MMA DFS Playbook UFC Fight Night Dern vs Yan: Top DraftKings DFS Picks
UFC Fight Night Dern vs Yan kicks off with the early prelims at 4PMEST on ESPN+, followed by the Main Card on ESPN+ at 7:00 PM.
Check out all of the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on Twitter at @consortiumDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Fight Night Dern vs Yan
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Mackenzie Dern vs Yan Xiaonan | 9100/7100 | - | Stackability: Low | -230/+195 | -220 |
| The main event this week brings us to fan favorite Mackenzie Dern against another highly skilled fighter in Yan Xiaonan. This fight is a classic striker vs grappler fight so look for it to play out with either Dern getting a submission or Yan winning while the fight stays standing. Yan has pretty good wrestling of her own, so I expect her to keep the fight standing for most for the majority of it if it goes 25 minutes. With that said Dern may only need one takedown to end the fight and don't put it past her to pull guard just to get the fight to the ground by any means necessary. Both fighters can score well in a win since Yan's path to victory is likely a 25-minute striking battle at a very cheap salary so both are in play for all formats. Official Pick Dern by Submission | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Sodiq Yusuff | 9500 | Don Shainis | Somewhat-Safe | -1,100 | -165 |
| With most favorites, this week being around -300 or less Yusuff is a very safe play against short-notice opponent Don Shainis. As the highest-price fighter, he is going to need an early finish or multiple knockdowns to end up on the optimal lineup, and I can see both of them happening here. Shainis has only been finished once in his career. It was by doctor's stoppage due to an eye injury, so his durability may keep him in the fight long enough to hurt Yusuff's score,, which is the only thing keeping me from locking in Yusuff everywhere. I'm locking Yusuff in my cash game lineups and will have him in some GPPs. | |||||
| Randy Costa | 9200 | Guido Cannetti | Somewhat-Safe | -285 | -180 |
| Costa and Cannetti both start incredibly fast so look for some early fireworks here. Costa should have the early advantage with his speed and quick jab down the middle, but he needs to get this fight over quickly. In nine pro fights, Costa has never won a fight that lasted longer than 3 minutes and he has been finished in all his losses. Since we are playing for upside to take down stand still a tournament he makes a great play as his finishing ability and high volume give him one of the highest ceilings on the slate make sure to get him in some lineups. | |||||
| Randy Brown | 9300 | Francisco Trinaldo | Risky | -325 | +140 |
| I like Randy Brown a lot as a fighter and normally target him in most of his spots but Trinaldo has a weird ability to slow down fights to almost a standstill. Brown is bringing in an 8-inch reach advantage so he should be able to pick him apart from the outside, but that style of fighting isn't what we want from a $9300 fighter. I like Brown to win and expect him to be lower owned than others in this range so he could make a good contrarian play, but with Trinaldo's's durability, I am going to look elsewhere. | |||||
| Tabatha Ricci | 8900 | Jessica Penne | Moderate | -215 | +330 |
| Ricci is going to look to wrestle as she does every fight so her floor in a decision win is higher than most fighters. She hasn't broken 100 pts in any fight yet but at $8900 but with Penne holding a career rate of only defending 22% of takedowns successfully she has a path to a high score. | |||||
| Raoni Barcelos | 9000 | Trevin Jones | Moderate | -230 | +180 |
| Barcelos has the volume to put up a high score, but the version of him that shows up Saturday night could look like a -600 favorite or a +300 underdog. He gets hit and rocked often in his fights and Trevin Jones is a KO or bust fighter. I think Barcelos should win on volume but aging 135 lb fighters are normally a red flag and after taking a beating last time out we could see a steep decline here. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Mike Davis | 8600 | Viacheslav Borshchev | Moderate | -180 | +175 |
