MMA DFS Playbook: UFC Fight Night - Hermansson vs. Pyfer
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer takes place this Saturday live from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card kicks off with the Prelims at 4:00PM EST on ESPN+, followed by the Main Card at 7:00 PM on ESPN+.
The Main Event features powerful KO artist Joe Pyfer taking on perennial top 15 Middleweight Jack Hermansson in a fight that could catapult Pyfer into the top 10. The co-main event has Dan “50K” Ige looking to earn another bonus against a staple of the division (and one of the best nicknames in the sport) in Andre “Touchy” Fili.
Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @consortiumDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Jack Hermansson vs. Joe Pyfer | 7200/9000 | - | Stackability: Low | 210/ -200 | 350./-175 |
| A huge 14 fight card, with a great matchup at the top of the card here. Hermansson has been in there with some killers in Sean Strickland and Jarrod Cannonier, so this is a step down in competition, while Pyfer has looked incredible against the lower half of the division. Pyfer has all the power in the world (apparently, he beat Ngannou's punching power record) so if he lands clean in the first two rounds, he probably KO's Hermansson. Hermansson has some decent wrestling and has shown he can go five rounds in the past and accumulate 125+ strikes so if he can push the pace on Pyfer he may be able to wilt him. I'm going to have plenty of this fight in my lineup, but I'm not overly confident on who wins the fight, but I feel like I have a good read on how they win it when they do. I have a bet on Pyfer to win in Round1/2 at +140 because if it gets past that point in the fight, I don't think he wins this anyway. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Bolaji Oki | 9500 | Timothy Cuamba | Somewhat-Safe | -198 | #N/A |
| Oki is facing an opponent on short notice, who is moving up a weight class so he should be able to have the clear strength advantage. Oki threw 60 strikes in his Contender Series fight, and the fight didn't even last three minutes so he is at least going to come out strong here. It's a tough week in the high-priced range as we don't have any massive favorites, and a lot of them are new to the UFC or in the lower level of the UFC. I think Oki is going to be aggressive which gives him a ceiling that some of these other fighters don't have so for that reason I'm listing him at the top. | |||||
| Daniel Marcos | 9300 | Aori Aoriqileng | Somewhat-Safe | ||
| Aori is always coming forward, and that could create some chaos and Marcos has more than enough power to KO him. Aori normally doesn't wrestle. and that is Marcos' major weakness so he should be able to get comfortable here. He doesn't throw a lot of volume, and sometimes freezes up and waits to counter punch so if that happens, he could win this fight and only score 70pts, but I am confident that he should be able to get the KO and hopefully it comes in Round 1. | |||||
| Loma Lookboonmee | 9400 | Bruna Brasil | Somewhat-Safe | -285 | 225. |
| Lookboonmee has really introduced wrestling to her game plan as of late and she better be ready to use it here. She's the smaller fighter but her wrestling has proven to be pretty reliable, and I think she could land 3-4 takedowns and 60-70 strikes in this matchup and rack up a nice score. She isn't much of a finisher so while I'm confident in her skill set, she'll really need to pull of something spectacular for her to hit the optimal lineup with so many fights on this card. | |||||
| Carlos Prates | 9200 | Trevin Giles | Moderate | -258 | -150 |
| Giles has a way of slowing down fights, and if Prates falls into his trap this is going to be a boring fight. Prates needs to get in his wheelhouse, land some power strikes and end this early if he wants to have any success. He is similar to Marcos where he really needs the finish to hit the optimal lineup, and I'm confident he can get it done. | |||||
| Gregory Rodrigues | 9100 | Brad Tavares | Moderate | -250 | 130. |
| Rodrigues has been great for DraftKings in the past, either losing in a sensational way or winning and putting up huge scores. He has the grappling advantage, size advantage, and power advantage here, but Tavares has some good wrestling defense and has been in there with some former champions, so he isn't going to be walking into anything unexpected. Tavares is getting older, and he has shown if you land clean you can KO him, so let’s hope Rodrigues can find the mark. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Robert Bryczek | 8800 | Ihor Potieria | Moderate | -162 | -135 |
