NFL Mock Draft Army - ADP Review: August 10
Andy Spiteri breaks down the most recent trends from the Mock Draft Army ahead of the fantasy football season!
The Mock Draft Army did it’s yeoman’s work this week with five great drafts. We have begun to see the effect of Ezekiel Elliott ’s ‘I’m sitting out the season” proclamation. Melvin Gordon ’s holdout has dropped him solidly into the second round but the Zeke effect hasn’t been as pronounced. The expectation out there is that Zeke will play but Gordon’s holdout will last into the season. I’m just sick and tired of players signing a contract and then deciding that they don’t want to honor it. Imagine if the owners just decided to pay the player half of what he was owed because he was underperforming that season. Honestly I’m tired of talking about these guys. Let’s move on to this week’s topic.
We have several teams with either a declared RB committee or a battle for the top spot. Who is being drafted where and did the first two weeks of camp change what the Army is doing in regard to ADP? Did Andy Reid’s words that included the dreaded “RBBC” effect where Damien Williams was picked? As for wide receivers, who is preferred on teams with several good wideouts? Who’s the WR2 on Green Bay? Who is the preferred receiver on the Rams this week? Did anyone’s performance on Thursday influence Friday’s mock?
Let’s start in Green Bay where Davante Adams is currently entrenched as the Packers primary receiving option and as a first round pick. On Friday we saw Geronimo Allison go ten picks ahead of Marquez Valdes-Scantling at pick 9.09. In Thursday’s 14-team mock it was MVS taken 22 picks ahead of Allison at 8.03. MVS was taken ahead of Allison in the other drafts last week as well. His ADP by the Army is at 107 which is almost two rounds ahead of the rest of the sites who have him averaging 127. Allison has an ADP of 125 (MDA) and 129 (overall). It is clear that the MDA prefers Valdes-Scantling but the rest of the fantasy world has them neck and neck. This is something to keep an eye on during the rest of the pre-season.
In Kansas City Andy Reid made a statement on SiriusXM NFL radio that probably made a few fantasy owners, who have already drafted some teams, cringe. “I did a little bit of that back when I was in Philadelphia. Kind of a running back by committee deal and we had some success with it. We’ll do that here...They all have their strengths and we’ll try to exploit their strengths there.” Williams’ stock fell as the week progressed. Early in the week he was a mid-second round pick and later on he fell into the third round and was even a fourth round pick in the ten-team mock. Carlos Hyde who had been creeping up the board with Williams sitting out due to a leg injury, took a leap into the eighth round in both Thursday’s 14-team and Friday’s 12-team mocks. That’s a two round rise based on his tenth round ADP average across all sites. Check out the Fantasy Alarm rankings to see where Hyde is now ranked. He is definitely rising up the charts.
We saw last week a slight rise in Lamar Miller ’s ADP after the release of D’Onta Foreman. Now with the trade of Duke Johnson to the Texans, what effects did this have on Miller, Johnson, Chubb, etc? Chubb’s position on the draft board did not change much as he was consistently taken between RB9 and RB11. The cloud hanging over his head is Kareem Hunt . Will Chubb give you a great eight weeks and get you into the playoffs only to have his time on the field cut when Hunt returns just in time for it to hurt you in the fantasy playoffs? Do you draft Hunt to protect yourself or is this going to just eat up a bench spot for eight weeks and then leave you with two suboptimal players who are splitting time come playoffs? Dontre Hilliard was taken in Friday’s 20-round draft at 17.12. I believe it was his first appearance on a MDA board. He is clearly the Browns RB2 until week nine and there is some value in that pick.
Duke Johnson ’s stock was most influenced by the trade. He was taken between the 11th and 14th round in the week’s first three drafts. On Thursday and Friday he went in the sixth and eighth. Johnson is a clear number two in Houston and with so many vomit emojis posted after someone picks Lamar Miller , it comes as no surprise. Miller’s ADP went unchanged as no one was super high on him anyway. I feel that he comes as a bargain at his current ADP of 80 in the NFFC, considering he’s a RB1 that will get a majority of the snaps. As a RB3 or RB4, Miller’s chances of making you smile rather than vomit are decent.
Has anything changed in La La Land with the Rams WR trio? Cooks, Kupp and Woods are all being taken in the fourth-to-fifth rounds. In Friday’s mock it was Cooks, Kupp, and then Woods. Thursday it was the same order and all in the fourth round. Monday through Wednesday the orders were all different with each one of them being taken ahead of the other two. It’s clear that the Army likes all three and they feel that the differences between them are minimal. With the questions surrounding Gurley’s knee, any of the three make a good fourth round pick if they’re available where you’re drafting.
On Thursday afternoon it was reported that Jerrick McKinnon would be sidelined for a few weeks after receiving a PRP (platelet rich plasma) injection on his surgically repaired knee. McKinnon had just returned to practice a few days earlier and to have to get this done so early after his return tells me he is going to struggle to return to form this season. When I wrote about Dustin Pedroia in the baseball preseason I was able to clearly tell that he would not be able to return this season and it proved to be correct. As for McKinnon, it is less clear but what is clear is that his return will not be back to 100% and it may be delayed for a few weeks or more. Tevin Coleman , who was thought to be part of a committee, takes a step up here. He still has to battle Matt Breida (who also gets a boost in the rankings), but he clearly gains value here. Coleman rose to the fourth round from the fifthth in Thursday and Friday’s mocks.
Continue to keep an eye on news from the camps. The Mock Draft Army schedule will be released each Sunday night on RTSports, so if you want to see where things are trending in real time, then join us! You can either follow me on twitter @gasdoc_spit or hit me up with a message and your email address and I’ll have you added to the distribution list sent out by RTSports when it’s released. Let’s Go!!!