| Mike Davis has been a madman in his last two fights landing 100+ ss and multiple takedowns in each of them so he has a high floor and a high ceiling. Borshchev gets taken down in all of his fights, highlighted by Diakese taking him down 11 times in his last outing. Borshschev has been able to get up when taken down so if Davis wants to use his wrestling his cardio needs to be on point. I'm playing Davis in both cash and GPPs lineups | |||||
| Jesse Ronson | 7800 | Joaquim Silva | Moderate | +125 | +250 |
| Ronson didn't look great in his last fight out coming back off of his suspension but I'm hoping he can turn it around here in his second outing. Silva has been KO'd quickly in back-to-back fights and while I don't have high confidence in Ronson winning I think he has a decent chance to score well if he does get the win. He won't be my first piece into a lineup but if I end up with $7800 for my last piece when making a lineup, I won't back off of him. | |||||
| Brendan Allen | 7900 | Krzysztof Jotko | Somewhat-Risky | +105 | +275 |
| Allen may end up becoming a play that gets a lot of ownership being only +105 at $7900 which gives me hesitation. Jotko is durable and can slow the pace of a fight as needed. Allen's game plan changes fight to fight so you never know if he is going to decide to use his wrestling or not even if it looks like he has an advantage there. I like Allen to get the win here and would even make him the favorite in this spot if I was setting the line, but I may opt for a play that has more upside. He is safe for cash game lineups and can be used in GPPs. | |||||
| Maxim Grishin | 8500 | Philipe Lins | Somewhat-Risky | -180 | +225 |
| Grishin is a kickboxer that throws pretty low volume, so he is going to be KO or bust in this spot. Lins has looked terrible since coming over from the PFL organization as their heavyweight champion. I think Grishin gets it done here but don't have confidence in him scoring well. | |||||
| Chelsea Chandler | 8000 | Julija Stoliarenko | Somewhat-Risky | -105 | +350 |
| This fight takes place at a catchweight of 140lbs as Chandler comes down from the 145 lb division. Chandler looked slow and plodding when tape studying her other fights, but she is willing to throw to get into range to get the takedown. With so many question marks in the mid-range this week at least I know what Chandler is going to try to do which is more than can be said for most of these fighters. I don't hate her in cash games as the last piece but will likely avoid her in GPPs. | |||||
| Joaquim Silva | 8400 | Jesse Ronson | Somewhat-Risky | -145 | +165 |
| He doesn't throw much volume, but Ronson is an aging fighter whose best days were before he popped for PEDs so a KO is in play here. Silva's nickname is "Neto BJJ" but he rarely even attempts to get the fight to the ground, he is a KO or bust play but likely comes in with very low ownership. If he hits and you play him in a GPP you will get a huge leg up on the field. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Guido Cannetti | 7000 | Randy Costa | Somewhat-Risky | +240 | +380 |
| Cannetti is going to bring the heat like he always does early in the fight. He should have a wrestling advantage here and his best path to victory may be to use the wrestling to drain Costa's gas tank. Cannetti has bad cardio but at least I've seen him survive 15 full minutes in a fight before so I know he can do it if he has to. I'll be overweight to the field in this spot | |||||
| Trevin Jones | 7200 | Raoni Barcelos | Somewhat-Risky | +195 | +400 |
| Jones is KO or bust but with how reckless Barcelos has been his last few fights he should be able to land a few. High ceiling, low floor play. | |||||
| Aleksei Oleinik | 7500 | Ilir Latifi | Risky | +155 | +215 |
| I expect this fight to be sloppy, but Oleinik has the advantage in grappling and reach so I'm taking a shot on the underdog here. Latifi is only 5'10 and fights at heavyweight so he is massively undersized for the division, but he makes up for it in power. If Oleinik can avoid the one-and-done punches from Latifi he should be able to control the fight against the cage and maybe get it to the ground. Latifi has never been subbed but I wouldn't rule out Oleinik pulling one off. | |||||
| Jessica Penne | 7300 | Tabatha Ricci | Risky | +185 | +550 |
