MMA DFS Playbook UFC Fight Night: Stephen Thompson vs Kevin Holland
UFC Fight Night Thompson vs Holland kicks off with the Early Prelims at 7:00 PM EST on ESPN/ESPN+, followed by the Main Card at 10:00 PM on ESPN/ESPN+.
Check out all of the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in Discord or on Twitter at @consortiumDFS.
Now, let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
MMA DFS Playbook: UFC Fight Night
MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Fight Night Stephen Thompson vs Kevin Holland
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Stephen Thompson vs Kevin Holland | 7700/8500 | - | Stackability: Low | +145/ -170 | +330/+130 |
| The main event this week brings us two fan favorites in what is sure to be a fun fight. Thompson has some of the best striking in the UFC and while he is getting older, he is still as quick and technical as anyone on the roster. Holland also likes to stand and strike for the most part so I'm expecting at least some of this fight to stay standing. Holland could wrestle here as that is his best path to victory, so I'll be favoring him in this matchup but both sides are playable in both cash and GPPs this week. There is a good change this fight sees the later rounds so don't be all in on this fight since the winner could score 75-85 in a win which wouldn't make the optimal lineup. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Rafael Dos Anjos | 9600 | Bryan Barberena | Somewhat-Safe | -560 | +180 |
| The biggest favorite on the card, former 155 lb champion RDA takes a major step down in the co main event here when he takes on Bryan Barberena. RDA has the advantage everywhere but the biggest advantage he has is on the ground. Barberena has been taken down by anyone who tries, and RDA should be able to rack up a ton of them here. RDA has the safety that makes him well worth the $9600 price tag here. If he tries to get in the brawl on the feet, he should be able to still win the fight, but it will be much closer. | |||||
| Jonathan Pearce | 9500 | Darren Elkins | Somewhat-Safe | -450 | -115 |
| JSP pushes a wild pace and has successfully completed at least 4 takedowns in any of his fights that make it through two rounds so even in a decision he should score well here. Elkins is normally a slow starter so JSP should be able to jump out to the early lead here, but Elkins is known as someone who comes on strong the later the fight goes so hopefully JSP's cardio can hold up. JSP did have cardio issues in one fight but admitted in a post-fight interview that he had an injury to his leg, and he wasn't able to push as much towards the end of camp, so if he comes in healthy, I don't think it will be a problem. | |||||
| Matheus Nicolau | 9400 | Matt Schnell | Somewhat-Safe | -365 | +120 |
| Nicolau is a safe play to find the win, but he hasn't shown much finishing ability in the UFC. Although he hasn't found the finish Schnell is chinny so this could be his time to find his first KO. With the big favorites above him I think Nicolau makes for a sneaky play. | |||||
| Marc Diakiese | 9200 | Michael Johnson | Moderate | -315 | +225 |
| Diakiese has been really leaning on his wrestling these last few fights and he better do that here otherwise this is going to be a close and competitive fight. If Diakiese can land the 8-10 takedowns he has been getting in his last few fights he makes for a great play even if he doesn't find a finish. | |||||
| Natan Levy | 8900 | Genaro Valdez | Moderate | #N/A | +100 |
| Levy is another fighter who focuses on getting takedowns so he could see success on the ground in this fight. Valdez has been an all-action fighter in the UFC so far so if the same version comes out that came out against Frevola or on the Contender Series, someone is going to be scoring really well from this fight. Levy has shown he can't go three hard rounds so his gas tank could crumble if we make it into the third round, which is why I don't have him listed as a safer play. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Niko Price | 8400 | Phil Rowe | Moderate | -135 | +150 |
| Niko Price normally has fun fights, and Phil Rowe isn't afraid to stand and trade with anyone, so this is going to be all action. Hopefully Price mixes in his wrestling since we've seen that Rowe really struggles to get up from takedowns, but either way I think someone in this fight is going to get finished so you'll want to grab a piece. | |||||
| Jack Hermansson | 8700 | Roman Dolidze | Moderate | -195 | +250 |
