MMA DFS Playbook UFC Fight Night Vera vs. Cruz: Top DraftKings DFS Picks
The UFC returns to San Diego on Saturday for UFC Fight Night Vera vs. Cruz as part of UFC on ESPN 41. This MMA DFS playbook will focus on building UFC daily fantasy lineups on DraftKings. The Saturday fight card kicks off on ESPN at 4 pm ET with the prelims, and the Main card to follow at 7 pm ET. Check out all of the latest UFC Vegas odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below before you build those UFC DFS lineups. As always feel free to reach out to me in Discord or on Twitter at @consortiumDFS as you enter those UFC daily picks. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck in your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Fight Night Vera vs Cruz
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Marlon Vera vs Dominick Cruz | 8500/7700 | - | Stackability: Moderate | -230/ +195 | +215/+750 |
| The Main Event for the week takes place at 135 pounds for these two veterans of the sport. There is an off chance a stack here works out even in GPPs if this becomes similar to Vera vs Font , but for me I am going to be siding with Vera to find a way to get the win and possibly a late finish. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Gabriel Benitez | 9300 | Charlie Ontiveros | Somewhat-Safe | -350 | -225 |
| Gabriel Benitez comes in as a large favorite against the wildman Charlie Ontiveros. The Under 1.5 rounds is -230 so expect fireworks for as long as this fight lasts. Benitez has shown much better durability than Ontiveros and I expect him to be able to survive early and find a finish with one of his powerful kicks in round 1 or 2. | |||||
| Josh Quinlan | 9100 | Jason Witt | Somewhat-Safe | -250 | -120 |
| Quinlan's blood work last week showed trace amounts of the PEDs he was banned for still in his system and while Nevada wouldn't sanction the fight, California is allowing it. Quinlan is the better striker with much more power and Witt has always had a suspect chin. Unless Witt can keep this fight on the ground for 10+ minutes I think Quinlan finds the knockout here. | |||||
| Bruno Silva | 9000 | Gerald Meerschaert | Somewhat-Safe | -285 | -165 |
| Silva showed amazing durability last time out against title challenger Pereira and even landed some real solid shots himself. His power can crack the chin of Meerschaert and I expect him to land early and often. Meerschaert does have a path to victory with his wrestling and BJJ but Silva is strong enough on the ground to avoid the submissions, Silva by KO. | |||||
| Loopy Godinez | 9200 | Angela Hill | Moderate | -325 | +350 |
| This is a huge step up in competition for Godinez this week against Angela Hill. Personally I think the line should be closer than the -325 Godinez is here, but her path to victory to secure multiple takedowns against Hill will score well on DraftKings in a win. Out of the high priced fighters I think Godinez is most likely to end up on optimal if everyone goes to decision, with that said she is also the least likely to find a finish. She is strong cash play as even in a loss I expect her to score 50+ points. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| David Onama | 8600 | Nate Landwehr | Moderate | -275 | -120 |
| Onama is coming in with serious odds value here at -275 for only $8600 in price when fights like Quinlan and Silva are the same odds for $400-500 more expensive. Onama lands at an incredibly high rate, landing 86 strikes in his debut fight where he was taken down 8 times and nearly 40 in a first round finish in his second fight. Landwehr likes to meet his opponents in the middle and throw down so expect fireworks and a high score from Onama | |||||
| Marlon Vera | 8500 | Dominick Cruz | Moderate | -230 | +215 |
| The favorite in the five round main event against the crafty Cruz will need to keep the pressure on and hope to break Cruz as the fight goes into the later rounds. Vera is a notorious slow starter and will need to weather the early storm to score big here. Vera will likely be landing with more power than Dom so as long as he is trading one for one he should be winning the exchanges. I think Marlon drops Dom late and secures a win. | |||||
