MMA DFS Playbook UFC Fight Night December 17: Top DraftKings Picks
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs Strickland kicks off with the Prelims at 4:00 PM on ESPN+ followed by the Main Card at 7:00 PM on ESPN+. Check out all of the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in Discord or on Twitter at @consortiumDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event on DraftKings. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
MMA DFS Top Picks for UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs Strickland
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Jarred Cannonier/Sean Strickland | 8500/7700 | - | Stackability: Low | -110/-110 | -120 |
The Main Event this week features title challenger Jared Cannonier vs Sean Strickland in a five round main event that has the odds currently sitting at even. Strickland throws a ton of volume but doesn't have any finishing ability, so he needs to avoid Cannoniers power for five rounds to get the win here. I think at some point Cannonier is going to catch Strickland, so I'll be backing him in this spot but with how these guys fight they aren't locks to make it to the optimal lineup in a win since Strickland even landing 150ss with no takedowns only scores 90pts and a low volume second or third round knockout is in play for Cannonier as well. I'll be playing around 30-35% Cannonier and 15-20% Strickland in my GPP lineups. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Amir Albazi | 9600 | Alessandro Costa | Somewhat-Safe | -390 | -135 |
Albazi checks all the boxes you could want in a $9600 fighter. Aggression, well rounded, looks to finish, and has advantages everywhere this fight takes place, so he is well worth the price this week. The only concern is if he pays off the $9600 price tag, and on this card, I think there are enough underdogs with a shot to make it work. | |||||
Michal Oleksiejczuk | 9400 | Cody Brundage | Somewhat-Safe | -280 | -135 |
Mikey O looked great in his first fight down at 185 lbs and he has a favorable matchup here that I think he can take advantage of. He was out of place fighting some of the top end 205 lb fighters and was always giving up too much size. His cardio could still be a concern since we haven't seen him really tested at 185 lbs, but if I'm playing him, I am banking on him getting the quick finish and hoping to not have to see his cardio tested. | |||||
Jake Matthews | 9200 | Matthew Semelsberger | Moderate | -300 | +175 |
Matthews has had an up and down career so far in the UFC, but he should be able to utilize his wrestling to get Semelsberger to the ground here. Matthews lacks the killer instinct at times and has no problem playing the control game instead of pushing for a finish, so I'll have some other fighters over him in a lot of lineups, but he has the wrestling skills to score well in a decision victory as well so don't write him off completely. | |||||
Manel Kape | 9100 | David Dvorak | Moderate | -245 | +140 |
Kape has been hit or miss throughout his UFC tenure so far, he either comes out pressuring or just stares at his opponent and lands absolutely no volume. Hopefully after his last two fights where he landed massive knockouts in the first round, he has found his confidence and just lets his hands go. Dvorak is always in close, competitive fights so if Kape can't get him out of there this fight could get greasy. Kape should get it done early here if his mental game is in check. | |||||
Arman Tsarukyan | 8900 | Damir Ismagulov | Moderate | -190 | +275 |
Arman is one of the top wrestlers in the division but faces a tough opponent in Damir in this week's co-main event. Damir has decent wrestling himself and has shown good takedown defense so if Tsarukyan can't get this fight to the ground, he is in jeopardy of a low scoring decision. I really think Tsarukyan is going to be in the top 5 one day so I'll be overweight to the field in this spot, but he is far from a lineup lock. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Drew Dober | 8600 | Bobby Green | Moderate | -150 | +190 |
The biggest chin in the UFC takes on all action Bobby Green in what should be all action. I love Dober's pace and his ability to mix up his wrestling, but Green is a tough task. I have Dober up this high because whoever wins this fight needs to land 100+ ss and a takedown or two if they don't find a finish so for 8600/7600 this fight has a great floor and ceiling combination. | |||||
Rafa Garcia | 8400 | Maheshate | Moderate | -145 | +350 |
