Silver Linings in the Playbook – Things could be worse in the Steel City

I know I’m not breaking ground here, but consider DeAngelo Williams the best fantasy pickup of the week and quite possibly for the rest of the year. It’s not simply because he will now be getting starting touches due to the unfortunate season ending injury to Le’Veon Bell, but it’s also because he already this season has proven to be successful in this Steelers offensive system. While Bell was suspended in Weeks 1 and 2, Williams combined for 204 rushing yards and three touchdowns against two respectable defenses in the Patriots (who currently rank seventh in the NFL vs. the run) and against the 49ers (who at the time were just coming off a Week 1 win in which they allowed only 31 rushing yards to Adrian Peterson). 

After proving himself in the first two weeks Williams was relegated to the bench after Bell came back from his suspension, yet he continued to patiently wait for more opportunities to come his way. In Week 8, once Bell went down, Williams showed no signs of rust, finishing off the game with nine carries for 71 yards.

Going forward, with Bell now confirmed out for the season, the Steelers have a mixed bag of defenses upcoming on their schedule. There are some tough opponents on there (Seattle, Denver, Oakland) but considering they still have the Colts once and the Browns twice, it seems like Williams might have some big stat lines ahead of him.

While losing Bell ­– one of the best offensive weapons in the game – sounds horrible, the silver lining is that at least Pittsburgh is able to quickly reload and trot out Williams –player with a proven track record in this season and in plenty of years past.

Denver Duo

It seems like I’m discussing this in every edition, but I would be remiss not to mention the ever-changing flavor in the Broncos backfield each week.

After weeks of futility, it appears as though Denver’s offense is getting back on track. In Week 8 against the Packers – considered by many to be a quality NFL defense – the Broncos rushed for 160 yards and three touchdowns split between their two-headed monster backfield. The new spin to this discussion is that this time, both backs seemed to be on their game, with Ronnie Hillman rushing for 60 yards and two touchdowns, and C.J. Anderson rushing for 101 yards and one touchdown.

In past editions I have preached Hillman over Anderson, but with the Broncos' interior offensive line finally becoming a cohesive part of the entire unit, it appears that both backs might become viable fantasy options going forward. Peyton Manning even looks better, so with the threat of him through the air pulling defenders out of the box, the Denver backfield might finally be a positive fantasy influence this season.

If last season is any indication, it also might be a fair assessment that Anderson is poised for a much better second half of the season as opposed to his first half to forget. I’m not trying to give a ringing endorsement here to the biggest fantasy bust of 2015, but he might be a solid buy-low candidate at the moment.

Nostra-DOM-us

So I struggled last week, predicting a low rushing output from both teams involved in the Jets/Raiders game, however I was half right, hopefully keeping fantasy owners away from Chris Ivory, who finished the game with 15 carries for only 17 yards. As for the Chris Johnson prediction, we’ll call it a push, as he still did manage to rush for over 100 yards, however it took him 30 carries to do so.

With a fresh slate this week, I can only take what the schedule is giving me… In Week 8, the Giants were thrashed by a Saints offense that seems to really have found their groove. Aside from the Saints' aerial attack that featured seven passing touchdowns from Drew Brees, quietly, Mark Ingram also averaged 5.0 yards per carry against a porous Giants defense. This marked the third week in a row the Giants allowed a rusher to compile more than 5.0 yards per carry. This streak includes a week where Darren McFadden ran for over 150 yards and one where DeMarco Murray ran for 112 yards on only 21 carries. Why am I telling you this? Well, because the Giants are taking on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 9, a team that is seemingly finding their footing over the last few weeks and coming off a huge win against the now 6-2 Atlanta Falcons on the road. With Jameis Winston getting better each week and getting more comfortable with his outside weapons, I see running back Doug Martin poised for a nice day on the ground, as the Giants will almost certainly have less players in the box after the tragedy committed in their secondary a week ago. Let's say he finishes with at least over 90 rushing yards and 4.5 yards per carry.

Halfway There

I’ll spare you the obligatory Bon Jovi reference and give it to you straight… Believe it or not, the NFL season is now officially halfway in the books. Let that sad news sink in for a minute and when you are ready, take a look at my midseason review.

After a full eight weeks of NFL action, I think it’s relevant to reflect on my regular season backfield previews for both the NFC and AFC. It should come as no surprise that I whiffed on some of my expectations because that’s the nature of the business, but I’m not going to sell myself too short here, either, as I did hit pretty big on some preseason projections as well. Here are my two biggest hits and my two biggest misses from my regular season preview articles:

Swing and a Miss

My two biggest blunders in terms of projecting NFL backfields headed into the season had to be with the Falcons and the Cardinals.

For Atlanta, I was pretty confident Tevin Coleman had won the starting running back job out of training camp, and that his talent greatly outweighed that of Devonta Freeman’s. I couldn’t have been more wrong, as Coleman was injured early on in the season, and seven weeks later, Freeman is the leading fantasy back in the league.

As for Arizona, I truly believed Andre Ellington was a potential star in the making, featuring a Reggie Bush type skillset. I was admittedly too low on Chris Johnson, basically selling all of my stock on him, despite his proven track record of rushing for 1,000-plus yards and over 4.0 yards per carry in almost every year of his professional career. Flash forward to Week 9, and here we sit with CJ2K on pace for 1,352 rushing yards in 2015, and Ellington firmly behind him on the depth chart.

Right on

As for my so-far proven insight, come a couple of AFC backfields featuring young running backs.

Back in early September one of the more hyped fantasy running backs was Melvin Gordon, fresh out of Wisconsin University, coming off a 2,000-plus yard season. In my opinion, he was going way too high in many drafts, and my advice was for fantasy owners to curb their enthusiasm, as the young running back was going to experience a culture shock when he saw how much smaller running lanes were in the NFL as opposed to the Big 10. Sure enough, midway through his rookie season, and he is finding it much tougher to run around defenders, as he’s only tallied 382 rushing yards and zero touchdowns on a measly 3.7 yards per carry. Luckily I added that Danny Woodhead was in store for a huge PPR campaign, and right on queue he is on pace for 80 catches, 888 yards, and four touchdowns as the season stands right now.

In terms of a player I was high on was another rookie in Duke Johnson of the Cleveland Browns. I was convinced the Browns lacked a true feature back, and while Johnson might not be that just yet, he possesses the natural skills to be a multi-faceted threat out of the Cleveland backfield. By the midpoint of the season, Johnson is still not the Browns' leading touch getter just yet, but he is fourth in the NFL in catches by running backs and fifth amongst backs in terms of receiving yards. He has proven to be a dynamic playmaker as a pass catching back, and his contribution in the ground game is surely soon to follow. 

My bonus right on prediction was my advocating for Charcandrick West as the primary backup to Jamaal Charles over the more explosive, yet less polished, Knile Davis. I’ve already gone into detail on this in a previous edition, so I’ll spare you my further self-back-patting.

When all is said and done, and the season is a full 17 weeks in the books, I figure I’ll put out another update, featuring plenty of things different than I stated in this midseason report. Until then, though, let’s enjoy the next two months of regular season football that we have been blessed with, making our depressing winters just a little more bearable.