MMA DFS Playbook UFC 283, January 21st: Top DraftKings Picks
UFC 283: Teixeira vs Hill kicks off with the Early Prelims at 6:00 PM on ESPN+ followed by the Prelims on ABC/ESPN+ at 8:00 PM, and finally, the PPV at 10PM on ESPN+.
Check out all of the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always, feel free to reach out to me in Discord or on Twitter at @consortiumDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
MMA DFS Playbook for UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Glover Teixeira vs Jamahal Hill | 7800/8400 | - | Stackability: Low | -140/+120 | +165/-110 |
| An unlikely matchup for the vacant title finds former champion Glover Teixeira vs #7 ranked Jamahal Hill. Hill has fast hands and the power that gives Glover trouble early in fights. Glover has been a slow starter in recent years but his durability and ground game help him survive any early adversity before he flips the switch late. He was minutes away from retaining his belt last time out before trying to chase a submission ended up costing him the fight. Glover is now 43 years old and father time eventually catches up to everyone so I'm going with the younger fighter in Hill to get it done here, but I'll have plenty of both of them in my DraftKings lineups. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Jailton Almeida | 9700 | Shamil Abdurakhimov | Somewhat-Safe | -1000 | -550 |
| Almeida is the safest play on the slate, but he still has some red flags. Almeida has been able to dominate in his UFC career so far by getting the fight to the ground quickly and cruising to a finish with his superior ground game, but we haven't had to see him extended against UFC level competition yet. The other red flag is Almeida normally weighs in at around 218-225 pounds in the heavyweight division so he will be giving up nearly 40 pounds in most of his matchups in the division. With that said, Shamil is on a three-fight losing streak against a similar or lower level of competition, so I think Jailton gets this fight to the ground again and cruises. | |||||
| Jessica Andrade | 9400 | Lauren Murphy | Somewhat-Safe | -490 | -105 |
| Andrade is going to have a massive power advantage like she does in all of her fights, but I think this is really her change to shine in front of her home crowd in Brazil. Murphy is a tough fighter who will get in your face for all 15 minutes, which is exactly what we want in a matchup for DraftKings. Andrade has put up massive scores every time she takes a step back in competition and I don't expect this to be any different. I'm taking Andrade to win by KO. | |||||
| Gilbert Burns | 9300 | Neil Magny | Somewhat-Safe | -460 | -120 |
| Burns has the BJJ advantage here, and while I think this line is a little wider than it should be he makes for a good play this weekend. If he opts to get this fight to the ground he should be way ahead in terms of technique, my main concern is he falls in love with his power sometimes and if he keeps it standing his cardio can be hit or miss so I'm worried he could gas out. | |||||
| Josiane Nunes | 9500 | Zarah Fairn | Moderate | -540 | -165 |
| Nunes is a tank for the 145 lb division standing at only 5'2 so she'll be giving up a ton of reach anytime she steps in the cage, but she has a huge power and speed advantage in this matchup so she should be able to get the job done here. Fairn is a bit of a question mark since her first two matchups were against title challengers, so we don't really know how she'll fair against someone closer to her level. I think Nunes will be one of the lower owned fighters in this price range since she is mostly an unknown compared to Burns and Andrade which makes her a great play for tournaments. | |||||
| Thiago Moises | 9000 | Melquizael Costa | Moderate | -365 | +110 |
| There are a ton of fighters in the expensive tier this week but my last spot I'm reserving for Thiago Moises. He is a great submission grappler and fighting in front of his home crowd I think he'll try to really make a point to show off his BJJ game. My only concerns with Moises are his wrestling isn't great so he isn't going to be spamming multiple takedowns, and he doesn't throw much striking volume so he can get overwhelmed on the feet at times. Due to his lack of volume in both wrestling and striking he needs to get the early finish here to pay off his salary. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Terrance McKinney | 8500 | Ismael Bonfim | Moderate | -125 | -105 |
| This is one of the must play fights on the card this week with an inside the distance line sitting close to -900 so someone is going to score massively for a mid-range price. McKinney is explosive and has great wrestling with crisp striking, but it only lasts for around 3 minutes before he starts to get tired. He showed in his fight against Drew Dober that he chases the finish too hard once he smells blood which while it isn't always the best approach to winning a fight, it is exactly what we want when trying to win a tournament. McKinney should be the lower owned fighter in this matchup since Bonfim is sitting at $7700 and has -105 odds, so I'll be overweight on McKinney but also playing a ton of Bonfim as well. | |||||
