MMA DFS Playbook UFC Fight Night: Derrick Lewis vs Serghei Spivak
UFC Fight Night Lewis vs. Spivac kicks off with the Early Prelims at 1:00 PM EST on ESPN+, followed by the Main Card at 4:00 PM on ESPN+.
Check out all of the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on Twitter at @consortiumDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
DraftKings Rule Update
Before getting into the article, I wanted to address the new rule change for the MMA Contests on DraftKings. Starting with this card you will be able to late swap fighters out of lineups up until a designated lock time for each fight which as of now looks to be going at 20-minute intervals. You will not be able to see other’s lineups or ownership percentages of fighters until their fight locks. Like every change, there are pros and cons to it, but there are also ways we can take advantage of the change.
Everyone hates when you must take a zero in a lineup because a fight gets canceled after lock so the biggest win for this change is that you can now pivot off of these fighters to save your lineup. One of the great things about MMA was unlike NBA where you need to monitor news all night, you could set your lineup and not have to constantly be checking for updates.
With this comes a lot more strategy for those working hard on how you can change lineups throughout the night to maximize your chance of cashing. If in your first few fighters, you get two losses it now makes sense to try to change the remaining fighters to those that you think won’t be as highly owned so that if they do win you will be able to make up the ground from the early losses to get cash. Also, there are scenarios where switching to a different fighter could pay off even if you have to leave a ton of salary on the table. Say you are in 5th place in a contest where only the top 4 cash before the main event this week and everyone in front of you has enough salary to play Spivac, and your lineup currently has Spivac in it. You can now switch your lineup for that contest to Lewis and at least give yourself a chance at cashing.
With the new rules come a lot more moving parts so make sure to check out the discord and fire any questions at me and I’ll be more than happy to answer.
MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Fight Night Derrick Lewis vs Serghei Spivac
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Derrick Lewis vs Serghei Spivac | 7000/9200 | - | Stackability: Low | -200/+170 | -750 |
| A heavyweight main event featuring fan favorite Derrick "Black Beast" Lewis and #12 ranked Serghei Spivac should be fun for as long as it lasts. Spivac is the rightful favorite with a power wrestling game that should bring him success against Lewis. Lewis has always been a knockout or bust fighter with good durability but as of late, that durability has started to fade. Lewis is tentative to strike, mostly looking for the one-shot KO so even in a second or third-round knockout win he won't score much. I'll be overweight on Spivac, with my prediction being that Spivac finds a finish in the late first or second round. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Jack Della Maddalena | 9600 | Danny Roberts | Somewhat-Safe | -610 | -250 |
| Being the largest favorite on the card by a wide margin makes Jack one of the safest plays, and Danny Roberts having been finished in 4 of his 5 losses in the UFC makes him one of the highest-ceiling plays as well. Jack isn't afraid to take one to land two which is always scary when rostering the highest-priced fighter on the slate, but it also means he should score well once he finds the knockout. Prediction - Jack by KO | |||||
| Waldo Cortes-Acosta | 9100 | Chase Sherman | Somewhat-Safe | -225 | -110 |
| Waldo is one of the bigger favorites on this card and this fight should be a banger for as long as it lasts. Both of these fighters have boxing backgrounds so don't expect much wrestling, but both of them want to land 7-8 strikes per minute, and neither one has shown a great gas tank. The red flag for Waldo in this fight is that he fought less than a month ago and he ate some pretty bad leg kicks so if he isn't 100% Sherman may just go right back to the leg kicks which could spell the end for Waldo's undefeated record. | |||||
| Maryna Moroz | 9000 | Jennifer Maia | Somewhat-Safe | -190 | +350 |
| Moroz is a safe cash game play since this fight should go to a decision, but she also puts out a lot of strikes when she has the advantage in that department. Maia has shown she can wrestle the top end of the division for at least the first round of a fight, but she could be arguably 0-4 in her last four if she didn't bust open Jessica Eye's head with a headbutt. Maia wasn't finished by Chookagian, Fiorot, or Valentina Shevchenko so don't expect Moroz to get the finish here. I'll be avoiding Moroz in GPPs and considering (not a lock) for cash games. | |||||
| Natalia Silva | 8900 | Tereza Bleda | Moderate | -165 | +240 |
| The first fight of the night brings us some pretty green fighters in Silva and Bleda. I don't love Silva in this spot, but she has a ton of submissions on her resume, so she does have finishing ability. While she was able to get takedowns in her UFC debut, she wasn't able to hold position for long which is scary against someone like Bleda who is an extremely physical fighter. I expect Bleda to be able to control position for the most part but if these two are in close Silva ending up on top, or finding a submission is more likely. | |||||