| Bryczek has more than enough tools to finish this fight and Potieria only has one win in the UFC, and it was against Shogun Rua in his retirement fight, so I don't think the UFC is looking to do him any favors. Whoever wins this fight likely scores well and while I'm leaning towards Bryczek pretty heavily, I do think he is going to be one of the highest owned fighters on the card so if you include him in lineups with Pyfer you should look to add a contrarian play to your lineup at some point. | |||||
| Rodolfo Vieira | 8200 | Armen Petrosyan | Moderate | -115 | 140. |
| This fight is going to be one-way traffic for someone, it just matters where it takes place. If this fight hits the ground, and Petrosyan has horrible takedown defense so it should get there at some point, it will be a major advantage for Vieira. Vieira knows what he needs to do to get wins, and he will shoot 20 takedown attempts, if need be, to get the fight where he needs it. If the fight stays standing for any prolonged period of time Petrosyan should win the fight. I think Vieira finds the submission at some point early in the fight, or Petrosyan KOs him in the later rounds. At their price they both fit in lineups pretty easily and they both possess upside to get to 100pts in a win, but I think Vieira is the rightful favorite. | |||||
| Bogdan Guskov | 7800 | Zac Pauga | Somewhat-Risky | 102 | 130. |
| They matched Guskov up on short notice against Volkan Oezdemir, so this is a major step back for him. I'm not confident he will win, but I know for a fact if he wins it's in Round 1. He's 50/50 to get the early KO, or completely gas out and get worked down the stretch but when we are trying to win a large tournament, he is the type of play we need. He's going to be highly owned at $7800 and only +102 to win the fight. | |||||
| Jeremiah Wells | 8500 | Max Griffin | Somewhat-Risky | -148 | 200. |
| Wells at his best should be able to get a ton of takedowns, and control Griffin on the ground, but he has shown he is a complete liability when he is standing strictly due to his chin. Skill for skill Wells has the advantage but if he gets caught with a power shot from Griffin, he could get KO'd. He is a high ceiling low floor play. | |||||
| Michael Johnson | 8300 | Darrius Flowers | Somewhat-Risky | -142 | 130. |
| Flowers is coming down from 170lbs so Johnson could be giving up a ton of size which would be a cause for concern, but Johnson has the much faster hands. Johnson at his best lands 20-30 powerful strikes over the course of a round, and he has enough power to KO just about anyone on the roster (Looking at you Dustin Poirier). As a whole I don't rate this fight as high as some of the other ones in this range, but Johnson would be my play in this fight as he can get an early KO if he lands clean. | |||||
| Dan Ige | 8600 | Andre Fili | Somewhat-Risky | -175 | 225. |
| I think Ige has enough skills to get the win, but Fili is a craft veteran so I'm not expecting either of these guys to get KO'd. Ige has quicker hands, and as long as he can avoid the occasional takedown attempt, he should be able to win a decision. Ige has been extremely durable, so I don't think he gets KO'd, so if I'm playing anyone in this fight it is Ige. | |||||
| Hyder Amil | 8700 | Fernie Garcia | Risky | -205 | 300. |
| With so many fighters on this card, Amil is probably going to get overlooked but I think it is for good reason. He is 33 years old making his debut, and he faces a durable opponent in Garcia. He's only +300 to win this fight by KO and I think that is pretty accurate so at $8700 he is pretty close to a fade. I watched some tape of Hyder in LFA, and he was put in some pretty tough spots against what should have been lower competition. I'm personally fading Hyder in all of my lineups. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Fernie Garcia | 7500 | Hyder Amil | Somewhat-Risky | 170 | 500. |
| Fernie is going to be one of my guys this week. I think he has the volume to break Amil, and while I'm not going all in on this play, I think he is going to be pretty low owned and really helps make your lineup different. Fernie has had to deal with guys who wrestle in every fight he's had in the UFC so far so he hasn't been able to really show off his skills, hopefully he gets to keep it standing and can get the late second round, or third round KO. | |||||
| Timothy Cuamba | 7500 | Bolaji Oki | Somewhat-Risky | 164 | #N/A |
| Cuamba may be the more talented fighter, but he's moving up a weight class on short notice and literally fought last week in a different promotion so it's unlikely he is going to be at his best. Cuamba is going to be interesting going forward when he's matched up properly, but I still think he has enough skills to make this fight close and possibly get the win. | |||||
| Ihor Potieria | 7400 | Robert Bryczek | Risky | 136 | 150. |
| Potieria likes to go out on his shield in a loss, so I'm expecting an absolute war. I think Bryczek gets the better of him, but Potieria is lined at +136, and +150 to win the fight so even the books see that if he wins this fight it is going to be by finish so if you are making multiple lineups, you should include him in some. If you are playing cash games, he is probably a fade as his floor is sub 10pts. | |||||
