UPDATE (2/4 @ 7:25PM ET) - Tonight's fight between Ji Yeon Kim and Mandy Bohm is now OFF.

UFC Fight Night: Spivac vs Lewis kicks off with the Prelims at 10:00 PM EST on ESPN+ followed by the Main Card on ESPN+ at 1:00 AM 

Check out all of the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in Discord or on Twitter at @consortiumDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!

 

 

MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Fight Night: Spivac vs Lewis

Main Event

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Derrick Lewis vs Serghei Spivac

7400/8800

-

Stackability: Low

+195/ -200

+225/-165

We wrote this up a few weeks back but the fight was cancelled so here we go again. A heavyweight main event featuring fan favorite Derrick "Black Beast" Lewis and #12 ranked Serghei Spivac should be fun for as long as it lasts. Spivac is the rightful favorite with a power wrestling game that should bring him success against Lewis. Lewis has always been a knockout or bust fighter with good durability but as of late that durability has started to fade. There are pictures floating around of Lewis where he looks trimmed down but I'm not sure that is going to help him in a fight where Spivac is going to want to get him to the ground. Lewis is tentative to strike, mostly looking for the one shot KO so even in a second or third round knockout win he won't score much. I'll be overweight on Spivac, with my prediction being that Spivac finds a finish in the late first or second round. 
      

Expensive

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Tatsuro Taira

9600

Jesus Aguilar

Somewhat-Safe

-1,150

-175 

Taira is the biggest favorite on the card and for good reason. Taira has an 8-inch reach advantage in this spot, is the better wrestler and the better submission grappler so he should have his advantage everywhere. He gets a little reckless on the feet, but he should be able to avoid trouble with his reach. On the ground Aguilar does have a decent guillotine, but outside of that this should be Taira's fight all day.
Rinya Nakamura

9300

Toshiomi Kazama

Somewhat-Safe

-435 

-150 

With the $300 gap between Taira and Nakamura I think he ends up being the highest owned fighter on the slate. Nakamura has high level wrestling to the point he had a chance to represent Japan in the Olympics if it wasn't cancelled because of covid. He is still green but he should be able to use his wrestling here, and you can argue he has a higher ceiling than Taira at a cheaper price.
Yusaku Kinoshita

9100

Adam Fugitt

Somewhat-Safe

-320 

+100 

Kinoshita is the more technical fighter but he is giving up some reach in this spot so it could take him a little while to figure out his range. Fugitt should look to get this fight to the ground if he's smart, if not I think Kinoshita eventually sparks him. I'm putting Kinoshita in a tier below Nakamura and Taira in terms of safety especially since he only has a 6-1 record and I don't see any of his skills being truly elite unlike Taira's submission game, or Nakamura's wrestling.
Ji Yeon Kim

9000

Mandy Bohm

Moderate

-280 

+350 

Coming off of five straight losses but don't let that fool you, Kim is durable and stays incredibly active on the feet. She should be able to double up Bohm in strikes, and Bohm's lack of wrestling is will let Kim really push the pace. The last two times Kim fought in the UFC Apex smaller cage she landed 177 strikes against Cachoeira which would have scored 100+ if she had won the decision, and 122 strikes against Molly McCann while being taken down twice. Even though she is +350 inside the distance I think Kim wears down Bohm and eventually finds a late stoppage.
Da Woon Jung

8700

Devin Clark

Moderate

-245

-105 

Jung is the more powerful striker in this matchup, but Clark loves to slow down the fight by holding his opponents against the cage. Jung should be able to eventually land something in close and hurt Clark to win the fight.
      

