MMA DFS Playbook UFC Fight Night February 4: Top DraftKings Picks
UPDATE (2/4 @ 7:25PM ET) - Tonight's fight between Ji Yeon Kim and Mandy Bohm is now OFF.
UFC Fight Night: Spivac vs Lewis kicks off with the Prelims at 10:00 PM EST on ESPN+ followed by the Main Card on ESPN+ at 1:00 AM
Check out all of the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in Discord or on Twitter at @consortiumDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Fight Night: Spivac vs Lewis
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Derrick Lewis vs Serghei Spivac | 7400/8800 | - | Stackability: Low | +195/ -200 | +225/-165 |
| We wrote this up a few weeks back but the fight was cancelled so here we go again. A heavyweight main event featuring fan favorite Derrick "Black Beast" Lewis and #12 ranked Serghei Spivac should be fun for as long as it lasts. Spivac is the rightful favorite with a power wrestling game that should bring him success against Lewis. Lewis has always been a knockout or bust fighter with good durability but as of late that durability has started to fade. There are pictures floating around of Lewis where he looks trimmed down but I'm not sure that is going to help him in a fight where Spivac is going to want to get him to the ground. Lewis is tentative to strike, mostly looking for the one shot KO so even in a second or third round knockout win he won't score much. I'll be overweight on Spivac, with my prediction being that Spivac finds a finish in the late first or second round. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Tatsuro Taira | 9600 | Jesus Aguilar | Somewhat-Safe | -1,150 | -175 |
| Taira is the biggest favorite on the card and for good reason. Taira has an 8-inch reach advantage in this spot, is the better wrestler and the better submission grappler so he should have his advantage everywhere. He gets a little reckless on the feet, but he should be able to avoid trouble with his reach. On the ground Aguilar does have a decent guillotine, but outside of that this should be Taira's fight all day. | |||||
| Rinya Nakamura | 9300 | Toshiomi Kazama | Somewhat-Safe | -435 | -150 |
| With the $300 gap between Taira and Nakamura I think he ends up being the highest owned fighter on the slate. Nakamura has high level wrestling to the point he had a chance to represent Japan in the Olympics if it wasn't cancelled because of covid. He is still green but he should be able to use his wrestling here, and you can argue he has a higher ceiling than Taira at a cheaper price. | |||||
| Yusaku Kinoshita | 9100 | Adam Fugitt | Somewhat-Safe | -320 | +100 |
| Kinoshita is the more technical fighter but he is giving up some reach in this spot so it could take him a little while to figure out his range. Fugitt should look to get this fight to the ground if he's smart, if not I think Kinoshita eventually sparks him. I'm putting Kinoshita in a tier below Nakamura and Taira in terms of safety especially since he only has a 6-1 record and I don't see any of his skills being truly elite unlike Taira's submission game, or Nakamura's wrestling. | |||||
| Ji Yeon Kim | 9000 | Mandy Bohm | Moderate | -280 | +350 |
| Coming off of five straight losses but don't let that fool you, Kim is durable and stays incredibly active on the feet. She should be able to double up Bohm in strikes, and Bohm's lack of wrestling is will let Kim really push the pace. The last two times Kim fought in the UFC Apex smaller cage she landed 177 strikes against Cachoeira which would have scored 100+ if she had won the decision, and 122 strikes against Molly McCann while being taken down twice. Even though she is +350 inside the distance I think Kim wears down Bohm and eventually finds a late stoppage. | |||||
| Da Woon Jung | 8700 | Devin Clark | Moderate | -245 | -105 |
| Jung is the more powerful striker in this matchup, but Clark loves to slow down the fight by holding his opponents against the cage. Jung should be able to eventually land something in close and hurt Clark to win the fight. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Dooho Choi | 8600 | Kyle Nelson | Moderate | -200 | +500 |
