With the 2021 WNBA season nearly upon us, our Team Preview series rolls on with the Indiana Fever. It seems like the Fever have been rebuilding forever, though it could be argued the rebuild can finally begin in earnest now that franchise stalwarts Natalie Achonwa and Candice Dupree have signed elsewhere. Despite missing the playoffs for four consecutive seasons, Indiana does not appear to be anywhere close to breaking that streak. This could be a long season, but Fever fans would likely be happy if some of their recent first-round draft picks can take a step forward.
2020 Results
6-16 Record, 11th in the league. Missed the playoffs for the fourth consecutive season.
Offseason Moves
? Signed free agent Jantel Lavender.
? Signed free agent Danielle Robinson.
? Signed free agent Jessica Breland.
? Signed Kelsey Mitchell to a contract extension.
? Traded Kennedy Burke to Seattle for Aaliyah Wilson
? Suspended Julie Allemand for part of the season.
? Free-agent Candice Dupree signed with Seattle.
? Free-agent Natalie Achonwa signed with Minnesota.
? Free-agent Erica Wheeler signed with Los Angeles.
Draft Results
Indiana delivered the first surprise of draft night, selecting guard Kysre Gondrezick from West Virginia. She should fit well next to Kelsey Mitchell and Victoria Vivians, though her 39.9 field goal percentage last season is a bit worrisome. Gondrezick could start right away with Julie Allemand out, though she is probably the first guard off the bench when everyone is healthy.
Offseason Breakdown
Indiana finally freed up playing time for its young bigs by letting Candice Dupree and Natalie Achonwa go, only to replace them with Jessica Breeland and Jantel Lavender. Those two should come off the bench so Teaira McCowan and Lauren Cox play all the minutes they can handle, but I do not trust Fever head coach Marianne Stanley to do that.
It looks like the Fever are being patient, which is good, but it is unclear if anyone on the roster is a starter on a playoff team. That is a problem four years into a rebuild.
Projected Starting Five
PG Kelsey Mitchell
SG Julie Allemand
SF Victoria Vivians
PF Lauren Cox
C Teaira McCowan
Head coach Marianne Stanley has said she has been impressed with Victoria Vivians, who has started both preseason games and played pretty well. If she is finally healthy, she provides much-needed floor spacing and the ability to attack closeouts.
Kelsey Mitchell and Julie Allemand each started all 22 games last season, and Allemand was second in the league in assists per game, behind only Courtney Vandersloot. They should be locked into the starting lineup, though Allemand will miss some time at the start of the season.
Teaira McCowan and Lauren Cox should both start. This franchise isn’t going anywhere unless both of them develop into high-end starters. Of course, all of that was true last year as well, but there is a difference between bringing Candice Dupree and Natalie Achonwa off the bench and bringing Jessica Breeland and Jantel Lavender off the bench. Lavender especially would probably be better in limited minutes, while Breeland has proven to be league-average at best.
Danielle Robinson started both preseason games, and while I think she is just keeping the seat warm for Julie Allemand, Robinson is a veteran who can organize the offense, so she could stick in that spot. Tiffany Mitchell started 11 games last season and could be in the mix at either wing spot, but I think she has proven she is best providing energy off the bench.
2021 Outlook
Indiana is the only lottery team that doesn’t look like it has improved significantly in the offseason, and I don’t think any of the playoff teams will far fall enough for Indiana to catch them. If I turn out to be wrong, it will likely be because Kelsey Mitchell has another level to get to. The second overall pick in 2018 is coming off her best season. Her per 36 minute numbers were roughly the same as her first two seasons, though she shot a career-high 44.8 percent from the field and 38.9 percent on threes. I think Mitchell benefited from playing next to Julie Allemand, and Mitchell could struggle a bit early on before Allemand returns.
On thing that could hold them back is Teaira McCowan’s propensity for fouling. She averaged 4.5 personal fouls per 36 minutes last season, and while that was down from her rookie year, she needs improve even more in that area.
I actually think Indiana’s young core is pretty good, and they fit well together. The problem is, this team probably has a bottom-three bench in the league. Tiffany Mitchell and Danielle Robinson cannot shoot, and that is a question mark for Gondrezick as well. If she can carry the bench unit along with some help from the veteran bigs, this team could be on its way to respectability.
Betting Outlook
Indiana’s over/under win percentage is 38.5, and I would be shocked if they go over. They won 27 percent of their games last season, and this roster is arguably less talented than that one. If they get a contribution from Victoria Vivians and improvement from Teaira McCowand Lauren Cox they could make me sweat this call, but they could take a step forward and this team could still lose 20 games. I was shocked to see Teaira McCowan doesn’t have MVP odds. I would probably like her better than Kelsey Mitchell, who is +10000. No one else on this team has MVP odds, which is probably as it should be.
Fantasy Outlook
Teaira McCown is the only returning player on this team who averaged more than 0.84 fantasy points per minute last season. She has averaged over a fantasy point per minute in both of her WNBA seasons, and the ceiling is the roof if she can play 25+ minutes per game. Lauren Cox was second on the team in fantasy points per minute, and I think her per-minute production could improve quite a bit with better health, a season under her belt and more consistent playing time. Like McCowan, Cox could be a very nice fantasy value if she seizes a starting role.
Kelsey Mitchell and Julie Allemand certainly could improve their fantasy production as they are both still young, but it could be that neither will have a high enough usage while they are playing together.
The sneaky fantasy play on this team could be Jantel Lavender, especially if she starts. She was very good for Chicago in 2019, though I think head coach James Wade played her too many minutes. Marianne Stanley may be reticent to do the same thing, but she wouldn’t be the first coach to use a veteran big as her security blanket.
The wild card for fantasy as well as real like could be Kysre Gondrezick. If she can live up to her draft spot, she is going to well outperform her fantasy price. If it turns out Indiana reached for her, or this is simply a weak draft class like the 2017 draft class, then she could become a complete afterthought.