MMA DFS Playbook: UFC Fight Night - Moreno vs Royval
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs Royval 2 takes place this Saturday live from the Mexico City Area in Mexico. The card kicks off with the Prelims at 7:00PM EST on ESPN+, followed by the Main Card at 10:00 PM on ESPN+. The Main Event features a rematch between Brandon Moreno and Brandon Royval in a spot for the number one challenger in the division. This fight will be all action as both of them rarely take a step back in the octagon. The Co-Main event is a rematch between Yair Rodriguez and Brian Ortega for what could be a chance in becoming Ilia Topuria’s first title challenger. This is a rematch that ended when Ortega’s shoulder dislocated early in the first round, but it was shaping up to be a fight the night before the injury.
Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs Royval
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Brandon Moreno vs Brandon Royval | 8800/7400 | - | Stackability: Low | -298/ 240 | 150./400. |
| What a main event for a UFC card in Mexico City. Moreno is the rightful favorite and as long as he doesn't dive into a guillotine choke, he should be able to win this fight. Moreno has legendary durability, and he should be able to get takedowns when he wants them as Royval has famously struggled to keep fights standing. Moreno is either going to dominate this fight with death by 1000 cuts and slowly chip away at Royval on way to a late finish or decision. Royval likes to go out on his shield so I expect him to push a pace that could result in him winning by early finish if he does win the fight. I'll be picking Moreno to win this, but I'll have Royval in some lineups as well since if he does win, he likely scores 90+ pts. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Edgar Chairez | 9300 | Daniel da Silva Lacerda | Somewhat-Safe | -470 | -280 |
| This is a rematch that didn't need to happen, but it makes for a great play on DraftKings. Chairez won the first matchup by guillotine choke, but after a replay they overturned it to a no contest saying Lacerda didn't tap. Lacerda is the perfect dance partner for DK, he likes to go out and throw caution to the wind which normally leads to his opponent scoring well in a win. Chairez has more power, and better cardio so as long as he can weather the first three minutes, he should be able to dominate the fight. If he can find a late Round 1 finish, he'll likely score 110+ points which would be more than enough at his price. | |||||
| Raul Rosas | 9000 | Ricky Turcios | Somewhat-Safe | -225 | 140. |
| I'm a big fan of Rosas and think at only 19 years old he should eventually be able to break into the top 5 of the division. He's still green but Turcios has bad takedown defense so Rosas should be able to get the fight down, and once he gets it down, I see it staying there until the round ends. Rosas did gas out in one of his recent fights for trying too hard to get the early finish, but if the biggest knock I can say on someone in a matchup is that they are going to try too hard to win the fight in the first round, which sounds like a great play. I'm also betting Rosas by Round 1 submission at +450. | |||||
| Yazmin Jauregui | 6700 | Sam Hughes | Somewhat-Safe | -575 | 165. |
| Jauregui is very highly priced for what she brings to the table in this matchup against Sam Hughes. Jauregui is miles ahead on the feet and while she does deserve to be favorite, she is likely giving up ground in the wrestling department. She doesn't throw a lot of volume for this weight class so in a decision she probably only scores 75-85pts which won't be enough to get it done at her salary. If you play her you are banking on an early KO win and at +165 that isn't something I like to bank on from the highest fighter on the slate. | |||||
| Felipe dos Santos | 9200 | Victor Altamirano | Moderate | -298 | 240. |
| Dos Santos came in on short notice against Manel Kape and was able to make it to a decision in his first career loss. Santos hasn't been much of a finisher lately, but early on in his career he was able to find a bunch of submission wins and I think that is likely the only way to get Altamirano out of there. Altamirano is just as durable as Santos so while this should be a fun fight, I think both of them are tough enough to avoid getting KO’d which makes this fight a lower priority for me. | |||||
| Muhammad Naimov | 9100 | Erik Silva | Moderate | -550 | -135 |
