The first four weeks of survivor picks haven't been too difficult and it's odd. It's usually more challenging.
Avoiding the major traps has been key. There is only one double-digit favorite in Week 5 with the
Buccaneers favored by 10 points over visiting Miami. Only two other games have a spread of more than
seven points.
Here are my top survivor picks for the week:
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Buccaneers are coming off a 19-17 win in New England with Tom
Brady going back to Boston for the first time since leaving. It was an emotional game and the
Buccaneers return home to play a struggling Dolphins team. The Buccaneers have some injuries,
especially in the secondary. Still, the Buccaneers have enough to handle the Dolphins, who lost to
a bad Colts team last week, who possessed the ball for 37 minutes. The Buccaneers are staunch
against the run, allowing 2.7 yards per carry. Many teams don't even bother to run the ball much
and it means Jacoby Brissett has to carry the offense behind a bad offensive line going up against
a strong defensive front of the Buccaneers. The Dolphins have allowed at least 27 points in three
straight games and the one win was 17-16 over New England in which the Patriots lost a fumble
late in the game in Miami territory.
2. Minnesota Vikings: The Vikings are 1-3, but they aren't as bad as the record shows. They lost in
overtime in Week 1 against the Bengals on the road and Cincinnati is better than years past. It's
not a bad loss. In Week 2, the Vikings missed a field goal at the end of the game in a one-point
loss to the Cardinals, who are 4-0. After a win against the Seahawks, the Vikings had an ugly
performance in a 14-7 loss to a good Browns defense. Kirk Cousins has played well with nine
touchdowns and one interception. The Lions are 0-4 and have several injuries on the offensive line
and lost pass rusher Romeo Okwara for the season. The Lions have lost three games by at least
eight points and some of the close games are misleading. The Lions were down by 28 points to the
49ers in Week 1 and had a furious rally late to lose by eight. The 19-17 loss to the Ravens could
have been worse if Marquise Brown didn't drop two touchdown passes. Divisional games can lead
to crazy things, but the Vikings are a better team and will be able to get the win.
3. New England Patriots: The Patriots are favored by 8.5 points on the road against the Texans. The
Patriots are coming off a 19-17 loss to the Buccaneers and played excellent defense. The Texans
are one of the worst teams in football and Bill Belichick tends to confuse rookie quarterbacks.
Davis Mills was held to 87 passing yards and threw four interceptions last week against the Bills.
He has been sacked seven times in two starts. The Texans have scored nine points in their last two
games. The Texans are 29th in yards per play and haven't scored a touchdown since Week 2 and
have made only two trips into the red zone the last two games. The Patriots offense hasn't been
great, but it's a good matchup and the defense should force turnovers creating better opportunities
for the offense.