| Brandon Moreno | 8000 | Deiveson Figueiredo | Moderate | -125 | +270 |
| The other five round championship bout on this card is the Flyweight title matchup between Moreno and Figueiredo. Both of these fighters have been jumping around camps since the last matchup and I'm not really sure why Figueiredo made the change to leave Henry Cejudo and Fight Ready since he looked career best in his last outing. Moreno has more volume and better wrestling, so I expect him to win a decision here or eventually overwhelm Figueiredo and find a finish. This crowd is going to be cheering anytime Figueiredo does anything so that could influence the judging here. I'll have both of these fighters throughout my lineups, and this fight makes a great stack for cash games. | |||||
| Nicolas Dalby | 7900 | Warlley Alves | Somewhat-Risky | +105 | +250 |
| Dalby is a tough out for anyone and always finds himself in close fights, but I think this is a matchup he can exploit Alves in if he can survive the first round. Alves has been coming out strong in his last few fights early on but has been looking tired by the end of the first round. When both men are fresh, I don't think Dalby has a clear advantage striking or wrestling, but Dalby fights through adversity extremely well and I expect him to get the late finish here. | |||||
| Johnny Walker | 8700 | Paul Craig | Somewhat-Risky | -190 | -150 |
| Truthfully, I've been pretty bad picking which version of Johnny Walker is going to show up in the ring, but he does have a clear path to victory in this matchup as the more powerful and much faster striker. As long as he doesn't end up on the ground with Craig, he should be able to coast to a victory. Craig doesn't have much success wrestling but Walker has been taken down by almost every opponent which is why I have him a little lower on the list. Craig constantly flops to his back in most of his fights and I'm hoping Walker is smart enough to call him up to his feet. The fight is -750 that it doesn't go to decision so it’s either Walker by KO or Craig by Submission. | |||||
| Daniel Marcos | 7600 | Saimon Oliveira | Somewhat-Risky | +120 | +250 |
| This fight should be an exciting opener to the card and from what I've seen Marcos should have an enough striking to warrant playing him as an underdog in this matchup. Oliveira has better offensive wrestling and submissions, but it isn't world class as we saw in his last outing where he was taken down 11 times. I'll be playing Marcos, but this isn't the type of fight you want to be all in on. | |||||
| Paul Craig | 7500 | Johnny Walker | Somewhat-Risky | +160 | +215 |
| Submission or bust for Craig, but his submission game is extremely high level so one takedown may be all he needs to get the win. Craig has submission wins over the last two title challengers in the division (He broke Hill's arm, but Hill didn't tap so it was technically a KO?) so it’s worth it to take some shots on him here. | |||||
| Warlley Alves | 8300 | Nicolas Dalby | Risky | -125 | +180 |
| Alves has the advantages here for as long as his gas tank holds up, but I'm not banking on him being able to get Dalby out of here since no one else really has been able to. If you are playing 10 lineups, you can play him in a few but for single entry contests I'll be looking elsewhere. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Mauricio Rua | 7300 | Ihor Potieria | Somewhat-Risky | +175 | +380 |
| Putting Rua first here mainly because I haven't talked about this fight yet, and this is a legend's retirement fight in his home country. The UFC really is trying to get Rua a win here in his retirement fight, but it is going to be a tall task for him. He hasn't looked good in years and if Potieria brings pressure I expect Rua to eventually crumble. I'll be playing both sides in this fight and while I'll be cheering for Shogun here, I don't think he has the skills anymore to get it done. | |||||
| Mounir Lazzez | 7400 | Gabriel Bonfim | Somewhat-Risky | +140 | +350 |
| Lazzez has great kickboxing but faces a tough matchup here in the younger Bonfim brother. Lazzez should come with plenty of ownership at $7400 and only +140 but I think the hype around the Bonfim brothers is going to keep it a little lower than expected. As long as Lazzez keeps it standing he should have the advantage here and that’s enough for me to take a shot on a dog in this spot. | |||||
| Brunno Ferreira | 7100 | Gregory Rodrigues | Risky | +255 | +330 |
| Ferreira has power but his undersized for the division at only 5'10 and 185lbs so he could have issues if Robocop can get on top of him. Ferreira has a ton of power and decent submissions, but he has never gone more than 6 minutes in a fight before and I don't even know if he'll have that much cardio with the way Rodrigues pushes a pace on fighters. | |||||
