MMA DFS Playbook UFC Vegas 59: Top DraftKings DFS Picks
UPDATE: The fight between Jason Witt and Josh Quinlan is OFF the UFC Vegas 59 card and re-scheduled for next week. Additionally, the fight between Ariane Lipski and Priscila Cachoeira is OFF the UFC Vegas 59 card as well.
The UFC returns to the Apex in Las Vegas for UFC Fight Night Santos vs Hill. This card will also serve as the finale for “The Ultimate Fighter'' reality show highlighting the Men’s Heavyweight and Women's Bantamweight division. This card kicks off on ESPN at 7PM with the prelims, and the Main card to follow at 10PM.
Check out all of the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck in your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Vegas 59
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Thiago Santos vs Jamahal Hill | 7200/9000 | - | Stackability: Low | +250/ -300 | +380/-175 |
| Two Light Heavyweights moving in the opposite direction face off in the main event this week in Las Vegas at the UFC Apex. Both fighters come in primarily as strikers but bring different things to the table.. Hill will come with pace and volume, while Santos looks to utilize his power that earned him a title shot against Jon Jones. Hill is the rightful favorite and can hit the optimal lineup with volume in a decision or by finish, Santos will not be on the optimal unless he gets a KO within the first two rounds as he doesn't land much volume and rarely wrestles. I'm backing Hill as he continues to rise in the division. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Terrance McKinney | 9500 | Erick Gonzalez | Somewhat-Safe | -850 | -400 |
| McKinney comes in as the biggest favorite on the card and is -200 to win in the first round. His style is perfect for fantasy scoring as he comes out fast and looks to finish the fight. The only concern with him is if Gonzales survives the first round, which doesn't seem likely, will he be able to keep the pace going. | |||||
| Michal Oleksiejczuk | 9300 | Sam Alvey | Somewhat-Safe | #N/A | -125 |
| Mikey O comes in as a huge favorite vs UFC veteran Sam Alvey. Sam Alvey is 0-6-1 in his last 7 and his trademark durability has disappeared recently as he was finished in two of his last three. Michal likely won't get there with volume but he is likely to find a finish here so he makes for a safe play at likely lower ownership than McKinney | |||||
| Cory McKenna | 9100 | Miranda Granger | Risky | -210 | +300 |
| Mckenna is the last high priced fighter outside of the main event and likely the lowest owned for good reason. McKenna is a large favorite with a 10 inch reach disadvantage so she needs to get her wrestling going to likely have any shot to win here. I'd normally target a large favorite at low ownership who has a wrestling advantage in the smaller octagon of the Apex, but she was just in a similar situation against Elise Reed and didn't use her wrestling heavily until R3 which resulted in her losing the fight. There are better targets to spend your money on, and cheaper fighters who are larger favorites. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Serghei Spivac | 8800 | Augusto Sakai | Moderate | -280 | -120 |
| Spivac comes in with the clear wrestling advantage in this spot against a kickboxer in Sakai. Spivac is coming off a ragdolling of Greg Hardy where he scored 3 takedowns in R1 and he needs to implement a similar game plan here as anytime spent on the feet is in Sakai's wheelhouse. This fight is pretty volatile as Sakai will likely win by finish if he does, but Spivac's path to a win even in a decision involves multiple takedowns and control time so he should score well as long as he avoids Sakai's power. | |||||
| Josh Quinlan | 8600 | Jason Witt | Moderate | -245 | -125 |
| Quinlan is coming in with serious odds value being -245 for only $8600 which could lead to some decent ownership. Josh has finished all 5 of his professional wins and now takes on the task of facing Jason Witt and his suspect chin. I’m backing Quinlan to get the early finish here. | |||||
| Bryan Battle | 8700 | Takashi Sato | Somewhat-Risky | -285 | +200 |