| Marcin Prachnio | 7300 | Devin Clark | Risky | 195 | 500. |
| Clark is likely going to just try to pin Prachnio up against the fence and slow this fight down and Prachnio has struggled with physical fighters in the past, so I expect the early parts of this fight to strongly favor Clark. Clark normally fades as the fight goes on and I can see Prachnio getting to him in R2/3 but even if he can break away from Clark in R1 he should be able to get the better of him at distance. I'm fading Clark across my lineups, but I'm still not going overboard on Prachnio, and he'll probably end up in about 15-20% of my lineups. | |||||
| Aori Aoriqileng | 6900 | Daniel Marcos | Risky | #N/A | #N/A |
| Aori always moves forward so if he clips Marcos or decides he wants to wrestle he could put up a big score. I don't want to have too much Aori because I don't think he is talented enough to beat Marcos, but he does push a pace that could lead to a huge score for either of these fighters. | |||||
| Bruna Brasil | 6800 | Loma Lookboonmee | Risky | 230 | 700. |
| Lookboonmee hasn't been fighting anyone the size of Brasil on her recent run so there is a chance that she can outmuscle her, but I'm not banking on it. I'll have her in some of my lineups but more so for her price, skill for skill I think she will be outmatched. | |||||
| Brad Tavares | 7100 | Gregory Rodrigues | Risky | 205 | 450. |
| Rodrigues has been hurt by lesser competition before so I wouldn't be surprised if Tavares was able to clip him here. He isn't a power puncher, he isn't a wrestler, but Rodrigues has a way of making his opponents do more than they are used to. Even if he scores 85 in a win, it might be enough at his price point. | |||||
| Andre Fili | 7600 | Dan Ige | Risky | 145 | 500. |
| I'm fading Fili even though he is the most talented fighter in the Pay-Downs. Ige has been in there with the best of the best and they haven't been able to get him out of the cage, so I don't think Fili will be able to either. There is maybe a 10% chance this comes back to kill my lineups, but I think even in a win Fili scores 65-70 pts and at $7600 that just doesn't get it done. | |||||
Sample Lineup
Live Dogs
Hermansson, Garcia, Potieria, Guskov, Petrosyan
Picks and Stats
Jack Hermansson | vs | Joe Pyfer |
$7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
| Record: 23-8-0 | Record | Record: 12-2-0 |
11 | Knockouts | 8 |
6 | Subs | 3 |
210 | Vegas Odds | -200 |
Dan Ige | vs | Andre Fili |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
| Record: 17-7-0 | Record | Record: 23-10-0 (1 NC) |
5 | Knockouts | 10 |
5 | Subs | 3 |
-175 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
Robert Bryczek | vs | Ihor Potieria |
$8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 17-5-0 | Record | Record: 19-5-0 |
11 | Knockouts | 9 |
1 | Subs | 6 |
-162 | Vegas Odds | 136 |
Brad Tavares | vs | Gregory Rodrigues |
$7,100 | DFS Salary | $9,100 |
| Record: 20-9-0 | Record | Record: 14-5-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 9 |
2 | Subs | 3 |
205 | Vegas Odds | -250 |
Michael Johnson | vs | Darrius Flowers |
$8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
| Record: 22-19-0 | Record | Record: 12-6-1 |
9 | Knockouts | 8 |
2 | Subs | 1 |
-142 | Vegas Odds | 120 |
0 | ||
Rodolfo Vieira | vs | Armen Petrosyan |
$8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
| Record: 9-2-0 | Record | Record: 9-2-0 |
1 | Knockouts | 6 |
8 | Subs | 0 |
-115 | Vegas Odds | -105 |
Trevin Giles | vs | Carlos Prates |
$7,000 | DFS Salary | $9,200 |
| Record: 16-5-0 | Record | Record: 17-6-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 10 |
5 | Subs | 3 |
210 | Vegas Odds | -258 |
Bolaji Oki | vs | Timothy Cuamba |
$9,500 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record: 8-1-0 | Record | Record: 8-1-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 5 |
0 | Subs | 1 |
-198 | Vegas Odds | 164 |
Loma Lookboonmee | vs | Bruna Brasil |
$9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
| Record: 8-3-0 | Record | Record: 9-3-1 |
1 | Knockouts | 3 |
1 | Subs | 2 |
-285 | Vegas Odds | 230 |
Devin Clark | vs | Marcin Prachnio |
$8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 14-8-0 | Record | Record: 16-7-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 11 |
1 | Subs | 1 |
-238 | Vegas Odds | 195 |
Max Griffin | vs | Jeremiah Wells |
$7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
| Record: 19-10-0 | Record | Record: 12-3-1 |
9 | Knockouts | 5 |
2 | Subs | 4 |
124 | Vegas Odds | -148 |
Zac Pauga | vs | Bogdan Guskov |
$8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
| Record: 7-2-0 | Record | Record: 14-3-0 |
1 | Knockouts | 12 |
0 | Subs | 2 |
-122 | Vegas Odds | 102 |