| Azamat Murzakanov | 8400 | Devin Clark | Somewhat-Risky | -145 | +120 |
| Murzakanov won his UFC debut by flying knee which sounds great if you didn't watch the fight. He was slow to let his hands go only landing 25 sig strikes through two rounds and didn't utilize his wrestling much at all. Clark is hittable and has been rocked early in a bunch of his fights so if he lets the hands fly he could get the early KO. | |||||
| Ariane Lipski | 8700 | Priscila Cachoeira | Somewhat-Risky | -195 | +200 |
| "The Violence Queen" Lipski should be a war here with Cachoeira as both woman like to march forward. Cachoeira is incredibly hittable and has suspect takedown defense so I expect Lipski to take this fight where she wants it. High volume plus the chance to finish could lead to a nice score for Lipski. | |||||
| Martin Buday | 8900 | Lukasz Brzeski | Somewhat-Risky | -280 | -110 |
| Buday likes to clinch and get the fight against the cage and he should have a 30+ pound advantage in this spot as though Brzeski is a heavyweight he normally weights in around 230 pounds. Buday should be able to wear on him and find the finish but even if he does it will likely look ugly. | |||||
| Devin Clark | 7800 | Azamat Murzakanov | Somewhat-Risky | +125 | +380 |
| Clark's path to victory in most of his fights is to wrestle, clinic, and generally tire his opponent out. When he finds a way to win he normally scores well on DraftKings scoring over 85 in 6 of his 7 wins which could get him onto the optimal lineup | |||||
| Dominick Cruz | 7700 | Marlon Vera | Risky | +195 | +750 |
| The underdog in the main event comes in with a more well-rounded skill set but not nearly as much finishing ability. For Cruz to win he likely has to utilize his wrestling to nullify the relentless pace Vera will try to put on. I don't see him getting finished early so he makes for a pretty safe cash game play. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Priscila Cachoeira | 7500 | Ariane Lipski | Somewhat-Risky | +165 | +500 |
| Cachoeira is in for a war with Lipski, if she can keep the fight standing she can score enough on the feet to make the optimal lineup. Out of all of the fighters below $7500 she is also most likely to find a finish by knockout. | |||||
| Jason Witt | 7100 | Josh Quinlan | Somewhat-Risky | +210 | +600 |
| Witt needs to wrestle and wrestle often. He has a terrible chin, but unlike Ontiveros he actually knows it. In the off chance that the fight moving to a catch weight after being pushed back a week helped his chin he may be able to get to judges scorecard and get the win. Even in a decision he is going to score well because he will likely need 10+ minutes of control time to survive. | |||||
| Gerald Meerschaert | 7200 | Bruno Silva | Risky | +240 | +400 |
| Meerschaert does one thing well and that is his submission game which shows in him being a massive +240 underdog, but +400 to win inside the distance. He doesn't have much a path to victory outside of a hail mary submission, but considering he has 9 wins in the UFC and all wins are by submission you can't rule him out at any point during the fight. | |||||
| Lukasz Brzeski | 7300 | Martin Buday | Risky | +235 | +450 |
| Brzeski is coming off a PED suspension even before he came off the juice he wasn't a huge heavyweight so he will likely be giving up a ton of size here. Brzesk likes to keep fights in the clinch just like Buday and for a low level heavyweight fight a random finish by Lukasz isn't out of the picture. | |||||
| Iasmin Lucindo | 7500 | Yazmin Jauregui | Risky | +175 | +500 |
| Lucindo is only 20 years old, but Jauregui is only 23 so this isn't going to be a battle of experienced fighters here. The fight likely goes to decision and both fighters have shown they can go a hard three based off of their recent tape so I'm not thinking anyone gasses. Lucindo should try to use her wrestling here as she has the advantage if the fight hits the ground. | |||||