| Ricky Turcios | 8600 | Kevin Natividad | Moderate | -155 | +330 |
| Which version of Turcios comes out makes or breaks his night? The one that was on TUF was under nonstop pressure moving forward, while in his UFC debut he looked lost and didn't know how to close space. With this fight being in the Apex I hope he is able to bring the pressure to Natividad and find an early stoppage or just land a ton of volume. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Brady Hiestand | 8500 | Fernie Garcia | Moderate | -175 | +225 |
| Brady is a pressure wrestler who is going to look to land a ton of takedowns and volume to win this fight. Still only 23 years old he should be making improvements from what we saw on TUF a few years ago. Garcia is durable so a finish may be too tall of a task here but if Brady has improved at all multiple takedowns and a high score are coming. | |||||
| Miles Johns | 8400 | Vince Morales | Moderate | -170 | +180 |
| Johns has a ton of power but doesn't have much in the gas tank so don't expect him to throw too much volume unless he is looking for a finish. Morales has had an up-and-down career in the UFC and has really struggled with leg kicks at time. Neither of these fighters look to wrestle much but if anyone does Johns is going to be the one initiating it. I'll be avoiding these fighters in cash but think Johns can be a sneaky upside play if he finds the early knockout. | |||||
| Muslim Salikhov | 8300 | Andre Fialho | Somewhat-Risky | -115 | +250 |
| Salikhov has good enough striking to match it standing with Fialho but his ability to mix in the wrestling is what will probably win him the fight. Salikhov has to avoid the power coming back at him, but he should be more technical and able to withstand the exchanges. If this fight took place six months ago, I'd be telling you how both of these fighters have cast iron chins and a knockout isn't likely but both of them are coming off of KO losses this summer, so anything is possible. Salikhov was fighting well against Li Jiangling before he got KO'd in the second, while Fialho was completely outmatched against Jake Matthews. I'll be leaning Salikhov for GPPs but neither of these fighters are safe for cash games. | |||||
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 8000 | Maria Oliveira | Somewhat-Risky | -110 | +240 |
| Demopoulos is going to be giving up 10 inches in the reach department so if this fight stays standing, she is going to have a hard time getting to Oliveira, but her submission game is levels above what Oliveira has to offer. Why I'm favoring Demopoulos here is because someone with a 59-inch reach is always at a reach disadvantage so while 10 inches is a ton it isn't like she hasn't been in this spot before. In her matchup against JJ Aldrich, she was giving up 7 inches of reach and while she wasn't able to find a single takedown in that fight Demopoulos still landed 70ss in the loss, so she is willing to go through punches to get the fight to the ground. | |||||
| Andre Fialho | 7900 | Muslim Salikhov | Somewhat-Risky | -105 | +165 |
| Powerful puncher and admitted to looking past Jake Matthews in his last fight so maybe he comes into this fight looking to take things a little more seriously. At -105 for only $7900 he might get a little more ownership than he deserves, but if he does get the finish, you probably will need him in your lineup. | |||||
| Vince Morales | 7800 | Miles Johns | Somewhat-Risky | +145 | +500 |
| Morales isn't likely to find a finish here, but he could outpace Johns and possibly find the late finish if he tires Johns out. I think there are higher upside options on this slate that I would rather squeeze into my lineups. | |||||
| Maria Oliveira | 8200 | Vanessa Demopoulos | Risky | -110 | +600 |
| A huge 10-inch reach advantage so she should be a bigger favorite in this spot, but Demopoulos has been tough to finish so even in a striking battle where she ends up winning, I don't think she scores more than 85 points which likely doesn't get her to the optimal lineup. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Ion Cutelaba | 7400 | Kennedy Nzechukwu | Somewhat-Risky | +145 | +225 |
| I am a complete sucker for Cutelaba. He always pushes a pace, tries to wrestle before inevitably gassing and getting finished. Kennedy doesn't have a submission game, and this is a huge step down in competition for him compared to his recent run. I'm going to be overweight to the field here as I think most have soured on his reckless style. | |||||
| Chase Sherman | 7100 | Waldo Cortes-Acosta | Somewhat-Risky | +190 | +350 |
| I don't know why Sherman is such a big dog in this spot. Chase isn't the most technical boxer in the world, but he does utilize his kicks more than Waldo will, so I think he has the advantage there. I think one of these big men are going down so at $7100 I'll be sure to have plenty of Sherman. | |||||
| Tereza Bleda | 7300 | Natalia Silva | Risky | +140 | +600 |