Rafa is aggressive and Maheshate still has a lot of question marks to his game. Rafa wrestles, lands volume, and has power to finish fights which I think he does here. Rafa will end up as one of my highest owned fighters, especially at his reasonable price of $8400. | |||||
Julian Erosa | 8800 | Alex Caceres | Somewhat-Risky | -170 | +215 |
Erosa has cardio, volume, and grit to push through adversity but sometimes his chin leaves him. Caceres isn't a power puncher so I'm not too worried about him getting knocked out in this matchup, but Caceres ability to move along the outside of the cage and stay at range could lead to a low scoring fight if Erosa can't close the distance. For those reasons I'll be looking elsewhere in this range. | |||||
Saidyokub Kakhramonov | 8000 | Said Nurmagomedov | Somewhat-Risky | -115 | +300 |
Kakhramonov can wrestle and is the favorite in the fight at only $8000 so he'll have some ownership. I'm hoping people see "Nurmagomedov" as his opponent and think Said is a wrestler, but that simply isn't the case as he sticks to striking. If the fight stays standing Kakhramonov isn't going to look great, so he needs to land takedowns, but after landing 10 in his last fight I think the same path is there for him here. | |||||
Rinat Fakhretdinov | 8300 | Bryan Battle | Somewhat-Risky | -145 | +215 |
Fakhretdinov likes to wrestle, and Battle has offered almost no resistance when stopping takedowns against opponents who are way worse at wrestling. This likely ends in a boring decision if the fight goes Fakhretdinov's way but he showed last time out even in a boring decision he can score well over 100 points. | |||||
Maheshate | 7800 | Rafa Garcia | Somewhat-Risky | +125 | +275 |
He ran through Steve Garcia in his last fight, but Rafa is a different matchup here. The good thing with fighting someone like Garcia you'll have to land a ton of volume on the feet, or out wrestle him so if Maheshate does win he is going to score well. I won't be playing much but if Rafa comes out careless like Steve Garcia did last time Maheshate has the power to end him. | |||||
Bryan Battle | 7900 | Rinat Fakhretdinov | Risky | +125 | +400 |
Battle is well rounded, but he is probably way behind on the wrestling in this fight. If he keeps it standing, he has a clear path to winning this fight. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Bobby Green | 7600 | Drew Dober | Somewhat-Risky | +130 | +550 |
Green is going to be in a dog fight with Dober and I personally line the fight at -110/-110 so I'll have plenty of green in my lineups. If you throw out his fight with the champ Islam Makhachev, Green has landed multiple takedowns or 120+ ss in all of his fights that have gone past the first round since 2018 so his floor is really high even in a loss. I think his boxing is better than Dober’s, so I'll be locking plenty of Green into my lineups. | |||||
Alex Caceres | 7400 | Julian Erosa | Somewhat-Risky | +145 | +425 |
On a normal slate +145 for $7400 would become the major chalk value but there are a ton of close fights on this card so his ownership should be in check. Caceres likes to fight completely in, trying to get on the opponents back, or completely out keeping the fight at range so he should try to mix it up. He will have the most success if he can get this fight in the clinch and take Erosa's back, but Erosa has never been submitted in his UFC run so that is a tough task. I think this ends up being a close fight, so I'll be taking some shots on the underdog. | |||||
Damir Ismagulov | 7300 | Arman Tsarukyan | Risky | +160 | +650 |
Ismagulov is a talented striker, and the price is right to take a shot on him as a dog in this spot, but Arman is tough to finish, and the wrestling may be too much. I won't have much Damir only because the way he wins this fight is by keeping it standing and striking at range, and I don't think it scores enough to be worth the risk with other fighters in this range. | |||||
Cory McKenna | 7200 | Cheyanne Vlismas | Risky | +160 | +700 |
McKenna needs to wrestle if she wants any chance at winning this fight. She has one of the shortest reaches in UFC history so on the feet she isn't going to offer up much and Vlismas throws a ton of volume. When McKenna gets in close, she normally controls her opponents well and racks up control time, while also landing 50%+ of her takedown attempts. If she works the proper game plan, she has a chance here and in a victory with 3+ takedowns, long periods of control time, and some strikes landed she'll score enough to have a chance at landing on the optimal lineup. | |||||
Matthew Semelsberger | 7000 | Jake Matthews | Risky | +250 | +550 |