| Angela Hill | 7000 | Loopy Godinez | Risky | +270 | +900 |
| Hill is the more experienced fighter here and I will likely have a small bet on Hill by decision, but with that said she never scores well on DraftKings since her fights are normally low output striking battles with her opponent almost always opting to take her down. A win at $7000 can always end up on the optimal, but I don't see a path to a high score for Hill. | |||||
| Charlie Ontiveros | 6900 | Gabriel Benitez | Risky | +290 | +350 |
| Ontiveros is the striking version of Jason Witt. Ontiveros is going to go out swinging as shown in his last fight where he landed 7 significant strikes but knocked his opponent down twice. This fight likely won't see the judges scorecard, or even round 3 so make sure you have at least one of these two fighters. | |||||
| Nate Landwehr | 7600 | David Onama | Risky | +230 | +450 |
| Landwehr is going to look to pressure Onama, but isn't as durable or crisp with his striking . He is purely knockout or bust but at $7600 and nearly +300 he will fly under the radar in terms of ownership which makes him a nice leverage play. | |||||
Sample UFC DFS Lineup
UFC Vera vs Cruz Live Dogs
Cachoeira, Clark, Witt, Cruz
UFC Vera vs Cruz Stats and Picks
Marlon Vera | vs | Dominick Cruz |
$8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
| Record: 19-7-1 | Record | Record: 24-3-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 7 |
8 | Subs | 1 |
-230 | Vegas Odds | +195 |
Nate Landwehr | vs | David Onama |
$7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
| Record: 15-4-0 | Record | Record: 10-1-0 |
8 | Knockouts | 6 |
1 | Subs | 4 |
+230 | Vegas Odds | -275 |
Yazmin Jauregui | vs | Iasmin Lucindo |
$8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record: 8-0-0 | Record | Record: 13-4-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 8 |
0 | Subs | 2 |
-205 | Vegas Odds | +175 |
Devin Clark | vs | Azamat Murzakanov |
$7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
| Record: 13-6-0 | Record | Record: 11-0-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 8 |
1 | Subs | 1 |
+125 | Vegas Odds | -145 |
Priscila Cachoeira | vs | Ariane Lipski |
$7,500 | DFS Salary | $8,700 |
| Record: 11-4-0 | Record | Record: 14-7-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 6 |
0 | Subs | 3 |
+165 | Vegas Odds | -195 |
0 | ||
Bruno Silva | vs | Gerald Meerschaert |
$9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
| Record: 22-7-0 | Record | Record: 34-15-0 |
19 | Knockouts | 6 |
0 | Subs | 26 |
-285 | Vegas Odds | +240 |
Angela Hill | vs | Loopy Godinez |
$7,000 | DFS Salary | $9,200 |
| Record: 13-12-0 | Record | Record: 8-2-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 6 |
0 | Subs | 4 |
+270 | Vegas Odds | -325 |
Martin Buday | vs | Lukasz Brzeski |
$8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 10-1-0 | Record | Record: 8-1-1 (1 NC) |
7 | Knockouts | 5 |
1 | Subs | 2 |
-280 | Vegas Odds | +235 |
Cynthia Calvillo | vs | Nina Nunes |
$8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
| Record 9-4-1 | Record | Record 10-7-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 4 |
3 | Subs | 2 |
-180 | Vegas Odds | +155 |
Gabriel Benitez | vs | Charlie Ontiveros |
$9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 22-11-0 | Record | Record: 11-8-0 |
8 | Knockouts | 4 |
10 | Subs | 2 |
-350 | Vegas Odds | +290 |
Ode Osbourne | vs | Tyson Nam |
$8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 11-4-0 | Record | Record: 20-12-1 |
5 | Knockouts | 12 |
4 | Subs | 1 |
#N/A | Vegas Odds | +210 |
Jason Witt | vs | Josh Quinlan |
$7,100 | DFS Salary | $9,100 |
| Record: 19-8-0 | Record | Record: 5-0-0 |
3 | Knockouts | 3 |
8 | Subs | 2 |
+210 | Vegas Odds | -250 |
Youssef Zalal | vs | Da'Mon Blackshear |
$8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
| Record: 10-5-0 | Record | Record: 12-4-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 1 |
5 | Subs | 8 |
-125 | Vegas Odds | +105 |
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