MMA DFS Playbook: UFC 295 Prochazka vs Pereira Top DraftKings & UFC DFS Picks
UFC 295 Prochazka vs Pereira takes place this weekend live from “The Mecca” Madison Square Garden in New York with the Prelims at 6:00 PM on ESPN+, followed by the Featured Prelims at 8:00 PM on ESPN+ and finally the Main Card at 10:00 on ESPN+ PPV. The Main Event features former champion Jiri Prochazka facing off against former Middleweight Champion Alex Pereira in a fight for the Light Heavyweight Title. Fireworks fly in the co-main event as Sergei Pavlovich and Tom Aspinall face off for the Heavyweight Title in a fight that won’t need any judges to determine the winner.
Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below, and as always feel free to reach out to me in Discord or on Twitter at @consortiumDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
MMA DFS Playbook for UFC 295: Prochazka vs Pereira
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Jiri Prochazka vs Alex Pereira | 7800/8400 | - | Stackability: Low | 105/ -200 | 150./100. |
| A main event at lightweight this week features Alex Pereira facing off against the returning champion Jiri Prochazka. Pereira is going to know his opponent well as his MMA coach/mentor Glover Texeira lost his belt to Jiri but was cleaning winning the fight before a late hail mary submission. Jiri has the volume advantage and probably the speed advantage as well, but being a year removed from competition and coming back from terrible shoulder surgery is a major red flag. I think Alex can control the pace of the fight and land the more precise and powerful shots on the way to victory. Both of these fighters are viable for tournaments, but I'll be leaning toward Alex just because I think he gets the job done. This fight is -110 for round 3 to start so if you play cash games and want to stack up one fight, this is the one to choose. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Mateusz Rebecki | 9600 | Roosevelt Roberts | Somewhat-Safe | -700 | |
| He's -700 on a card with a ton of question marks. Roberts is tough, but I think Rebecki should be able to lead the dance wherever the fight takes place. I think he's more likely to end the fight with a submission as Roberts has been durable, but other than volume I don't think he has too much to worry about. Roberts has a 7-inch reach advantage so if for some reason Rebecki can't figure out how to get inside of it, that could be the only way I see him losing this fight. | |||||
| Benoit Saint Denis | 9100 | Matt Frevola | Somewhat-Safe | -225 | -150 |
| This is the upside play in this price range. While he's going against the most talented of the fighters in this range, I think Frevola is a great dance partner for Saint Denis. Frevola is willing to stand and trade shots in the pocket which will ultimately be his demise, but even if this fight hits the ground, I think it will be Saint Denis getting it there and leading the action. | |||||
| Joshua Van | 9200 | Kevin Borjas | Somewhat-Safe | -225 | 130. |
| I was really impressed by Van in his last fight against Zhalgas Zhumagulov and think he has the pressure to really make a statement here. His opponent is pretty one-dimensional, so I think this is actually an easier opponent for him than when he made his UFC debut. Van has stated in interviews that he is going to try to get a first-round finish so let's hope it comes true. | |||||
| Jamall Emmers | 9400 | Dennis Buzukja | Moderate | -270 | 250. |
| I think Emmers wins this fight and if we were playing UFC 4 on PlayStation controlling him, he would win this fight. His wrestling is good for the division, but he sometimes forgets to use it. He lost to a top 15 fighter in Giga Chikadze by not wrestling until he was already down two rounds and lost to Pay Sabbatini by trying to drop down and hunt a heel hook when he had him hurt so I don't expect him to fight smart. Buzukja was taken down 4 times by Sean Woodson (who had 0 career takedown attempts through 7 UFC fights before that) so I expect the takedowns to be there whenever he wants it. This is Buzukja's first full camp in the UFC so maybe I'm underrating him here, but I don't think so. | |||||
| Mackenzie Dern | 9000 | Jessica Andrade | Moderate | -205 | 100. |
| Dern looked great last time out, going five rounds against a tough opponent in Angela Hill which means I'm going to stop saying she has cardio issues. Andrade is heading into the octagon for the fifth time this year and mentioned in interviews that she was taking all of these fights because she was getting a divorce and needed the money so I'm not expecting her at her best here. Andrade always had suspect takedown defense and if Dern can get her down, she may be able to get a quick submission win. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Tom Aspinall | 8200 | Sergei Pavlovich | Moderate | -118 | -105 |