| Luan Lacerda | 7000 | Cody Stamann | Risky | +300 | +400 |
| Lacerda is submission or bust in this matchup and I don't think he gets it done here. Stamann isn't ranked inside the top 15 but all of his loses in the UFC are against top 15 fighters so he is a real test for up and comers. | |||||
| Melquizael Costa | 7200 | Thiago Moises | Risky | +300 | +475 |
| Costa needs to keep it standing here if he wants to get the win, I probably won't be playing much Costa since I think Moises gets it done but for $7200, he does at least have a path to victory. | |||||
| Neil Magny | 6900 | Gilbert Burns | Risky | +370 | +100 |
| Magny really struggles in matchups where he doesn't have a wrestling advantage and while he continues to fight at a high level, I think his skills have taken a step back in recent years. Even if Magny does show up and is the better wrestler Saturday night, you don't want to be on the ground with Burns. Magny makes a decent punt play in cash games, but I'll be underweighted in tournaments. | |||||
| Lauren Murphy | 6800 | Jessica Andrade | Risky | +390 | +900 |
| Murphy needs to try to get Andrade tired if she wants to have any chance. She'll be a step behind the whole night while they are both fresh, her best chance is to survive an early onslaught and turn the fight around in late round 2 or find a finish in the third. | |||||
Zarah Fairn | 6700 | Josiane Nunes | Risky | +420 | +900 |
| Nunes has been fighting the bottom of the division while Fairn was thrown in against two fighters who were title challengers. It’s hard to take away anything from her tape in matchups where she is clearly overwhelmed but neither woman have shown to have much wrestling defense or offense in their fights so if it stays standing the fight could be closer than expected. | |||||
UFC 283 Example DFS Lineup
UFC 283 Live Dogs
Lazzez, Craig, Teixeira, Dalby, Moreno
Stats and Picks for UFC 283
Glover Teixeira | vs | Jamahal Hill |
$7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
Record: 33-8-0 | Record | Record: 11-1-0 (1 NC) |
18 | Knockouts | 7 |
10 | Subs | 0 |
+120 | Vegas Odds | -140 |
Deiveson Figueiredo | vs | Brandon Moreno |
$8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
Record: 21-2-1 | Record | Record: 20-6-2 |
9 | Knockouts | 4 |
8 | Subs | 11 |
-105 | Vegas Odds | -125 |
Gilbert Burns | vs | Neil Magny |
$9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
Record: 20-5-0 | Record | Record: 27-10-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 7 |
8 | Subs | 4 |
-460 | Vegas Odds | +370 |
Lauren Murphy | vs | Jessica Andrade |
$6,800 | DFS Salary | $9,400 |
Record: 16-5-0 | Record | Record: 23-9-0 |
8 | Knockouts | 9 |
1 | Subs | 8 |
+390 | Vegas Odds | -490 |
Paul Craig | vs | Johnny Walker |
$7,500 | DFS Salary | $8,700 |
Record: 16-5-1 | Record | Record: 19-7-0 |
3 | Knockouts | 15 |
13 | Subs | 3 |
+160 | Vegas Odds | -190 |
0 | ||
Mauricio Rua | vs | Ihor Potieria |
$7,300 | DFS Salary | $8,900 |
Record: 27-13-1 | Record | Record: 19-3-0 |
21 | Knockouts | 8 |
1 | Subs | 6 |
+175 | Vegas Odds | -205 |
Gregory Rodrigues | vs | Brunno Ferreira |
$9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
Record: 13-4-0 | Record | Record: 9-0-0 |
8 | Knockouts | 4 |
3 | Subs | 11 |
-305 | Vegas Odds | +255 |
Thiago Moises | vs | Melquizael Costa |
$9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
Record: 16-6-0 | Record | Record: 19-5-0 |
3 | Knockouts | 7 |
7 | Subs | 6 |
-365 | Vegas Odds | +300 |
Gabriel Bonfim | vs | Mounir Lazzez |
$8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
Record: 13-0-0 | Record | Record: 11-2-0 |
3 | Knockouts | 8 |
10 | Subs | 0 |
-165 | Vegas Odds | +140 |
Shamil Abdurakhimov | vs | Jailton Almeida |
$6,500 | DFS Salary | $9,700 |
Record: 20-7-0 | Record | Record: 17-2-0 |
9 | Knockouts | 6 |
4 | Subs | 11 |
+700 | Vegas Odds | -105 |
Luan Lacerda | vs | Cody Stamann |
$7,000 | DFS Salary | $9,200 |
Record: 12-1-0 | Record | Record: 20-5-1 |
0 | Knockouts | 7 |
10 | Subs | 2 |
+300 | Vegas Odds | -365 |
Ismael Bonfim | vs | Terrance McKinney |
$7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
Record: 18-3-0 | Record | Record: 13-4-0 |
8 | Knockouts | 5 |
4 | Subs | 8 |
+105 | Vegas Odds | -125 |
Warlley Alves | vs | Nicolas Dalby |
$8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
Record: 13-4-0 | Record | Record: 13-4-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 6 |
6 | Subs | 4 |
-125 | Vegas Odds | +105 |
Josiane Nunes | vs | Zarah Fairn |
$9,500 | DFS Salary | $6,700 |
Record: 9-1-0 | Record | Record: 6-4-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 6 |
0 | Subs | 4 |
-540 | Vegas Odds | +420 |
Daniel Marcos | vs | Saimon Oliviera |
$7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
13-0-0 | Record | 18-4-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 5 |
0 | Subs | 11 |
+120 | Vegas Odds | -140 |
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