Mid-Range

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Dooho Choi

8600

Kyle Nelson

Moderate

-200

+500 

After a three-year layoff it’s tough to know which version of "The Korean Super boy" comes back to the UFC but this is a good matchup for him. Choi should be able to win the first round as he's always been a fast starter and I think he could get it done early. If it goes late he does fade and he doesn't wrestle so I don't think he scores particularly well in a win.
Anshul Jubli

8200

Jeka Saragih

Moderate

-115 

+250 

Jubli is going to be lower owned than his opponent which was my initial draw to him just based off of the pricing, but when I watched the tape I think he has the wrestling advantage here. This is a low level fight for the Road to the UFC contest so neither of these fighters have much tape against quality opponents but I think Jubli's wrestling could translate well here against Jeka's striking which can be wild at times.
HyunSung Park

8400

SeungGuk Choi

Somewhat-Risky

-190

+275 

Park seems comfortable both striking and wrestling so he should be able to dictate where this fight takes place. Choi isn't a potent finisher, especially when he recently stepped up in competition for the "Road to the UFC" so Park shouldn't be in much danger here. I'll be playing Park and likely fading Choi all together.
Jeka Saragih

8000

Anshul Jubli

Somewhat-Risky

-105 

+175

Jeka has power and can finish Jubli but he gets reckless at time so he'll need to avoid giving up position. I expect Jeka to be the mid-range fighter that people flock to for salary relief, and with his finishing ability and upside he makes for a great play. 
Marcin Tybura

8300

Blagoy Ivanov

Somewhat-Risky

-135 

+300 

Tybura is the more likely of the two here to score decent in a win, but this fight may take place at a lumbering pace as Ivanov has been terrible for DraftKings scoring in his UFC career. Ivanov doesn't have a finish or hasn't been finished in his last 8 fights and neither of these men throw a ton of volume. I'll be taking a few shots on Tybura and likely fading Ivanov all together. 
Junyong Park

8500

Denis Tiuliulin

Somewhat-Risky

-225

+275 

If Park were smart, he would attempt to wrestle in this spot since he has the clear advantage in that area vs Tiuliulin on the ground but if this stays standing Tiuliulin is live to KO Park. If the Park who came out against John Phillips and racked up 13 minutes of control time, or the one who took Marc Andre-Barriault down 5 times shows up Saturday (Sunday morning?) he should be able to get the win. 
Denis Tiuliulin

7700

Junyong Park

Risky

+190 

+330 

I have to talk about Tiuliulin in this spot too since he is one of my favorite dogs on the slate. Tiuliulin only wins this fight 1/3 of the time but when he wins it he is going to hit the optimal more times than not since he's going to need a finish. His striking is arguably better than Park's so he does have some advantage here and that's enough for me to take a shot.
      

Pay-Downs 

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Devin Clark

7500

Da Woon Jung

Somewhat-Risky

+205 

+400 

Clark is a grinder and while he won't score well in a win, he is cheap and does have some wrestling upside. If this fight see's the third round I'll want to be on Clark.
Kyle Nelson

7600

Dooho Choi

Somewhat-Risky

+165 

+275 

Choi is coming off a three-year military service, and while I don't love Nelson, he is the clear odds value in the price range with there being a 40pt jump between him and Clark. Nelson should try to wrestle in this spot even if his wrestling isn't great because Choi should be able to piece him up as long as it stays standing.
Mandy Bohm

7200

Ji Yeon Kim

Risky

+235 

1000

Bohm hasn't looked good at all in the UFC, but she did show promise in Bellator. Bohm on her best day should be able to land jabs and keep Kim at range, but last time out she should have been able to implement the same gameplan and didn't. She likely sees the judges’ scorecards and lands around 80 strikes so if you are playing cash games, she is the best punt option on the card if you aren't looking to sink your lineup.
Yi Zha

7300

JeongYeong Lee

Risky

+205 

+300

I don't think Zha has a great wrestling game but his submission game and his ability to transition to his opponents back was pretty good from what I've seen. He could just grind this out against the cage here, but he is live for a finish.
Adam Fugitt

7100

Yusaku Kinoshita

Risky

+265 

+450 

Kinoshita is a talented finisher, and his only loss was by DQ for grabbing the fence, so Fugitt should look to wrestle in this spot to put Yusaku in a position he doesn't want to be. Fugitt may be able to find success with the wrestling but if it stays standing he is probably going to get knocked out.
Jesus Aguilar

