UFC 319: Du Plessis vs Chimaev takes place this Saturday live from Las Vegas.  The card kicks off with the Early Prelims at 6:00 PM EST on ESPN+, followed by the Prelims at 8:00 on ESPN/ESPN+ and the Main Card at 10:00 PM on ESPN+ PPV.  The Main Event is a title fight in the Middle Weight division as Dricus Du Plessis takes on Khamzat Chimaev in what should be an action-packed main event, as Khamzat is always looking to come out pushing a pace, and Dricus is always pushing forward as well.

Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below, and always feel free to reach out to me in Discord or on Twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!

 

 


 

MMA DFS Playbook for UFC 319: Du Plessis vs Chimaev

Main Event

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Dricus Du Plessis vs Khamzat Chimaev

7300/8900

-

Stackability: Low

196/ -200

380/-140

The middle weight title is on the line this week and these are two absolute powerhouses of the division. Dricus is very unconventional, he strikes from weird angles, ends up in awkward grappling exchanges, and all in all is fun to watch. Chimaev is explosive, especially early on and his wrestling is some of the best in the division. Chimaev is going to win round 1, and he might just win the fight in the first round, but we saw against Burns and Usman that if he can't finish the fight he slows down. If Burns or Usman fights were five rounders, I think he would have lost them. I'm leaning that Chimaev gets it done early after Dricus puts himself in a bad spot, but if this gets out of Round 1 Dricus could end up winning the fight. From a DK perspective both are live and very well could put up huge scores, I'm leaning that Chimaev gets the R1 sub.


 

Expensive Fighters

Expensive

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Chase Hooper

9300

Alexander Hernandez

Somewhat-Safe

-325 

+100 

Hooper puts up absurd volume and has great grappling so if Hernandez tires out at all he probably gets the finish. Early on this could be a tough test, but Hooper has really been making improvements as he hits his mid 20's so I'm going to keep picking him until he shows me a reason not to.
Baisangur Susurkaev

9600

Eric Nolan

Somewhat-Safe

-800

#N/A

He's in on four-day notice but so is his opponent. He looked strong, aggressive, and dominant in his Contender Series fight on Tuesday. I would feel better if he wasn't being rushing in but I'm confident he can get the win and do it in dominant fashion either with his power wrestling or striking.
Alibi Idiris

9400

Joseph Morales

Somewhat-Safe

-355 

#N/A

This is the finals for this season of "The Ultimate Fighter". Idiris is the better wrestler; he should be able to control where the fight takes place. Morales was in the UFC almost a decade ago so he isn't some young up and coming prospect. I expect Idiris to get it done here.
Michal Oleksiejczuk

9000

Gerald Meerschaert

Moderate

-250 

-135

I really like Mikey O this week, and it's for no reason other than if he wins, it is likely in Round 1. I guess there is a second reason, he has been training his full camp with the fighting nerds so he's seen plenty of submission looks from them so I don't expect GM3 to be able to find a sub unless Mikey O gets tired.
Kai Asakura

9200

Tim Elliott

Moderate

-350 

130

Elliott is the wild card of this whole slate since he hasn't fought at 125 in a few years. Asakura didn't look great in his UFC debut, but they matched him up in a title shot against someone that he was nervous about their wrestling so he never really got started. Elliott is a good wrestler too but unlike Pantoja I don't see him coming out and spamming 9 successful takedowns. He can win this by KO if he catches Elliott cleanly.



 

Mid-Range Fighters

Mid-Range

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Loopy Godinez

8400

Jessica Andrade

Moderate

-154 

+550 

This fight is tough because Jessica Andrade has been very vocal that she was going through a divorce that cost her a lot of money and she was fighting very frequently so she could get back most of the money she lost as the breadwinner of the marriage. If we get vintage Andrade, she wins this on the feet, but I don't think that happens. Godinez should be good enough to get a few takedowns and lately Andrade has been quick to tap and doesn't look to really fight to get out of bad positions. 
Edson Barboza

8300

Drakkar Klose

Somewhat-Risky

-142 

+225 

Hopefully Barboza can turn back the clock one more time, and in terms of kickboxing he is going to be the better fighter. Klose is a well-rounded fighter but I don't think he is going to really look to use the wrestling as much as he should. The mid-range this week doesn't have too many options with high ceilings, but Barboza can KO anyone at any time.
Lerone Murphy

8000

Aaron Pico

Somewhat-Risky

132 

+600 

I think Murphy wins the fight and at $8000 that is good enough. He is going to have to keep the fight standing because Pico's wrestling is very good, but even if he gets taken down, I'm confident he can get back up. Pico has been KO'd three times and while I think this is likely going to be a decision, if anyone is getting KO’d, I think it is Pico.
Aaron Pico

8200

Lerone Murphy

Somewhat-Risky

-170 

+240 

I don't even think Pico wins this fight, but if he does it is going to be with a ton of wrestling. Pico is an Olympic level wrestler, and has power to match, but his chin has given up on him a few times. He has the upside in this fight even if it goes to a decision.
Jessica Andrade

7800

Loopy Godinez

Risky

126 

+400 

Andrade at her best will land 100+ significant strikes and for the first time in a while she isn't giving up a reach advantage. If they trade in the pocket and this fight stays standing, she can run away with this fight.