| Bleda is going to be pretty chalky at $7300 and only +140 so don't expect to lap the field with this play. Bleda is going to pressure and in the smaller cage, I'm always going to favor fighters who move forward. Bleda can be played in all formats but if you are going to play her in tournaments make sure you have another low-owned fighter in there. | |||||
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 7500 | Charles Johnson | Risky | +140 | +650 |
| I'm not sure how ZZ is the underdog in this fight. Charles Johnson looked terrible in his matchup against Mokaev and although I think ZZ probably suffers the same fate in that matchup, I don't know what Charles does significantly better than Zhalgas. Zhalgas was able to mix in his striking and wrestling against Jeff Molina last fight out but lost a razor-thin split decision and I think he is going to implement a similar game plan here. I don't think either of these fighters is going to be eager to really push a pace but if I had to choose between the two, I'm going to go with the dog in Zhalgas to mix in his wrestling and striking and get it done. | |||||
| Jennifer Maia | 7200 | Maryna Moroz | Risky | +160 | +750 |
| Maia normally is an instant fade on DraftKings since she never gets a finish and isn't someone who is easy to finish, but in this case, if she wins a decision at only $7200, she could hit the optimal lineup. She is probably a step or two behind Moroz on the feet but if she ends up getting a few takedowns she could win this fight. | |||||
| Danny Roberts | 6600 | Jack Della Maddalena | Risky | +460 | +900 |
| Danny Roberts is about as untrustworthy as they come but in the 10% chance, he finishes Jack he is going to hit the optimal lineup. I won't be playing much but out of my 150 lineups, I'm going to include him in a handful. | |||||
| Kevin Natividad | 7600 | Ricky Turcios | Risky | +135 | +350 |
| Natividad can win this fight if the hesitant version of Turcios shows up, but if that is the case, I don't think a win is going to score enough to make it worth your while. I'll be playing higher-upside fighters in this range | |||||
| Fernie Garcia | 7700 | Brady Hiestand | Risky | +150 | +550 |
| This could come back to bite me here since Hiestand is still so young so not showing up under the big lights is something that could happen, but I'll be fading Garcia in my lineups since I think his odds compared to his price don't make sense and Brady has a hell of a chin on him. Even if Brady does gas and Fernie finds the late finish he likely is getting controlled for too long of the early rounds to make it worth the lineup spot. | |||||
Sample DFS Lineup
Live Dogs
Sherman, Maia, Cutelaba, ZZ, Bleda
Stats and Picks
Derrick Lewis | vs | Serghei Spivac |
$7,000 | DFS Salary | $9,200 |
| Record: 26-10-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 15-3-0 |
21 | Knockouts | 7 |
1 | Subs | 6 |
+170 | Vegas Odds | -200 |
Kennedy Nzechukwu | vs | Ion Cutelaba |
$8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 10-3-0 | Record | Record: 16-8-1 (1 NC) |
7 | Knockouts | 12 |
0 | Subs | 2 |
-175 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
Chase Sherman | vs | Waldo Cortes-Acosta |
$7,100 | DFS Salary | $9,100 |
| Record: 16-10-0 | Record | Record: 8-0-0 |
15 | Knockouts | 4 |
0 | Subs | 1 |
+190 | Vegas Odds | -225 |
Andre Fialho | vs | Muslim Salikhov |
$7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
| Record: 16-5-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 18-3-0 |
13 | Knockouts | 12 |
1 | Subs | 2 |
-105 | Vegas Odds | -115 |
Jack Della Maddalena | vs | Danny Roberts |
$9,600 | DFS Salary | $6,600 |
| Record: 12-2-0 | Record | Record: 18-6-0 |
10 | Knockouts | 8 |
1 | Subs | 5 |
-610 | Vegas Odds | +460 |
0 | ||
Charles Johnson | vs | Zhalgas Zhumagulov |
$8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record: 11-3-0 | Record | Record: 14-7-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 7 |
3 | Subs | 1 |
-165 | Vegas Odds | +140 |
Jennifer Maia | vs | Maryna Moroz |
$7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
| Record: 19-9-1 | Record | Record: 11-3-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 12 |
5 | Subs | 2 |
+160 | Vegas Odds | -190 |
Vince Morales | vs | Miles Johns |
$7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
| Record: 11-6-0 | Record | Record: 12-2-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 4 |
2 | Subs | 2 |
+145 | Vegas Odds | -170 |
Ricky Turcios | vs | Kevin Natividad |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
| Record: 12-3-0 | Record | Record: 9-3-0 |
3 | Knockouts | 5 |
1 | Subs | 1 |
-155 | Vegas Odds | +135 |
Vanessa Demopoulos | vs | Maria Oliveira |
$8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
| Record: 8-4-0 | Record | Record: 13-5-0 |
1 | Knockouts | 7 |
4 | Subs | 1 |
-110 | Vegas Odds | -110 |
Brady Hiestand | vs | Fernie Garcia |
$8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
| Record: 6-2-0 | Record | Record: 10-2-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 1 |
2 | Subs | 3 |
-175 | Vegas Odds | +150 |
Natalia Silva | vs | Tereza Bleda |
$8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 13-5-1 | Record | Record: 6-0-0 |
3 | Knockouts | 2 |
7 | Subs | 2 |
-165 | Vegas Odds | +140 |
PrizePicks Props
Hiestand O 2.5 Takedowns
Waldo Cortes-Acosta U 89.5 Fantasy Points
Kennedy Nzechukwu U 7.5 Minutes Fight Time
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