| Bryan Battle is coming off 2 straight wins in the UFC after winning The Ultimate Fighter competition and this looks like a spot for him to shine. Battle has shown his ability to land volume scoring 112 significant strikes last time out on top of takedowns in both of his UFC fights. Sato is a notoriously slow starter having never won the first round in any of his UFC fights. Battle should take over early, and never take his foot off the gas in a fight that likely sees the judges scorecards. | |||||
| Zac Pauga | 8900 | Mohammed Usman | Somewhat-Risky | -250 | +150 |
| The favorite in the Heavyweight TUF finale Pauga comes in with a major speed advantage in this fight against Mohammed Usman, the brother of UFC Champion Kamaru. Neither of these fighters will likely wrestle so I don't see them scoring well without a finish. Pauga should be faster here and land with more volume, but the only red flag for him is that he was fighting at light heavyweight before the TUF show and this will technically be his first professional fight at heavyweight (2-0 in the TUF house at heavyweight). I would look elsewhere to spend the $8900 as the volume in a decision likely won't be enough. | |||||
| Juliana Miller | 8300 | Brogan Walker | Somewhat-Risky | +400 | |
| The women's half of the TUF Finale finds submission specialist Miller vs Brogan Walker. Miller reminds me of a discount version of Nate Diaz, trying to get in the opponent's face with pressure from the start. I think the small octagon really favors Miller as she is going to look to get this fight against the cage or on the ground. The fight likely doesn't finish but if it does, it is likely Miller by submission. For $8300 she could score enough in a decision to make optimal. | |||||
| Vicente Luque | 8500 | Geoff Neal | Somewhat-Risky | -180 | +140 |
| Fan favorite Luque faces a tough test in Geoff Neal in this week's Co-Main Event. Normally Luque's fights are great targets since he likes to pressure his opponents but Geoff Neal has the type of power that may cause him to fight more cautiously. Neal has never been finished in his UFC career and I don't see that starting here. Luque likely wins a decision but without much wrestling in Luque's past few fights he likely doesn't payoff the salary | |||||
| Ariane Lipski | 8400 | Priscila Cachoeira | Risky | -175 | +250 |
| "The Violence Queen" returns to action against "Zombie Girl" in a high volume fight. I'm putting Lipski low on this list because I think she is least likely to win out of everyone in this group, but in a decision win she can score more than almost anyone else. Sometimes DFS isn't about the fighter you pick but about the person across the Octagon and Cachoeira is the perfect dance partner. Cachoeira comes forward relentlessly which creates high volatility fights, but also results in great fantasy scores. In Cachoeiras 4 UFC losses her opponents have never scored under 90pts, and I expect that trend to continue as long as Lipski can find a way to win this fight. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Priscila Cachoeira | 7800 | Ariane Lipski | Somewhat-Risky | +150 | +425 |
| Zombie Girl likes to press the pressure in all of her fights. In a fight that likely hits the judges scorecard the volatility of the chaos she creates could lead to a decision win. | |||||
| Geoff Neal | 7700 | Vicente Luque | Somewhat-Risky | #N/A | +330 |
| Neal has the type of power that can end anyone's night early, and Luque has shown the inability to have sound defense in the past. Neal is likely KO or bust, but at $7700 there are few underdogs who have his ceiling. | |||||
| Jason Witt | 7600 | Josh Quinlan | Risky | +205 | +550 |
| The only way Jason Witt wins the fight is to take Quinlan to the ground where he can't get knocked out. He likely gets his night ended early, but if he can survive to the judges scorecards its because he controlled the fight on the ground and will put up a nice fantasy score. | |||||
| Augusto Sakai | 7400 | Serghei Spivac | Risky | +235 | +450 |
| Another underdog that is KO or bust. Sakai has the power to KO anyone and the volatility of the heavyweight division is something to embrace when trying to win GPPs. | |||||
| Stephanie Egger | 8000 | Mayra Bueno Silva | Risky | -125 | +350 |
| Egger will look to clinch and get this fight on the ground where she has had success her last few fights. If she gets the fight to the mat she likely wins this fight and scores well. The only red flag is the line flipped so she is the favorite at $8000 which could lead to inflated ownership. | |||||
| Miranda Granger | 7100 | Cory McKenna | Risky | +180 | +650 |