 

Paydown Fighters

Pay-Downs 

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Jared Cannonier

7500

Michael Page

Somewhat-Risky

158 

+550 

I thought Cannonier would be a favorite this week, but I think this is going to be an underwhelming fight. Page moves so well that it leads to the winning fighter only being able to land 50 significant strikes and maybe a takedown or two. At his price he doesn't need to score 100+ to hit the optimal lineup, but he still has the upside if he decides to use his wrestling.
Gerald Meerschaert

7200

Michal Oleksiejczuk

Somewhat-Risky

190 

300

GM3 is the high upside play in this range. I don't think he has a chance early in this fight, but after 7.5 minutes if someone gets the finish, I expect it to be Gerald. His submission game is always strong, but his wrestling isn't great so he needs to wait for his opponent to slow before he can bring the fight to the ground.
Geoff Neal

7100

Carlos Prates

Risky

200 

400

Prates is a tough fighter to fade because his power is there every round but he was hesitant to pull the trigger last time out. I expect this fight to be extremely close, and Neal has never been KO'd so although Prates has a ton of power, I'm not sure he'll be able to land it. If both fighters are going to land 70-80 significant strikes, I'll just side with the underdog.
Tim Elliott

7000

Kai Asakura

Risky

255 

+600 

Elliott hasn't fought at 125lbs in a few years so I'm not sure how I feel about him coming back to this weight class. He has clear wrestling advantages so hopefully he just keeps shooting and keeps this fight at close range. In space Asakura is going to be the much quicker fighter and I think Elliott is aware of that from the interviews I've seen from him this week.
Dione Barbosa

7400

Karine Silva

Risky

180 

+700 

Barbosa has a decent chance to win, but I expect this to be a low volume affair and she's giving up on power and wrestling. They should land and throw around the same number of strikes, but there are too many ways for Karine to win this week for me to prioritize her.
Alexander Hernandez

6900

Chase Hooper

Risky

250 

+500 

Hernandez for the first 7.5 minutes should be able to keep the fight standing (top 5 takedown defense % in the division), but the pace that Hooper puts on is tough to keep up with. I expect Hooper to get a late finish, but if Hernandez can dominate the early part of this fight, he might be able to hold on long enough for a decision.
Joseph Morales

6800

Alibi Idiris

Risky

270 

#N/A

Morales was in the UFC nearly ten years ago but he's a much better fighter now. He won his last fight on TUF by a very close decision, but he did use some wrestling in that fight. I think Alibi is the better wrestler here, and his volume is much higher than Morales as well. Morales has UFC experience, so while I would normally give him more credibility, I just don't think he does enough to get it done. Although I think he is less likely to win than Barbosa, I am more likely to actually play him than her.
Eric Nolan

6600

Baisangur Susurkaev

Risky

520 

#N/A

This fight only came together on Wednesday so both of them are in on short notice. Nolan was brought in here to lose as Susurkaev is one of Chimaev's teammates and he was trying to get him on the card. If you are playing in a contest with 5000+ entries you can use him as a leverage play (he should be around 5% owned) and if he wins, you'll likely kill off 40% of the field.


 

Sample Lineup

A screenshot of a computer AI-generated content may be incorrect.

Live Dogs

Du Plessis, Elliott, Andrade, Cannonier, Neal

Picks and Stats

   

Dricus Du Plessis

vs

Khamzat Chimaev

$7,300

DFS Salary

$8,900

Record: 23-2-0

Record

Record: 14-0-0

9

Knockouts

6

11

Subs

6

196

Vegas Odds

-200

   

Lerone Murphy

vs

Aaron Pico

$8,000

DFS Salary

$8,200

Record: 16-0-1

Record

Record: 13-4-0

7

Knockouts

9

0

Subs

2

132

Vegas Odds

+145

   

Geoff Neal

vs

Carlos Prates

$7,100

DFS Salary

$9,100

Record: 16-6-0

Record

Record: 21-7-0

10

Knockouts

16

2

Subs

3

200

Vegas Odds

-265

   

Jared Cannonier

vs

Michael Page

$7,500

DFS Salary

$8,700

Record: 18-8-0

Record

Record: 23-3-0

10

Knockouts

12

3

Subs

4

158

Vegas Odds

-205

   

Tim Elliott

vs

Kai Asakura

$7,000

DFS Salary

$9,200

Record: 21-13-1

Record

Record: 21-5-0

3

Knockouts

13

7

Subs

3

255

Vegas Odds

-350

 

0

 

Baisangur Susurkaev

vs

Eric Nolan

$9,600

DFS Salary

$6,600

Record: 9-0-0

Record

Record: 8-3-0

8

Knockouts

4

0

Subs

2

-800

Vegas Odds

520

   

Gerald Meerschaert

vs

Michal Oleksiejczuk

$7,200

DFS Salary

$9,000

Record: 37-19-0

Record

Record: 20-9-0 (1 NC)

6

Knockouts

15

29

Subs

1

190

Vegas Odds

-250

   

Jessica Andrade

vs

Loopy Godinez

$7,800

DFS Salary

$8,400

Record: 26-14-0

Record

Record: 13-5-0

10

Knockouts

0

8

Subs

3

126

Vegas Odds

-154

   

Chase Hooper

vs

Alexander Hernandez

$9,300

DFS Salary

$6,900

Record: 16-3-1

Record

Record: 16-8-0

4

Knockouts

6

8

Subs

2

-325

Vegas Odds

250

   

Edson Barboza

vs

Drakkar Klose

$8,300

DFS Salary

$7,900

Record: 24-12-0 

Record

Record: 15-3-1 

13

Knockouts

6

2

Subs

0

-142 

Vegas Odds

116 

   

Karine Silva

vs

Dione Barbosa

$8,800

DFS Salary

$7,400

Record: 18-5-0 

Record

Record: 8-3-0 

8

Knockouts

0

9

Subs

4

-225 

Vegas Odds

180 

   

Alibi Idiris

vs

Joseph Morales

$9,400

DFS Salary

$6,800

Record: 11-0-0 

Record

Record: 13-2-0 

4

Knockouts

2

1

Subs

6

-355 

Vegas Odds

270 

 

Â