| I don't love Penne in this spot against a better grappler, but if I've learned anything in woman's MMA it's that the armbar from the bottom is always live and for someone with 9 professional wins by submission I wouldn't be shocked to see Penne pull it off. | |||||
| Viacheslav Borshchev | 7600 | Mike Davis | Risky | +155 | +330 |
| Knockout or bust, but his takedown defense has been so bad I don't expect him to get much time on the feet. | |||||
| Daniel Santos | 7400 | John Castaneda | Risky | +155 | +400 |
| Santos was completely outmatched in his UFC debut getting out struck by nearly 75 ss, but this is a major step down in competition from that outing. Neither of these fighters have been finished in the last 8 years so I'm expecting this gets to the judges’ scorecards. I'm avoiding this fight in my lineups but if I had to play a piece it would be Santos as a punt play as I'm prioritizing other fighters in the high price range. | |||||
| Don Shainis | 6700 | Sodiq Yusuff | Risky | +700 | +1200 |
| Watching some of Shainis tape I wouldn't be surprised if he just comes out looking reckless and going for a finish. KO or bust | |||||
| Francisco Trinaldo | 6900 | Randy Brown | Risky | +270 | +650 |
| Old man Trinaldo is going to look to counter his way to a KO win, he throws almost no volume so I don't expect him to get one here. | |||||
Sample DFS Lineup
Live Dogs
Cannetti, Jones, Allen, Ronson, Chandler
Stats and Picks
Mackenzie Dern | vs | Yan Xiaonan |
$9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 12-2-0 | Record | Record: 15-3-0 (1 NC) |
0 | Knockouts | 6 |
7 | Subs | 1 |
-230 | Vegas Odds | +195 |
Randy Brown | vs | Francisco Trinaldo |
$9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 15-4-0 | Record | Record: 28-8-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 10 |
5 | Subs | 5 |
-325 | Vegas Odds | +270 |
Raoni Barcelos | vs | Trevin Jones |
$9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
| Record: 16-3-0 | Record | Record: 13-8-0 (1 NC) |
8 | Knockouts | 3 |
2 | Subs | 4 |
-230 | Vegas Odds | +195 |
Sodiq Yusuff | vs | Don Shainis |
$9,500 | DFS Salary | $6,700 |
| Record: 12-2-0 | Record | Record: 12-3-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 8 |
0 | Subs | 2 |
-1100 | Vegas Odds | +700 |
John Castaneda | vs | Daniel Santos |
$8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 19-5-0 | Record | Record: 8-2-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 4 |
7 | Subs | 2 |
-180 | Vegas Odds | +155 |
0 | ||
Mike Davis | vs | Viacheslav Borshchev |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
| Record: 9-2-0 | Record | Record: 6-2-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 5 |
1 | Subs | 0 |
-180 | Vegas Odds | +155 |
Ilir Latifi | vs | Aleksei Oleinik |
$8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record: 16-8-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 60-16-1 |
5 | Knockouts | 8 |
5 | Subs | 47 |
-180 | Vegas Odds | +155 |
Jessica Penne | vs | Tabatha Ricci |
$7,300 | DFS Salary | $8,900 |
| Record: 14-7-0 | Record | Record: 7-1-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 1 |
9 | Subs | 2 |
+185 | Vegas Odds | -215 |
Joaquim Silva | vs | Jesse Ronson |
$8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
| Record: 11-4-0 | Record | Record: 21-11-0 (1 NC) |
7 | Knockouts | 9 |
3 | Subs | 8 |
-145 | Vegas Odds | +125 |
Krzysztof Jotko | vs | Brendan Allen |
$8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
| Record: 24-5-0 | Record | Record: 19-5-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 5 |
2 | Subs | 10 |
-125 | Vegas Odds | +105 |
Maxim Grishin | vs | Philipe Lins |
$8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
| Record: 32-9-2 | Record | Record: 15-5-0 |
16 | Knockouts | 8 |
6 | Subs | 4 |
-180 | Vegas Odds | +155 |
Julija Stoliarenko | vs | Chelsea Chandler |
$8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
| Record: 10-7-2 | Record | Record: 4-1-0 |
0 | Knockouts | 1 |
10 | Subs | 1 |
-115 | Vegas Odds | -105 |
Guido Cannetti | vs | Randy Costa |
$7,000 | DFS Salary | $9,200 |
| Record: 9-7-0 | Record | Record: 6-3-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 6 |
3 | Subs | 0 |
+240 | Vegas Odds | -285 |
PrizePicks Props
Costa O 25.5 strikes landed
Davis O 83.5 fantasy points
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