Here's Your proof: Draft the Pitcher, Not the Round

Published: Feb 20, 2015

It’s funny the way the mind works. For years I’ve been espousing the mantra “draft the pitcher, not the round.” I do my best to explain my reasoning but haven’t been able to really crystalize it in a manner everyone can understand via words

I say things like take this round and juxtapose it with that round and the draft would flow much closer to your rankings. In my warped maze of neurons and synapses, it makes perfect sense. The problem is not everyone is (thankfully) wired like me and in order to get my point across, I need a simpler visual.

Well friends, it came to me while doing dishes earlier, I know exactly how I can make my case. A couple of weeks ago I reviewed the general thought process of my Mixed LABR draft. My main message was the chief concern is drafting players for which I expect a positive return on investment at each spot, but sometimes you’re forced to draft a player you don’t expect will provide a profit based on that spot, but by doing so you’re setting yourself up for even more profit at other spots so the net result is positive.

The means I used to demonstrate how the above made sense is exactly how I should be explaining “draft the pitcher, not the round.” But before I review the method, this is as good a time as any to reiterate my stance on drafting pitching.

Too many times over the years I’ve heard competitors say something like, “I never draft a pitcher until the Xth round.” Sorry, but that’s a mistake. You don’t want to draft the round. You want to draft the pitcher.

Every draft has its own personality. Maybe there’s someone that believes Clayton Kershaw is a top-five pick and the person at the end of the first round feels doubling down on an ace is the way to win. You’re one pick into the second round and three arms are already off the board. Maybe this forces a run on starting pitching. Guys you have ranked as sixth or seventh rounders are being picked and you’re still in round 4. It’s your pick but you refuse to take a pitcher because you never take one before round 6. That’s a mistake. You need to adjust to the flow.

My approach to building a pitching staff is to set tiers of starters and closers. I’ll then decide on several different combinations of each that result in a staff of a certain expectation. As the draft unfolds, I’ll determine which pathway syncs up best with building a solid offense and I’ll time my pitching selections to make sure I’m getting someone in each tier in accordance with how the room is ranking them. Sometimes this means taking a starter I have ranked 75 overall with the 60^th pick. It doesn’t matter. If I want someone from that tier, I need to use the 60^th pick. That’s just how this draft is flowing.

Here’s how you can justify that selecting a player at an apparent loss is actually the wise approach. For a real-life illustration of this exercise, toggle down to the end of the article linked at the beginning; I did this exact process for my Mixed LABR squad.

Set up a list and number each spot according to the pick number in a draft. For example, if you had the 4^th pick in a 12-team draft, the first spot would be 4, the next would be 21 (9^th pick in the second round), the next 28 (4^th pick in the third), etc.
List the players in the order you picked them and compare your rank to the draft spot number. If you subscribe to the “draft the pitcher, not the round” theory, there’s a very good chance there are a handful of draft spots that are lower than your rank, suggesting a negative return at that spot.
Repeat the exercise, this time listing the players in order of YOUR RANK, not the order you drafted them. I promise that you’ll see a projected profit at almost every draft spot. When I did this for my LABR team there wasn’t a loss until the 24^th, the first reserve round.

In essence you’re doing exactly as I described in the beginning, juxtaposing your pick from this round into that round. But honestly, how many of us tune out advice upon hearing the word juxtapose? This is fantasy baseball, not English Literature. Taking 5 minutes to run through these three steps puts it in plain sight so you can clearly understand the benefit of ignoring your rank so you don’t miss out on a run.

You want some hands-on proof? How about this. Fantasy Alarm’s Howard Bender administers a fantastic project, the Mock Draft Army. Every week he sets up mock drafts of all shapes and sizes. Sign up for one…or two, and give this a shot. Set up pitching tiers and a few roadmaps, choose one and stick to it regardless of your normal draft strategy. Then once the mock is complete, do the above comparison to see if you indeed come out ahead after the re-rank.

As an added bonus, here are my current pitching tiers (though the order within each tier might not be exact). Just promise not to snipe me in case I end up in your mock. Don’t laugh, it could happen!

STARTING PITCHERS

Tier 1: Clayton Kershaw

Tier 2: Felix Hernandez, Chris Sale, Stephen Strasburg, Max Scherzer, Madison Bumgarner

Tier 3: David Price, Jordan Zimmermann, Cole Hamels, Johnny Cueto, Zack Greinke, Corey Kluber, James Shields