| Naimov has two wins in the UFC, but both are a little concerning. His debut win was up weight class, and he was losing the fight before finding a KO punch late in the second round. His last fight was against a fighter moving up a weight class and he was fading hard down the stretch. Silva is notorious for gassing out the later the fight goes, but I don't think Naimov is above gassing out either if Silva pushes a pace. This fight will get sloppier the later it goes and the card taking place at 7000ft of elevation is likely going to kill both of their gas tanks. I'm more confident the winner of this fight scores more than the Jauregui and Santos fights, but I'm not as confident in who wins this. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Yair Rodriguez | 8500 | Brian Ortega | Moderate | -148 | 165. |
| We have to include the co-main event at the top of the mid-range this week since it is going to be a 5-round fight. Yair is the better striker and was landing cleanly on Ortega in their first match up before it was stopped from Ortega's shoulder injury. Ortega needs to land takedowns or control Yair against the cage if he wants to have any chance in this fight and being away from fighting for 18 months recovering from injury I don't think we will see the best version of Ortega. I think Yair ends up winning a decision, but Ortega is getting older so I could see his chin giving out once the fight gets later. | |||||
| Raoni Barcelos | 8600 | Cristian Quinonez | Moderate | -175 | 130. |
| This is a step up for Quinonez and he's coming off of a loss so I'm confident Barcelos will win the more technical exchanges. Raoni is getting up there in age and his chin hasn't been as iron cast as it was in the past so I'm nervous he gets caught with a big shot and gets dropped, but outside of that I think he can control this fight standing or on the ground and coast to a win. | |||||
| Manuel Torres | 8300 | Chris Duncan | Somewhat-Risky | -192 | -150 |
| This fight is likely ending with one of these two winning by a knockout in the first ten minutes so while I'm not confident on who is getting KO'd, I'll have plenty of this fight in my lineups. Torres is the rightful favorite and I think he wins this fight about 65% of the time so I'm going to lean towards him, but Duncan is going to be lower owned and if he does win, he is almost a lock to make the optimal lineup. | |||||
| Ronaldo Rodriguez | 8000 | Denys Bondar | Somewhat-Risky | -118 | 165. |
| Rodriguez is the favorite and priced as the slight underdog on DraftKings so he will come with some ownership, but I haven't been impressed with Bondar's run in the UFC. Rodriguez is coming down to 125lbs, so I expect him to try to use his size to wrestle and control the fight. I'm backing Rodriguez but this fight is truly a coin flip with a lot of question marks on both sides. | |||||
| Mateus Mendonca | 8400 | Jesus Aguilar | Somewhat-Risky | -130 | 150. |
| Mendonca looked impressive in his UFC debut but looked terrible in his second fight within the organization. Aguilar has notoriously been a tough out, and Mendonca is going to need to use his wrestling and submission game if he wants to score well here. I think he is good enough to get takedowns, but I think he finishes this fight only about 30% of the time so for that reason I'm limiting him in my lineups to only about 20% of them. | |||||
| Brian Ortega | 7700 | Yair Rodriguez | Somewhat-Risky | 124 | 200. |
| Ortega was able to control Yair for the majority of the first fight, but even with all of that control Yair was able to land about 6 strikes per minute which is a big number when you spend half the time on your back or against the cage. To win this fight Ortega needs to either find a submission, or rack up 10+ minutes of control time and some takedowns in a decision so if he does win the fight, it is highly likely he hits the optimal lineup. | |||||
| Cristian Quinonez | 7600 | Raoni Barcelos | Risky | 145 | 250. |
| Quinonez is more than happy to trade punches and see what happens, and while I'm not confident in him winning a technical fight, if he can make this a brawl he could come out on top. He has power and if he lands clean, he should be able to drop Barcelos. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Claudio Puelles | 7500 | Fares Ziam | Somewhat-Risky | 164 | 275. |
| Puelles takes a big step back after getting crushed by Dan Hooker. Ziam has always been a low volume fighter that slows down the pace of the fights so I don't want to be too heavily invested in this fight, but Puelles has submission skills that can end a fight quickly. Puelles won't actually complete many takedowns, but he is more than confident just flopping to his back and attacking submissions. If Puelles can't get the submission, he won't win this fight. | |||||
| Francisco Prado | 7300 | Daniel Zellhuber | Somewhat-Risky | 220 | 400. |
| Prado has a bunch of power, and Zellhuber has been wobbled in a couple of fights. Prado is a similar play to Puelles, where if he can't land the big shot to end the fight then he probably won't win the fight. | |||||
| Ricky Turcios | 7200 | Raul Rosas | Risky | 185 | 400. |