Semelsberger needs to avoid being taken down here to have a chance, and unfortunately, I don't think he is able to do it. He is talented enough if it stays standing to win the fight so for $7000 you could do worse, but I won't be playing much. | |||||
Journey Newson | 6900 | Sergey Morozov | Risky | +250 | +500 |
Newson looked awful at his first run in the UFC but came back for his second stint with some wrestling to go with his boxing. He'll need to use that wrestling here to have any chance since Morozov only looks to takedown and control the fight. If Morozov has attempted at least 10 takedowns in all of his fights that went past round 2 so, I'll be avoiding Newson only because if he has to fight off takedowns that frequently he won't be scoring points of his own while doing it. | |||||
Alessandro Costa | 6600 | Amir Albazi | Risky | +320 | +700 |
Costa has some skill but looked uncomfortable on the feet when he was backing up in some of his fights that I watched (all be it was tough to find all of them with the promotions he was fighting for). Albazi loves to pressure so unless Costa can land a perfect counter, I don't think he has success here. Knockout or bust. | |||||
David Dvorak | 7100 | Manel Kape | Risky | +205 | +650 |
Dvorak has a chance here against Kape if Kape isn't pushing any pace and it becomes a sparring match, but if someone is getting finished, I think Dvorak is going to be the one who takes the loss. I don't see enough of a pace in this fight to justify a fighter who is +650 to win inside the distance when Costa has the same odds to finish for $500 cheaper. |
MMA DFS Example Lineup
UFC Fight Night Live Dogs
- Jared Cannonier
- Bobby Green
- Cory McKenna
- Alex Caceres
UFC Fight Night Stats and Picks
Jared Cannonier | vs | Sean Strickland |
$7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
Record: 15-6-0 | Record | Record: 25-4-0 |
10 | Knockouts | 10 |
2 | Subs | 4 |
-110 | Vegas Odds | -110 |
Arman Tsarukyan | vs | Damir Ismagulov |
$8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
Record: 18-3-0 | Record | Record: 24-1-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 12 |
5 | Subs | 1 |
-190 | Vegas Odds | +160 |
Amir Albazi | vs | Alessandro Costa |
$9,600 | DFS Salary | $6,600 |
Record: 15-1-0 | Record | Record: 11-2-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 3 |
9 | Subs | 6 |
-390 | Vegas Odds | +320 |
Alex Caceres | vs | Julian Erosa |
$7,400 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
Record: 19-13-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 28-10-0 |
3 | Knockouts | 11 |
7 | Subs | 12 |
+145 | Vegas Odds | -170 |
Drew Dober | vs | Bobby Green |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
Record: 25-11-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 29-13-1 |
12 | Knockouts | 10 |
6 | Subs | 8 |
-150 | Vegas Odds | +130 |
0 | ||
Cody Brundage | vs | Michal Oleksiejczuk |
$6,800 | DFS Salary | $9,400 |
Record: 8-2-0 | Record | Record: 17-5-0 (1 NC) |
4 | Knockouts | 12 |
3 | Subs | 1 |
+240 | Vegas Odds | -280 |
Cheyanne Vlismas | vs | Cory McKenna |
$9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
Record: 7-2-0 | Record | Record: 7-2-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 2 |
0 | Subs | 2 |
-190 | Vegas Odds | +160 |
Jake Matthews | vs | Matthew Semelsberger |
$9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
Record: 18-5-0 | Record | Record: 10-4-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 6 |
7 | Subs | 1 |
-300 | Vegas Odds | +250 |
Said Nurmagomedov | vs | Saidyokub Kakhramonov |
$8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
Record: 16-2-0 | Record | Record: 10-2-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 3 |
4 | Subs | 4 |
-105 | Vegas Odds | -115 |
Rafa Garcia | vs | Maheshate |
$8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
Record: 14-3-0 | Record | Record: 9-1-0 |
1 | Knockouts | 4 |
8 | Subs | 1 |
-135 | Vegas Odds | +115 |
Bryan Battle | vs | Rinat Fakhretdinov |
$7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
Record: 9-1-0 | Record | Record: 19-1-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 11 |
4 | Subs | 5 |
+125 | Vegas Odds | -145 |
David Dvorak | vs | Manel Kape |
$7,100 | DFS Salary | $9,100 |
Record: 20-4-0 | Record | Record: 17-6-0 |
8 | Knockouts | 11 |
8 | Subs | 5 |
+205 | Vegas Odds | -245 |
Sergey Morozov | vs | Journey Newson |
$9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
Record: 18-5-0 | Record | Record: 10-3-0 (1 NC) |
8 | Knockouts | 3 |
3 | Subs | 3 |
-300 | Vegas Odds | +250 |
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