METS INNINGS ISSUES IN 2016

Manager Terry Collins says there is nothing to worry about with his young arms next season after the made it all the way to the World Series. We shall see. Here are the innings pitched marks of their top-4 arms from 2015 (sorry Bartolo Colon).

216 innings – Matt Harvey

216 innings – Jacob deGrom

198.2 innings – Noah Syndergaard

155.2 innings – Steven Matz

Harvey threw more innings, the first year after Tommy John surgery, than anyone ever. Harvey threw 178 innings in 2013 and then zero in 2014. You really would like to see a guy not exceed his previous season total by much more than 30-40 innings. If you add 40 innings to Harvey’s 2013 total he would be at 218 innings. Realize he didn’t throw one pitch that counted in 2014. He’s at risk, despite that his manager says, and isn’t it comical that after all that innings pitched crap with him that he threw more innings than any TJ guy in his first season back – ever.

deGrom threw 147.2 innings in 2013. In 2014 he tossed 178.1. This year that 216. That’s right on the edge of acceptable. He was still throwing 96 mph in his last start of the season.

Syndergaard threw 103.2 innings in 2012. In 2013 he tossed 117.2. In 2014 he threw 133. He added 52.2 innings this past season. That’s in the danger zone, especially for a guy who hadn’t thrown 135 innings in any season of his life.

Matz threw 106.1 innings in 2013. In 2014 that number was 140.2. That means he didn’t up his innings mark much at all. That’s solid. He’s also not likely to make 33 starts next year even if healthy thought as the team won’t want to push him too hard. “He should be able to get to 190-plus if he stays healthy,” Collins said about Matz. I don’t know about the plus. I would say 180-190 seems about right.

 

If you like to drink beer, well, science says it might be a good thing.

 

WHO IS ALEX GUERRERO?

Wednesday on Twitter I had a bit of a back and forth with a few followers about the outlook of Alex Guerrero and what would happen to him in 2016 if he was given a full season of at-bats. I’m a man of the people so I will speak to their concerns.

First off, Guerrero can’t play defense. The Dodgers tried to find a spot for him in the field last season and they basically determined that his glove is barely passable. Seems like his best chance might be at second base where his bat could play well in the fantasy game. In 2015 with the Dodgers he appeared in 29 games in the outfield and he saw action at 22 games (only 18 starts) at third base, so check your league rules for which positions he will qualify for next year.

Second, the guy has crushed it in the minors. Over 77 games he hit .333 with a .373 OBP and .621 SLG as he bashed 17 homers and drove in 57 runners. There’s no need for him to continue to spend time in the minors.

Third, he has a mere 232 at-bats at the big league level and the nearly 29 year old hasn’t done much with them. Before digging deeper, read that again. As of this writing Guerrero is two weeks from his 29th birthday. This is not a young man.

As for the skills, let’s take a look.

In those 232 big league at-bats Alex has hit .224 with a .251 OBP and .414. That is a pathetic slash line that leaves him with a batting average .030 points below the league average since 2014 and an OPS of .665, well below the .715 league mark. Folks, Guerrero hasn’t even been a league average performer. Guerrero also has a 26 percent K-rate and he’s walked an amazingly pathetic total of seven times in 243 plate appearances leading to a BB/K mark of 0.11. That’s pathetic, and then some.

Guerrero doesn’t steal bases. He has one of those.

As for the power, there’s some here. Notice I used the word “some.” Guerrero hit nine homers his first 93 at-bats last season. He then went on to hit two over his final 116 at-bats. Even when the season was over last year a total of 11 homers in 219 at-bats is still a pretty strong mark. Alas, even that pace is likely to be too high for Guerrero. He had a 17.2 percent HR/F rate, a pretty large mark that likely isn’t sustainable, and with a 1.06 GB/FB rate that is league average it’s not like he’s a big time fly ball hitter.

Add that all up and who is Guerrero? He’s an infielder with no speed, horrible plate discipline, and a little pop. That doesn’t sound too much different than Jedd Gyorko to me. 

 

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