| After a three-year layoff it’s tough to know which version of "The Korean Super boy" comes back to the UFC but this is a good matchup for him. Choi should be able to win the first round as he's always been a fast starter and I think he could get it done early. If it goes late he does fade and he doesn't wrestle so I don't think he scores particularly well in a win. | |||||
| Anshul Jubli | 8200 | Jeka Saragih | Moderate | -115 | +250 |
| Jubli is going to be lower owned than his opponent which was my initial draw to him just based off of the pricing, but when I watched the tape I think he has the wrestling advantage here. This is a low level fight for the Road to the UFC contest so neither of these fighters have much tape against quality opponents but I think Jubli's wrestling could translate well here against Jeka's striking which can be wild at times. | |||||
| HyunSung Park | 8400 | SeungGuk Choi | Somewhat-Risky | -190 | +275 |
| Park seems comfortable both striking and wrestling so he should be able to dictate where this fight takes place. Choi isn't a potent finisher, especially when he recently stepped up in competition for the "Road to the UFC" so Park shouldn't be in much danger here. I'll be playing Park and likely fading Choi all together. | |||||
| Jeka Saragih | 8000 | Anshul Jubli | Somewhat-Risky | -105 | +175 |
| Jeka has power and can finish Jubli but he gets reckless at time so he'll need to avoid giving up position. I expect Jeka to be the mid-range fighter that people flock to for salary relief, and with his finishing ability and upside he makes for a great play. | |||||
| Marcin Tybura | 8300 | Blagoy Ivanov | Somewhat-Risky | -135 | +300 |
| Tybura is the more likely of the two here to score decent in a win, but this fight may take place at a lumbering pace as Ivanov has been terrible for DraftKings scoring in his UFC career. Ivanov doesn't have a finish or hasn't been finished in his last 8 fights and neither of these men throw a ton of volume. I'll be taking a few shots on Tybura and likely fading Ivanov all together. | |||||
| Junyong Park | 8500 | Denis Tiuliulin | Somewhat-Risky | -225 | +275 |
| If Park were smart, he would attempt to wrestle in this spot since he has the clear advantage in that area vs Tiuliulin on the ground but if this stays standing Tiuliulin is live to KO Park. If the Park who came out against John Phillips and racked up 13 minutes of control time, or the one who took Marc Andre-Barriault down 5 times shows up Saturday (Sunday morning?) he should be able to get the win. | |||||
| Denis Tiuliulin | 7700 | Junyong Park | Risky | +190 | +330 |
| I have to talk about Tiuliulin in this spot too since he is one of my favorite dogs on the slate. Tiuliulin only wins this fight 1/3 of the time but when he wins it he is going to hit the optimal more times than not since he's going to need a finish. His striking is arguably better than Park's so he does have some advantage here and that's enough for me to take a shot. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Devin Clark | 7500 | Da Woon Jung | Somewhat-Risky | +205 | +400 |
| Clark is a grinder and while he won't score well in a win, he is cheap and does have some wrestling upside. If this fight see's the third round I'll want to be on Clark. | |||||
| Kyle Nelson | 7600 | Dooho Choi | Somewhat-Risky | +165 | +275 |
| Choi is coming off a three-year military service, and while I don't love Nelson, he is the clear odds value in the price range with there being a 40pt jump between him and Clark. Nelson should try to wrestle in this spot even if his wrestling isn't great because Choi should be able to piece him up as long as it stays standing. | |||||
| Mandy Bohm | 7200 | Ji Yeon Kim | Risky | +235 | 1000 |
| Bohm hasn't looked good at all in the UFC, but she did show promise in Bellator. Bohm on her best day should be able to land jabs and keep Kim at range, but last time out she should have been able to implement the same gameplan and didn't. She likely sees the judges’ scorecards and lands around 80 strikes so if you are playing cash games, she is the best punt option on the card if you aren't looking to sink your lineup. | |||||
