UFC 325: Volkanovski vs Lopes takes place this Saturday from Sydney, Australia.  The card kicks off with the Early Prelims at 5:00 PM EST on Paramount+, followed by the Prelims at 7:00 on Paramount+ and finally the Main Card at 9:00 PM on Paramount+.  A huge rematch headlines the card as Alexander Volkanovski looks to score another win over Diego Lopes and hold onto the 145lb title. Lopes is going to march forward and bring the action throughout the entire fight, while Volk will look to keep the distance and fight a more technical approach.  The co-main event features Dan Hooker vs Benoit Saint Denis in what should be an absolute war for as long as it lasts.  This is going to be a great card from beginning to end!

Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below, and always feel free to reach out to me in Discord or on Twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!

 

 


 

MMA DFS Playbook for UFC 325: Volkanovski vs Lopes

Main Event

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Alexander Volkanovski vs Diego Lopes

8500/7700

-

Stackability: Low

-150/ 130

300/185

A rematch for the featherweight belt as all-time great Alex Volkanovski takes on Diego Lopes. Both of these fighters are very well rounded, but I don't really know what has changed in a year. Lopes needs a finish to get this win, and he knows it so expect him to come out quick looking to pressure and finish the fight. Volk is going to try to circle the outside and land combinations to keep Lopes at bay. If Volk avoids the big shot, I expect him to win this fight again.


 

Expensive Fighters

Expensive

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Quillan Salkilld

9700

Jamie Mullarkey

Somewhat-Safe

-800 

-450

The clear top pick this week. Salkilld is a powerful striker, but he can be low volume at times. Mullarkey is talented but his chin has been cracked and it doesn't look like it is going to come back. It might only take one good should from Quillan to end this fight early.

Cam Rowston

9300

Cody Brundage

Somewhat-Safe

-350 

-185

Brundage is a great hammer but a horrible nail. Rowston is huge for this weight class which is normally Brundage's main advantage so he could feel out of place. I expect Rowston to come out pressure early, which will force Brundage into terrible positions. Rowston by R2 finish is my prediction.

Tallison Teixeira

9100

Tai Tuivasa

Somewhat-Safe

-350 

-275

This is going to be a fight with a high score from someone but it is high volatility. I don't love Teixeira's inexperience but Tai was just "retired" for a little while and ballooned up to nearly 340 lbs. Tai looked horrible on the scale so his normal durability might be in question. Teixeira is the younger, hungrier fighter and I expect that to show up if this fight gets greasy.

Benoit Saint Denis

9200

Dan Hooker

Moderate

-333 

-130

Hooker is a great matchup for BSD as his weakness is wrestling and his ground game. BSD has a huge ceiling because if he gets this fight down to the ground he won't just settle into position he will work to get the finish. I'm not sure why Hooker is returning so quickly from his loss against Armen, but that is even more of a reason to back BSD and his power here.

Billy Elekana

8900

Junior Tafa

Moderate

-250 

-115

Tafa is one of the worst fighters in the division and outside of a power counter he has almost no chance of winning this fight. Elekana has better wrestling, cardio, and distance management so he could win this fight anywhere he wants it. He should wear down Tafa early before finding the finish in the second round.




 

Mid-Range Fighters

Mid-Range

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Rafael Fiziev

8000

Mauricio Ruffy

Moderate

-115

400

Fiziev is my favorite underdog in this range this week. Fiziev is a better wrestler, has power striking, and can go all three rounds. Ruffy did move from the Fighting Nerds camp to training with Alex Volkanovski this first time, but I don't think that will make much of a difference.

Oban Elliott

7800

Jonathan Micallef

Moderate

110 

500

Another underdog to in the midrange I like is Oban Elliott. He was a massive favorite last time out but was upset and now finds himself as an underdog. I line this fight closer to Oban -135 and expect him to be able to keep this fight where he wants it and win a decision.

Torrez Finney

7600

Jacob Malkoun

Somewhat-Risky

120 

450

This is a weird week in the midrange. We have multiple fighters who are close to pick'em, and a lot of road to the UFC fighters who have limited tape and are hard to trust. I don't know if Finney wins this fight but I do know that if he does it will be with a ton of wrestling so at his price, he will pay it off. Malkoun is coming off a long layoff and neck surgery so I wouldn't be looking to risk it on a favorite with so many questions, even though at his best Malkoun would probably win this fight. I just don't think we will see prime Malkoun this week.

Dom Mar Fan

8700

Sangwook Kim

Somewhat-Risky

-150 

250

Fan is the rightful favorite here and I think he wins the fight but he is tough to trust. He should be looking to get submissions, but he has such a high inside the distance line for his price that I don't see him getting to it. Most of these Road to the UFC fights are likely to go to decision so I'll likely be fading them for the most part, unless I take shots on underdogs.

Jacob Malkoun

8600

Torrez Finney

Somewhat-Risky

-150 

250

If Malkoun keeps it standing he should be able to dominate this fight with his length and striking, but he isn't a finisher. He has submission skills and is the BJJ coach for some of the stars like Robert Whittaker, but I don't know if he will be looking to get to the ground with Finney.

Keiichiro Nakamura

8100

Sebastian Szalay

Somewhat-Risky

110 

200

He has the reach advantage, but this is going to be a close fight. Neither of these fighters’ wrestle, and neither are really a prospect as Nakamura is 37 years old and Szalay is 32 years old. I give Nakamura the edge but I don't feel strongly about this fight.