| I have a ton of faith in Rosas, but he did gas out the last time he didn't get an early submission. Turcios, if anything, is someone who will continuously march forward to try to land strikes, and if he can overcome the early adversity than this fight should be much closer to a pick'em. He is one of the more likely low-priced dogs to win their fight but going into a fight knowing that he likely losses round 1 means he'll need to land a lot in the later rounds to make up for it. | |||||
| Erik Silva | 7100 | Muhammad Naimov | Risky | 410 | 700. |
| Silva is going to come out early and probably try to wrestle and he might be successful. He doesn't have the cardio to last longer than five minutes, but if Naimov tires with him there is a chance he may be able to rely on the wrestling in the later rounds. | |||||
| Daniel da Silva Lacerda | 6900 | Edgar Chairez | Risky | 360 | 450 |
| Lacerda has the early power and chaos to knock out anyone so he's live here. Chairez is going to be the more popular of the two, but Lacerda has as high of a ceiling as anyone else on this card. He also has the lowest floor on the card. | |||||
| Victor Altamirano | 7000 | Felipe dos Santos | Risky | 240 | 700. |
| He'll need to out volume Dos Santos and I think it is too much for him. Santos seems durable, and while I don't like to factor a fighter "looking good in a loss" too much into my decision making, it says a lot that Santos was able to go 15 minutes with someone who is going to be a title challenger if he wins his next fight. I'm limiting my Altamirano exposure to only around 12%. | |||||
| Sam Hughes | 6700 | Yazmin Jauregui | Risky | 425 | +1,100 |
| Hughes can wrestle a little bit, but it isn't very high level. If she does take down Jauregui, she has a legitimate chance to win, but if this fight stays standing for any prolonged period of time she is going to get pieced up on the feet. She needs to sell out for takedowns and even if she gets them, she'll need to do enough sway the judges that her damage landed on the ground was more meaningful than what was happening when the fight was standing, and I don't think that is something Hughes can do. | |||||
Sample Lineup
Live Dogs
Ortega, Royval, Puelles, Rodriguez
Picks and Stats
Brandon Moreno | vs | Brandon Royval |
$8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 21-7-2 | Record | Record: 15-7-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 4 |
11 | Subs | 9 |
-298 | Vegas Odds | -200 |
Yair Rodriguez | vs | Brian Ortega |
$8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
| Record: 16-4-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 15-3-0 (1 NC) |
8 | Knockouts | 3 |
5 | Subs | 7 |
-148 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
Daniel Zellhuber | vs | Francisco Prado |
$8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 14-1-0 | Record | Record: 12-1-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 6 |
3 | Subs | 6 |
-270 | Vegas Odds | 220 |
Raul Rosas | vs | Ricky Turcios |
$9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
| Record: 8-1-0 | Record | Record: 13-3-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 3 |
5 | Subs | 1 |
-225 | Vegas Odds | 185 |
Yazmin Jauregui | vs | Sam Hughes |
$9,500 | DFS Salary | $6,700 |
| Record: 10-1-0 | Record | Record: 8-5-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 2 |
0 | Subs | 3 |
-575 | Vegas Odds | 425 |
0 | ||
Manuel Torres | vs | Chris Duncan |
$8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
| Record: 14-2-0 | Record | Record: 11-1-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 7 |
6 | Subs | 1 |
-192 | Vegas Odds | 160 |
Cristian Quinonez | vs | Raoni Barcelos |
$7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
| Record: 18-4-0 | Record | Record: 17-5-0 |
10 | Knockouts | 3 |
3 | Subs | 7 |
145 | Vegas Odds | -175 |
Jesus Aguilar | vs | Mateus Mendonca |
$7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
| Record: 9-2-0 | Record | Record: 10-2-0 |
1 | Knockouts | 3 |
6 | Subs | 4 |
110 | Vegas Odds | -130 |
Edgar Chairez | vs | Daniel Lacerda |
$9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 10-5-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 11-5-0 (1 NC) |
4 | Knockouts | 5 |
6 | Subs | 6 |
-470 | Vegas Odds | 360 |
Claudio Puelles | vs | Fares Ziam |
$7,500 | DFS Salary | $8,700 |
| Record: 13-3-0 | Record | Record: 14-4-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 5 |
7 | Subs | 4 |
164 | Vegas Odds | -198 |
Ronaldo Rodriguez | vs | Denys Bondar |
$8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
| Record: 16-2-0 | Record | Record: 14-4-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 4 |
4 | Subs | 10 |
-118 | Vegas Odds | -102 |
Victor Altamirano | vs | Felipe dos Santos |
$7,000 | DFS Salary | $9,200 |
| Record: 12-3-0 | Record | Record: 7-1-0 (1 NC) |
2 | Knockouts | 2 |
4 | Subs | 3 |
240 | Vegas Odds | -298 |