6600

Tatsuro Taira

Risky

+750

+1200 

Aguilar has the shortest reach I think I've seen in a men's fight at only 62 inches, so he needs to close the distance, but he isn't going to want to grapple so he doesn't want to get too close. He has some submission wins by guillotine and that is his best chance here.
Toshiomi Kazama

6900

Rinya Nakamura

Risky

+350 

+450 

Rinya is the better wrestler in this matchup, but Kazama is a submission specialist so he is comfortable on the ground. He is submission or bust in this matchup, but at $6900 he hits the optimal with a finish.



 

UFC Fight Night Example DFS Lineup

Table
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UFC Fight Night Live Dogs

Saragih, Tiuliulin, Zha, Clark, Nelson

 

Stats and Picks for UFC Fight Night

   

Derrick Lewis

vs

Serghei Spivac

$7,400

DFS Salary

$8,800

Record: 26-10-0 (1 NC) 

Record

Record: 15-3-0 

21

Knockouts

7

1

Subs

6

+195 

Vegas Odds

-200

   

Da Woon Jung

vs

Devin Clark

$8,700

DFS Salary

$7,500

Record: 15-3-1 

Record

Record: 13-7-0 

11

Knockouts

4

2

Subs

1

-245

Vegas Odds

+205

   

Marcin Tybura

vs

Blagoy Ivanov

$8,300

DFS Salary

$7,900

Record: 23-7-0 

Record

Record: 19-4-0 (1 NC) 

9

Knockouts

6

6

Subs

6

-135 

Vegas Odds

+115 

   

Dooho Choi

vs

Kyle Nelson

$8,600

DFS Salary

$7,600

Record: 14-4-0 

Record

Record: 13-5-0 

11

Knockouts

5

1

Subs

4

-200

Vegas Odds

+165 

   

Yusaku Kinoshita

vs

Adam Fugitt

$9,100

DFS Salary

$7,100

Record: 6-1-0 

Record

Record: 8-3-0 

4

Knockouts

4

2

Subs

3

-320 

Vegas Odds

+265 

 

0

 

Jeka Saragih

vs

Anshul Jubli

$8,000

DFS Salary

$8,200

Record: 13-2-0 

Record

Record: 6-0-0 

8

Knockouts

1

4

Subs

1

-105 

Vegas Odds

-115 

   

JeongYeong Lee

vs

Yi Zha

$8,900

DFS Salary

$7,300

Record: 9-1-0 

Record

Record: 21-3-0 

4

Knockouts

4

3

Subs

1

-245

Vegas Odds

+205 

   

Toshiomi Kazama

vs

Rinya Nakamura

$6,900

DFS Salary

$9,300

Record: 10-2-0 

Record

Record: 6-0-0 

3

Knockouts

4

5

Subs

1

+350 

Vegas Odds

-435 

   

SeungGuk Choi

vs

HyunSung Park

$7,800

DFS Salary

$8,400

Record: 6-1-0 

Record

Record: 7-0-0 

2

Knockouts

3

0

Subs

3

+160

Vegas Odds

-190

   

Ji Yeon Kim

vs

Mandy Bohm

$9,000

DFS Salary

$7,200

Record: 9-6-2 

Record

Record: 7-2-0 (1 NC) 

2

Knockouts

2

3

Subs

2

-280 

Vegas Odds

+235 

   

Junyong Park

vs

Denis Tiuliulin

$8,500

DFS Salary

$7,700

Record: 15-5-0 

Record

Record: 11-6-0 

5

Knockouts

9

4

Subs

0

-225

Vegas Odds

+190 

   

Tatsuro Taira

vs

Jesus Aguilar

$9,600

DFS Salary

$6,600

Record: 12-0-0 

Record

Record: 8-1-0 

3

Knockouts

0

6

Subs

6

-1150 

Vegas Odds

+750

   

 

 

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