Mauricio Ruffy

8200

Rafael Fiziev

Risky

-125 

225

Ruffy is a small favorite, and while I am backing Fiziev I do think that Ruffy's best chance of winning is a highlight reel finish. I see some suggesting Ruffy will look to wrestle now that he is with Volk, but I don't really see that happening. High upside but needs a finish to pay his price.



 

Paydown Fighters

Pay-Downs 

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Sangwook Kim

7500

Dom Mar Fan

Somewhat-Risky

125

400

Kim is a small underdog here, but his price is very fair. We see some cards where anyone in this price range is +225 or worse but this is a card with a lot of tightly contested contests. He has experience over Fan, and if he avoids the submissions he could win this fight.

Lawrence Lui

7200

Sulangrangbo

Somewhat-Risky

220

350

Lui is going to look to wrestle, and if he gets the fight down he will score well for his price. I don't see him finishing the fight, so a score of around 80-85 in a decision win would be his ceiling but that might be enough at his price.

Kaan Ofli

7400

Yi Yizha

Risky

163 

450

Ofli is a fine fighter and this is a close fight, but he is so inactive in the cage. His UFC average is around 2 significant strikes per minute and he doesn't look to wrestle much. I expect him to get outworked unless he shows a new wrinkle to his game.

Junior Tafa

7300

Billy Elekana

Risky

200 

300

Tafa has a high ceiling but he isn't going to do much outside of a KO. He has power but his footwork and wrestling are not good. High ceiling, but even in a decision win he wouldn't score 60 pts.

Dan Hooker

7000

Benoit Saint Denis

Risky

250 

450

Hooker is a great counter wrestler, but he is two months removed from a loss. I don't like how quickly he is taking this fight, but he is a true warrior who will fight for your money. If this becomes a back and fourth striking battle he could pull this off, he just needs to avoid ending up on the bottom for long periods of time.

Cody Brundage

6900

Cam Rowston

Risky

260 

400

Brundage has a wrestling background but he rarely uses it. He is the king of winning by DQ which does give you the win bonus on DK but I don't want to back someone who is going to look for the DQ win.

Jamie Mullarkey

6500

Quillan Salkilld

Risky

500 

1100

Jamie is a talented wrestler, and if it wasn't for his chin he would be closer to +175, but unfortunately his chin is going to come into play here. One good shot and this fight is over.



 

 

Sample Lineup

Live Dogs

Lopes, Hooker, Fiziev, Finney, Elliott

Picks and Stats

   

Alexander Volkanovski

vs

Diego Lopes

$8,500

DFS Salary

$7,700

Record: 27-4-0 

Record

Record: 27-7-0 

13

Knockouts

11

3

Subs

12

-150 

Vegas Odds

130 

   

Dan Hooker

vs

Benoit Saint Denis

$7,000

DFS Salary

$9,200

Record: 24-13-0 

Record

Record: 16-3-0 (1 NC) 

11

Knockouts

5

7

Subs

11

250 

Vegas Odds

-333 

   

Rafael Fiziev

vs

Mauricio Ruffy

$8,000

DFS Salary

$8,200

Record: 13-4-0 

Record

Record: 12-2-0 

8

Knockouts

11

1

Subs

0

-115

Vegas Odds

-125 

   

Tai Tuivasa

vs

Tallison Teixeira

$7,100

DFS Salary

$9,100

Record: 15-8-0 

Record

Record: 8-1-0 

13

Knockouts

7

0

Subs

1

260 

Vegas Odds

-350 

   

Quillan Salkilld

vs

Jamie Mullarkey

$9,700

DFS Salary

$6,500

Record: 10-1-0 

Record

Record: 18-8-0 

4

Knockouts

10

3

Subs

3

-800 

Vegas Odds

500 

 

0

 

Junior Tafa

vs

Billy Elekana

$7,300

DFS Salary

$8,900

Record: 6-4-0 

Record

Record: 9-2-0 

6

Knockouts

3

0

Subs

2

200 

Vegas Odds

-250 

   

Cam Rowston

vs

Cody Brundage

$9,300

DFS Salary

$6,900

Record: 13-3-0 

Record

Record: 11-7-1 (1 NC) 

5

Knockouts

6

7

Subs

3

-350 

Vegas Odds

260 

   

Jacob Malkoun

vs

Torrez Finney

$8,600

DFS Salary

$7,600

Record: 8-3-0 

Record

Record: 11-0-0 

3

Knockouts

7

0

Subs

1

-150 

Vegas Odds

120 

   

Jonathan Micallef

vs

Oban Elliott

$8,400

DFS Salary

$7,800

Record: 8-1-0 

Record

Record: 12-3-0 

2

Knockouts

3

3

Subs

3

-138 

Vegas Odds

110 

   

Kaan Ofli

vs

Yizha

$7,400

DFS Salary

$8,800

Record: 13-4-1 

Record

Record: 26-5-0 

2

Knockouts

6

6

Subs

14

163 

Vegas Odds

-200 

   

Sangwook Kim

vs

Dom Mar Fan

$7,500

DFS Salary

$8,700

Record: 13-3-0 

Record

Record: 8-2-0 

1

Knockouts

5

3

Subs

4

125

Vegas Odds

-150 

   

Keiichiro Nakamura

vs

Sebastian Szalay

$8,100

DFS Salary

$8,100

Record: 7-1-0 

Record

Record: 10-1-0 

2

Knockouts

6

1

Subs

0

110 

Vegas Odds

-138 

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