivers and open up the middle of the field more which should lead to designed runs for Trevor Lawrence, dump-offs to Travis Etienne and maybe, just maybe, some work for James Robinson. There’s a lot that will reveal itself during training camp and the first few weeks of the regular season, but keep your expectations for this young team in check.

Dan Campbell, DET – Bringing in the former NFL tight end to serve as the head coach of a rebuilding Lions team was a bit of a head-scratcher. Campbell is a great motivator and should be the consummate player’s coach who can get more out of his guys, at least from an effort standpoint. However, he doesn’t have experience in building schemes. He knows he wants a system that will cater to his players’ strengths, but designing one himself is not his strong suit. There’s nothing wrong with that as Herm Edwards made a career out of being a similar-style of head coach, but you need to surround yourself with high-quality coordinators who do know how to build the system. On the defensive side, Campbell went with former NFL cornerback Aaron Glenn as his DC but also added legendary Dom Capers as the senior defensive assistant. On the offensive front, though, Campbell brought in Anthony Lynn who looked way overmatched as a head coach during his stint with the Chargers. Lynn prefers a run-heavy scheme with a rotation of running backs, which isn’t ideal for fantasy, and likes to use play-action to open up the passing game. Problem is, even with strong defensive minds at the helm, this defense is expected to struggle which puts the Lions as playing from behind often and that doesn’t bode well for an offense led by Lynn.

David Culley, HOU – The former Ravens passing game coordinator gets a shot here as the new head coach in Houston, but he retained OC Tim Kelly to maintain system consistency for the personnel. Kelly worked under Bill O’Brien for years, so when he was finally named the OC, it was because he would maintain BOB’s offensive scheme. Not much has changed in that sense as Kelly will continue to roll with this west coast/spread hybrid offense that also mixes in a lot of RPO. He likely won’t have Deshaun Watson under center, so Tyrod Taylor will be relied upon to carry out the game plan. Taylor has some mobility and we’ve seen him thrive under Greg Roman’s scheme when they worked together in Baltimore which is why Culley felt the need to stick with Kelly and the current system. Will there be a few nuances? We’ll see what Kelly does, but overall, there’s not a lot of change to expect. 

Brandon Staley, LAC – When Staley joined the Bears as a linebackers coach, he latched onto defensive guru Vic Fangio, followed him to Denver and was later hired as the Rams DC by Sean McVay. Now we all know that once you’re associated with McVay, the job opportunities start to fall at your feet, but Staley legitimately did a solid job with the Rams defense in 2020 and, once hired by the Chargers, was smart to hire former Saints QB coach Joe Lombardi to lead the offense in Los Angeles. Staley has given Lombardi the green light to install his version of the Saints offense which will allow him glean from his years of experience working with Drew Brees as he helps Justin Herbert refine an already special set of skills. The scheme should easily highlight Austin Ekeler as a pass-catcher, much in the way it did Alvin Kamara, and Keenan Allen and Mike Williams should thrive as well (remember, Michael Thomas was the X-receiver in this system which is the role Williams routinely plays). Lombardi also brought in TE Jared Cook who, obviously, knows this system very well. You should be bullish on this Chargers offense and If Staley and DC Renaldo Hill can get this defense humming, the Chargers will be a serious force with which to reckon.

Robert Saleh, NYJ – There was plenty of hype surrounding Saleh as a coaching candidate. His work with the 49ers defense had been absolutely outstanding and he was highly regarded as a coach who gets the most out of his players. He’s a motivator, for sure, but he’s got a higher football acumen than say, Dan Campbell, and likes to remain involved in scheme design on both sides of the ball. To make the transition easier on himself, Saleh brought in Mike LaFleur as his offensive coordinator. LaFleur was the passing game coordinator for the 49ers and is well-schooled in the Kyle Shanahan scheme Saleh wants the Jets to use. Expect LaFleur to run the Jets offense very much like the Niners – a heavy lean on the running backs, both on the ground and through the air, with some west coast style passing to help move the chains. That should afford more play-action to open up some deeper plays downfield. Overall, it’s still a work in progress as the Jets don’t have the personnel level the 49ers had and will endure its struggles from time to time. Moving forward, though, this could be an intriguing unit at some point. 

Nick Sirianni, PHI – Once the Eagles parted ways with Doug Pederson, they looked for the best possible chance to return to their 2017 season when they won the Super Bowl. They weren’t going to land their former OC Frank Reich so they’re taking what they believe to be the next best thing – Reich’s former offensive coordinator. Sirianni will look to install his version of Reich’s offense in Indy which doesn’t stray far from what Pederson used to run. Expect a lot of pre-snap movement, a lean on RPO to help Jalen Hurts and maybe even some increased use of the running backs. Miles Sanders fared well with Hurts under center, but expect the rotation of backs to continue. How much of a rotation is yet to be seen, so keep a watchful eye. I wouldn’t expect much change from the overall scheme the Eagles have used before, at least not at the start.