| Hermansson is the more seasoned and technical fighter in this matchup and as long as he avoids Dolidze power he should be able to get a win. I think he is a safe play in this range, but my major concern is both of these fighters are durable and if Hermansson is on top of his game he'll be dancing on the outside and landing the occasional takedown. In this range there are a lot of question marks so his safety and durability make him a decent play, so if you have $8700 left, he is fine to use but I wouldn't make him your first piece in a lineup. | |||||
| Emily Ducote | 8300 | Angela Hill | Somewhat-Risky | -120 | +450 |
| Ducote better have her cardio on point because Angela Hill is going to be coming forward for almost the entire time, but that plays well into her ability to score here. Ducote should look to wrestle since anyone who has success against Hill normally finds it on the ground, while those who stand with her normally end up in close exchanges that lead to split decisions. | |||||
| Amanda Ribas | 8200 | Tracy Cortez | Somewhat-Risky | -110 | +350 |
| This fight should be closely contested but I think someone from it can find their way onto the optimal lineup. Ribas should have the advantage in the grappling department but I'm a little nervous that Tracy can control her for time against the cage or on the ground. Although the betting odds don't favor a finish, I think someone gets subbed in this matchup. | |||||
| Clay Guida | 7600 | Scott Holtzman | Somewhat-Risky | +145 | +600 |
| Guida has the pace and wrestling that normally gives Holtzman problems, but it's tough to compare the wrestling and pace of Clay Guida to the competition that Holtzman was fighting in Dariush and Fiziev. I think Guida can land a few takedowns and win a greasy decision, but he's going to have to wade into danger to get this fight where he wants it. | |||||
| Phil Rowe | 7800 | Niko Price | Somewhat-Risky | +115 | +200 |
| *** Rowe missed weight for this fight and will forfeit a portion of his purse to Price*** Rowe has massive reach and some good power, so a KO is the range of outcomes here, but I don't want to hitch all my lineups to someone that is going to be one of the chalkier underdogs. Rowe has been taken down and controlled in all of his fights so even with a second round knockout win last time out he still scored under 85 DK pts. Price has been durable enough where the only people who finish him are by either a ton of volume like Vincente Luque, or massive power like Geoff Neal (both top fighters in the division). | |||||
| Roman Dolidze | 7500 | Jack Hermansson | Risky | +165 | +275 |
| Dolidze is going to be pretty much a KO or bust fighter in this matchup since Hermansson should be able to matador Dolidze in this matchup. I'll have around 10% Dolidze in my lineups since he does have a change to get find a knockout, but I'm not confident he gets it done here. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Marcelo Rojo | 7400 | Francis Marshall | Somewhat-Risky | +185 | +275 |
| Rojo has had a good account of himself on the feet against Charles Jourdain and Kyler Phillips but was suspect on the ground so I'm a little scared Marshall will be able to get this fight to the ground and control him. The hardest part about this fight is figuring out how good Marshall is as his opponents are all question marks. Marshall's striking looked average to below average in the tape I've watched, and his wrestling was pretty good but he's looking good against guys with 7-6, 24-30 (this guy is 0-14 since the beginning of 2018), and 3-2 records so how much can we really take away from that. Rojo has good inside the distance for a dog play and at $7400 I'll be taking plenty of shots. | |||||
| Genaro Valdez | 7300 | Natan Levy | Somewhat-Risky | +170 | +250 |
| Valdez has been all action in his fights, and I don't think that changes here. Levy has gas tank issues so as long as Valdez can survive the early takedowns and striking, he should have changes to find the finish. | |||||
| Eryk Anders | 7100 | Kyle Daukaus | Risky | +190 | +500 |
| You never know what version of Eryk Anders is going to show up he fought Darren Stewart in back-to-back fights after an illegal knee in the first matchup stopped the fight and in those two fights Anders attempted 7 takedowns in round 1 the first fight, and 0 in round 1 in the second fight. He's risky because if the slow plodding striker shows up, I don't like his chances, but if he can get some takedowns, he could be a good play. | |||||
| Tai Tuivasa | 7200 | Sergei Pavlovich | Risky | +190 | +200 |
| Tuivasa is always going to be KO or bust but in this matchup, he actually has had his gas tank tested and shown he can stand toe to toe with the top of the division. I really thought this line would be closer to around +120 so I'll have a lot of Tai, but he is still risky since Sergei has a ton of power early on in the fight. | |||||