| Rarely does a fighter with a 10 inch reach advantage come in as a huge underdog but we have that here. If the fight stays standing she can win this fight, but she doesn't have much of a ceiling. I won't rule her out of being on the optimal lineup with her low salary, but for that to happen other fights have to play out perfectly. | |||||
| Sam Alvey | 6900 | Michal Oleksiejczuk | Risky | +450 | +850 |
| Sam Alvey in the last fight on his UFC contract may just come out guns blazing looking to make a statement. This fight takes place at 185 pounds and his Oleksiejczuk's first time fighting at that weight in the UFC, so a bad weight cut and fluke KO could be live. | |||||
| Mohammed Usman | 7300 | Zac Pauga | Risky | +210 | +350 |
| Could Usman be destined for UFC gold like his brother? Probably not, but a greasy decision for the champs brother wouldn't be the worst thing the UFC could do. | |||||
UFC Vegas 59 DraftKings Example Lineup
| Fighter | Salary | Opponent |
| Battle | $8700 | Sato |
| Cachoeira | $7800 | Lipski |
| Luque | $8500 | Neal |
| McKinney | $9500 | Gonzalez |
| Walker | $7900 | Miller |
| Witt | $7,600 | Quinlan |
UFC Vegas 59 Live Dogs
Cachoeira, Sakai, Granger, Bueno Silva, Neal
UFC Vegas 59 Stats and Picks
Thiago Santos | vs | Jamahal Hill |
$7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
Record: 22-10-0 | Record | Record: 10-1-0 (1 NC) |
15 | Knockouts | 6 |
1 | Subs | 0 |
+265 | Vegas Odds | -320 |
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Vicente Luque | vs | Geoff Neal |
$8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
Record: 21-8-1 | Record | Record: 14-4-0 |
11 | Knockouts | 8 |
8 | Subs | 2 |
-180 | Vegas Odds | +155 |
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Mohammed Usman | vs | Zac Pauga |
$7,300 | DFS Salary | $8,900 |
Record: 8-2-0 | Record | Record: 6-0-0 |
3 | Knockouts | 1 |
2 | Subs | 0 |
+230 | Vegas Odds | -275 |
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Brogan Walker | vs | Juliana Miller |
$7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
Record: 8-2-0 | Record | Record: 3-1-0 |
0 | Knockouts | 0 |
1 | Subs | 2 |
+100 | Vegas Odds | -120 |
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Augusto Sakai | vs | Serghei Spivac |
$7,400 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
Record: 15-4-1 | Record | Record: 14-3-0 |
11 | Knockouts | 6 |
0 | Subs | 6 |
+235 | Vegas Odds | -280 |
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Ariane Lipski | vs | Priscila Cachoeira |
$8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
Record: 14-7-0 | Record | Record: 11-4-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 6 |
3 | Subs | 0 |
-175 | Vegas Odds | +150 |
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Sam Alvey | vs | Michal Oleksiejczuk |
$6,900 | DFS Salary | $9,300 |
Record: 33-17-1 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 16-5-0 (1 NC) |
19 | Knockouts | 8 |
3 | Subs | 2 |
+450 | Vegas Odds | -600 |
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Terrance McKinney | vs | Erick Gonzalez |
$9,500 | DFS Salary | $6,700 |
Record: 12-4-0 | Record | Record: 14-6-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 8 |
7 | Subs | 1 |
-850 | Vegas Odds | +600 |
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Bryan Battle | vs | Takashi Sato |
$8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
Record: 8-1-0 | Record | Record: 16-5-0 |
1 | Knockouts | 11 |
4 | Subs | 2 |
-285 | Vegas Odds | +240 |
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Jason Witt | vs | Josh Quinlan |
$7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
Record: 19-8-0 | Record | Record: 5-0-0 (1 NC) |
3 | Knockouts | 3 |
8 | Subs | 2 |
+205 | Vegas Odds | -245 |
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Cory McKenna | vs | Miranda Granger |
$9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
Record: 6-2-0 | Record | Record: 7-2-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 1 |
1 | Subs | 5 |
-210 | Vegas Odds | +180 |
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Mayra Bueno Silva | vs | Stephanie Egger |
$8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
Record: 8-2-1 | Record | Record: 7-2-0 |
1 | Knockouts | 3 |
5 | Subs | 3 |
+105 | Vegas Odds | -125 |
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