| I have to put this fight at the top of the list because in all likelihood the winner of this fight is on the optimal lineup. Aspinall has a more well-rounded skill set so I'm slightly leaning towards him, as we've seen Pavlovich outwrestled before. He isn't on a full camp, so I'm nervous if this fight gets extended even into Round 2 if he will be able to keep up his pace. | |||||
| Sergei Pavlovich | 8000 | Tom Aspinall | Moderate | -102 | 110. |
| Pavlovich has been on an absolute tear of late finishing Tai Tuivasa and Derrick Lewis in the first round. He has the power and speed advantage, so I expect him to come out swinging heavy right from the bell. This fight is -1600 not to go to decision so make sure you have a piece of it. | |||||
| Jared Gordon | 8900 | Mark Madsen | Somewhat-Risky | -205 | 300. |
| I don't love the mid-range this week outside of the co-main event but think this fight is interesting. Jared Gordon made his mark in the UFC being someone who will outwork you for three rounds and finish you late, and against an Olympic Wrestling Silver Medalist in Mark Madsen he will need to do that hear. Madsen has power early but tends to fade late and if Gordon withstands the early pressure, I think he can find the late KO. | |||||
| Steve Erceg | 8600 | Alessandro Costa | Somewhat-Risky | -205 | 200. |
| Erceg is the best odds value on the slate, so I expect that to come with some ownership. Erceg has decent striking, but I think he'll be able to excel here with his wrestling and submission skills. Costa has shown strong wrestling defense in his three UFC fights so there is a chance he can keep it standing, but I think Erceg is good enough to get this fight to the ground if needed and that should be enough for him to win this fight. | |||||
| Loopy Godinez | 8700 | Tabatha Ricci | Somewhat-Risky | -180 | 380. |
| I thought this fight would be lined a little closer, but that doesn't mean that this fight doesn't come with a sneaky upside. Whichever woman of these two ends up being the better wrestler will likely dominate this fight. Ricci is going to shoot for takedowns early, and if Godinez stops them, she should be able to box her up, or land her own takedowns and control the fight. | |||||
| John Castaneda | 8800 | Kyung Ho Kang | Somewhat-Risky | -130 | 275. |
| Castaneda has a knockdown in four straight fights, so he has legitimate power, but this pricing mixed with his odds is a bit concerning. For $8800 he is only -130, while $8600 Erceg is -205 so he probably won't get much consideration in this range, but I think that is a mistake. Kang has been extremely durable throughout his long career, having never been knocked out in the UFC, but he is now 37 years old so at some point father time will catch up to him. | |||||
| Diego Lopes | 7900 | Pat Sabatini | Risky | 102 | 150. |
| Lopes has good Jiu Jitsu and is willing to do whatever it takes to use it during the fight. He has a great inside the distance line for an underdog, so he is going to be chalky but if he wins, he'll likely hit the optimal lineup with a first or second round finish. He does have a bad habit of staying on his back too long if he is taken down, so if Sabatini lands a takedown, he should be able to get a ton of control time which makes him a great play as well. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Viacheslav Borshchev | 7700 | Nazim Sadykhov | Somewhat-Risky | 105 | 200. |
| He has the striking to get the job done here, and Nazim was getting worked by Terrence McKinney in the f first round before he gassed. As always Borchschev is a liability in the takedown defense department, but if it stays standing, he can win this fight. | |||||
| Tabatha Ricci | 7500 | Loopy Godinez | Somewhat-Risky | 150 | 800. |
| Ricci has been on a tear lately and if she can get her wrestling going early on, she could be able to run away with this. I don't think she has the highest ceiling, but she has a decent win probability at these odds and the upside of takedowns to score 80+ even in a decision. | |||||
| Kyung Ho Kang | 7400 | John Castaneda | Risky | 110 | 400. |
| He is a +110 underdog at only $7,400 and is going to lead a lot of people onto Kang. Kang is well-rounded, and he'll use his wrestling if he wants to avoid the power that Castaneda packs. He's a lock for cash game lineups at his odds which probably leads him to increased ownership. | |||||
| Matt Frevola | 7100 | Benoit Saint Denis | Risky | 185 | 320. |
| Frevola probably gets the highest ownership out of all of the "punt" options, but it comes with contest-winning upside. His last three wins have all scored over 100 fantasy points, and he has never scored below 75 in a win so if he gets the win at this price he likely ends up in the optimal lineup. He has wrestling to fall back on, but I think he ends up just coming forward and trying to land hooks in the pocket. | |||||