| Yi Zha | 7300 | JeongYeong Lee | Risky | +205 | +300 |
| I don't think Zha has a great wrestling game but his submission game and his ability to transition to his opponents back was pretty good from what I've seen. He could just grind this out against the cage here, but he is live for a finish. | |||||
| Adam Fugitt | 7100 | Yusaku Kinoshita | Risky | +265 | +450 |
| Kinoshita is a talented finisher, and his only loss was by DQ for grabbing the fence, so Fugitt should look to wrestle in this spot to put Yusaku in a position he doesn't want to be. Fugitt may be able to find success with the wrestling but if it stays standing he is probably going to get knocked out. | |||||
| Jesus Aguilar | 6600 | Tatsuro Taira | Risky | +750 | +1200 |
| Aguilar has the shortest reach I think I've seen in a men's fight at only 62 inches, so he needs to close the distance, but he isn't going to want to grapple so he doesn't want to get too close. He has some submission wins by guillotine and that is his best chance here. | |||||
| Toshiomi Kazama | 6900 | Rinya Nakamura | Risky | +350 | +450 |
| Rinya is the better wrestler in this matchup, but Kazama is a submission specialist so he is comfortable on the ground. He is submission or bust in this matchup, but at $6900 he hits the optimal with a finish. | |||||
UFC Fight Night Example DFS Lineup
UFC Fight Night Live Dogs
Saragih, Tiuliulin, Zha, Clark, Nelson
Stats and Picks for UFC Fight Night
Derrick Lewis | vs | Serghei Spivac |
$7,400 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
Record: 26-10-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 15-3-0 |
21 | Knockouts | 7 |
1 | Subs | 6 |
+195 | Vegas Odds | -200 |
Da Woon Jung | vs | Devin Clark |
$8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
Record: 15-3-1 | Record | Record: 13-7-0 |
11 | Knockouts | 4 |
2 | Subs | 1 |
-245 | Vegas Odds | +205 |
Marcin Tybura | vs | Blagoy Ivanov |
$8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
Record: 23-7-0 | Record | Record: 19-4-0 (1 NC) |
9 | Knockouts | 6 |
6 | Subs | 6 |
-135 | Vegas Odds | +115 |
Dooho Choi | vs | Kyle Nelson |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
Record: 14-4-0 | Record | Record: 13-5-0 |
11 | Knockouts | 5 |
1 | Subs | 4 |
-200 | Vegas Odds | +165 |
Yusaku Kinoshita | vs | Adam Fugitt |
$9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
Record: 6-1-0 | Record | Record: 8-3-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 4 |
2 | Subs | 3 |
-320 | Vegas Odds | +265 |
0 | ||
Jeka Saragih | vs | Anshul Jubli |
$8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
Record: 13-2-0 | Record | Record: 6-0-0 |
8 | Knockouts | 1 |
4 | Subs | 1 |
-105 | Vegas Odds | -115 |
JeongYeong Lee | vs | Yi Zha |
$8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
Record: 9-1-0 | Record | Record: 21-3-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 4 |
3 | Subs | 1 |
-245 | Vegas Odds | +205 |
Toshiomi Kazama | vs | Rinya Nakamura |
$6,900 | DFS Salary | $9,300 |
Record: 10-2-0 | Record | Record: 6-0-0 |
3 | Knockouts | 4 |
5 | Subs | 1 |
+350 | Vegas Odds | -435 |
SeungGuk Choi | vs | HyunSung Park |
$7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
Record: 6-1-0 | Record | Record: 7-0-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 3 |
0 | Subs | 3 |
+160 | Vegas Odds | -190 |
Ji Yeon Kim | vs | Mandy Bohm |
$9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
Record: 9-6-2 | Record | Record: 7-2-0 (1 NC) |
2 | Knockouts | 2 |
3 | Subs | 2 |
-280 | Vegas Odds | +235 |
Junyong Park | vs | Denis Tiuliulin |
$8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
Record: 15-5-0 | Record | Record: 11-6-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 9 |
4 | Subs | 0 |
-225 | Vegas Odds | +190 |
Tatsuro Taira | vs | Jesus Aguilar |
$9,600 | DFS Salary | $6,600 |
Record: 12-0-0 | Record | Record: 8-1-0 |
3 | Knockouts | 0 |
6 | Subs | 6 |
-1150 | Vegas Odds | +750 |
Check out our list of the best, and most trusted sports betting and fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state.
Keep the UFC MMA DFS winning going! Check out our partners over on PrizePicks, Underdog Fantasy, Monkey Knife Fight & join our FREE Discord!