| Darren Elkins | #N/A | #N/A | Risky | +360 | +650 |
| Elkins is known for his durability and toughness, but he starts slow so it's going to be one way traffic until the fight gets later on. You won't need much to get overweight on him and at his price if he does find a way to win, he makes the optimal lineup. | |||||
| Istela Nunes | 6900 | Yazmin Jauregui | Risky | +255 | +600 |
| Nunes out struck both of her opponents in round 1 in her two UFC fights, so she does have some skill, but her wrestling is lackluster, and her pace fades the longer the fight goes. She could grab round 1 and win a close round 2, but she doesn't have much of a ceiling. I faded Maia last card in all of my lineups for the same reason and she ended up being the only dog to win, but with 15 fights I don't think we get another card where only one dog wins. | |||||
| Matt Schnell | 6800 | Matheus Nicolau | Risky | +300 | +700 |
| Schnell has skills but his chin normally lets him down, and even in his last win the fight could have been stopped before he found a way to salvage the win. Nicolau lacks the power to put away Schnell so at $6800 he is a viable punt play. | |||||
| Michael Johnson | 7000 | Marc Diakiese | Risky | +275 | +900 |
| If Diakiese is dumb enough to stand and bang with Johnson, Johnson is live to win this fight. Likely knockout or bust for finding the optimal lineup, but we've seen Diakiese get KO'd before. | |||||
Sample DFS Lineup
Live Dogs
Thompson, Tuivasa, Schnell, Hill, Guida
Stats and Picks
Stephen Thompson | vs | Kevin Holland |
$7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
| Record: 16-6-1 | Record | Record: 23-8-0 (1 NC) |
7 | Knockouts | 13 |
1 | Subs | 6 |
+145 | Vegas Odds | -170 |
Bryan Barberena | vs | Rafael Dos Anjos |
$6,600 | DFS Salary | $9,600 |
| Record: 18-8-0 | Record | Record: 31-14-0 |
11 | Knockouts | 5 |
2 | Subs | 10 |
+430 | Vegas Odds | -560 |
Matheus Nicolau | vs | Matt Schnell |
$9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
| Record: 18-3-1 | Record | Record: 16-6-0 (1 NC) |
4 | Knockouts | 2 |
5 | Subs | 9 |
-365 | Vegas Odds | +300 |
Tai Tuivasa | vs | Sergei Pavlovich |
$7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
| Record: 15-4-0 | Record | Record: 16-1-0 |
13 | Knockouts | 13 |
0 | Subs | 0 |
+190 | Vegas Odds | -225 |
Jack Hermansson | vs | Roman Dolidze |
$8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record: 23-7-0 | Record | Record: 11-1-0 |
11 | Knockouts | 6 |
6 | Subs | 3 |
-195 | Vegas Odds | +165 |
0 | ||
Eryk Anders | vs | Kyle Daukaus |
$7,100 | DFS Salary | $9,100 |
| Record: 14-7-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 11-3-0 (1 NC) |
8 | Knockouts | 0 |
1 | Subs | 9 |
+190 | Vegas Odds | -225 |
Niko Price | vs | Phil Rowe |
$8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
| Record: 15-5-0 (2 NC) | Record | Record: 9-3-0 |
10 | Knockouts | 5 |
3 | Subs | 10 |
-135 | Vegas Odds | +115 |
Angela Hill | vs | Emily Ducote |
$7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
| Record: 14-12-0 | Record | Record: 12-6-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 3 |
0 | Subs | 4 |
+100 | Vegas Odds | -120 |
Clay Guida | vs | Scott Holtzman |
$7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
| Record: 37-19-0 | Record | Record: 14-5-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 5 |
14 | Subs | 2 |
+145 | Vegas Odds | -170 |
Michael Johnson | vs | Marc Diakiese |
$7,000 | DFS Salary | $9,200 |
| Record: 21-18-0 | Record | Record: 16-5-0 |
9 | Knockouts | 6 |
2 | Subs | 1 |
+260 | Vegas Odds | -315 |
Darren Elkins | vs | Jonathan Pearce |
#N/A | DFS Salary | $9,500 |
| Record: 27-10-0 | Record | Record: 13-4-0 |
9 | Knockouts | 9 |
5 | Subs | 2 |
+360 | Vegas Odds | -450 |
Tracy Cortez | vs | Amanda Ribas |
$8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
| Record: 10-1-0 | Record | Record: 11-3-0 |
1 | Knockouts | 3 |
1 | Subs | 4 |
-110 | Vegas Odds | -110 |
Natan Levy | vs | Genaro Valdez |
$8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 7-1-0 | Record | Record: 10-1-0 |
0 | Knockouts | 7 |
3 | Subs | 3 |
-210 | Vegas Odds | +170 |
Yazmin Jauregui | vs | Istela Nunes |
$9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
Record: 9-0-0 | Record | Record: 6-3-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 2 |
0 | Subs | 0 |
-310 | Vegas Odds | +255 |
PrizePicks Props
- Fight Time Levy UNDER 10 Minutes
- Fight Time Price UNDER 10 Minutes
- Takedowns Diakiese OVER 3.0
- Fantasy Score Nicolau UNDER 90.5
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