| Mark Madsen | 7300 | Jared Gordon | Risky | 180 | 700. |
| Madsen comes out hot early on and has the wrestling advantage while they are both fresh. If he can hold off gassing until later into the second round, he could win this by decision. He should go overlooked between Kang and Frevola, and while his inside the distance line is very high, he still has the ability to land a ton of takedowns. Gordon pushes a pace that forces others to throw more than they are comfortable. | |||||
| Alessandro Costa | 7600 | Steve Erceg | Risky | 170 | 300. |
| I have a lot of respect for Erceg, but Costa has his best chance early on in this fight. He is only +300 to win inside the distance, which is a great price for a dog, but it really feels like he needs to land the knockout early or he is going to be in trouble as Erceg is proven to go hard for the entire fight. | |||||
| Jessica Andrade | 7200 | Mackenzie Dern | Risky | 170 | 350. |
| Andrade is a legend in woman's MMA having won the belt at this weight class in the past, but this isn't the best version of herself. This will be her 5th fight since January, and she has admitted she is only taking these fights to pay for her divorce that she is going through. Her takedown defense has always been her weakness and if this hits the ground it'll probably be a quick end to the fight. Andrade has landed 200+ significant strikes in a three round fight this year already so at her best she breaks this slate, but I don't think she does that come Saturday. | |||||
| Dennis Buzukja | 6800 | Jamall Emmers | Risky | 220 | 600. |
| Buzukja is a hometown guy on the curtain jerker, so he'll get the hometown pop anytime he does anything in the fight. Emmers is known for losing close decisions so if Buzukja keeps it close he could get a greasy decision. This is also his first fight in the UFC with a full camp so there is a chance he looks way better than he has in the past, but I'm not banking on that. | |||||
Sample Lineup
Live Dogs
Pavlovich, Prochazka, Lopes, Frevola, Ricci
Picks and Stats
Jiri Prochazka | vs | Alex Pereira |
$7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
| Record: 29-3-1 | Record | Record: 8-2-0 |
25 | Knockouts | 6 |
3 | Subs | 0 |
105 | Vegas Odds | -200 |
Sergei Pavlovich | vs | Tom Aspinall |
$8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
| Record: 18-1-0 | Record | Record: 13-3-0 |
15 | Knockouts | 10 |
0 | Subs | 3 |
-102 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
Jessica Andrade | vs | Mackenzie Dern |
$7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
| Record: 24-12-0 | Record | Record: 13-3-0 |
9 | Knockouts | 0 |
8 | Subs | 7 |
170 | Vegas Odds | -205 |
Matt Frevola | vs | Benoit Saint Denis |
$7,100 | DFS Salary | $9,100 |
| Record: 11-3-1 | Record | Record: 12-1-0 (1 NC) |
4 | Knockouts | 3 |
3 | Subs | 9 |
185 | Vegas Odds | -225 |
Diego Lopes | vs | Pat Sabatini |
$7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
| Record: 22-6-0 | Record | Record: 18-4-0 |
8 | Knockouts | 2 |
12 | Subs | 11 |
102 | Vegas Odds | -122 |
0 | ||
Steve Erceg | vs | Alessandro Costa |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
| Record: 10-1-0 | Record | Record: 13-3-0 |
1 | Knockouts | 4 |
6 | Subs | 6 |
-205 | Vegas Odds | 170 |
Tabatha Ricci | vs | Loopy Godinez |
$7,500 | DFS Salary | $8,700 |
| Record: 9-1-0 | Record | Record: 11-3-0 |
1 | Knockouts | 10 |
3 | Subs | 3 |
150 | Vegas Odds | -180 |
Mateusz Rebecki | vs | Roosevelt Roberts |
$9,600 | DFS Salary | $6,600 |
| Record: 17-1-0 | Record | Record: 12-4-0 (1 NC) |
9 | Knockouts | 4 |
6 | Subs | 5 |
-700 | Vegas Odds | 500 |
Nazim Sadykhov | vs | Viacheslav Borshchev |
$8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
| Record: 9-1-0 | Record | Record: 7-3-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 6 |
2 | Subs | 0 |
-125 | Vegas Odds | 105 |
Jared Gordon | vs | Mark Madsen |
$8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 19-6-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 12-1-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 3 |
2 | Subs | 3 |
-205 | Vegas Odds | 180 |
John Castaneda | vs | Kyung Ho Kang |
$8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 20-6-0 | Record | Record: 19-9-0 (1 NC) |
8 | Knockouts | 2 |
6 | Subs | 12 |
-130 | Vegas Odds | 110 |
Joshua Van | vs | Kevin Borjas |
$9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
| Record: 8-1-0 | Record | Record: 9-1-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 8 |
2 | Subs | 0 |
-225 | Vegas Odds | 185 |
Dennis Buzukja | vs | Jamall Emmers |
$6,800 | DFS Salary | $9,400 |
| Record: 8-3-0 | Record | Record: 8-3-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 7 |
1 | Subs | 3 |
220 | Vegas Odds | -270 |
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