MMA DFS Playbook UFC 282: Top DraftKings & FanDuel Picks
Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev kicks off with the Early Prelims at 6:00 PM EST on ESPN+, followed by Prelims at 8:00 PM on ESPN2, and finally the Main Card at 10:00 PM on ESPN+ PPV.
Check out all of the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on Twitter at @consortiumDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
UPDATE: The fight between Daniel Da Silva and Vinicius Salvador has been pulled off the card.
MMA DFS Playbook for UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Jan Blachowicz vs Magomed Ankalaev | 7000/9200 | - | Stackability: Low | -320/+260 | -190 |
| The Main Event this week brings us two power hitters in the Light Heavyweight division and should be entertaining for as long as it lasts. Ankalaev has been the up-and-coming prospect for a while now and was only derailed by a last-second submission against Paul Craig (literally 1 second left on the clock and he tapped) and he has shown he can mix in his wrestling and his striking if needed. Jan has power and has already tasted gold in the UFC so coming off of injuries and surgeries that have plagued him for the last couple of years I'm not sure we get the best version of him. I think Ankalaev wins this fight, and I'll probably play some of each of these fighters on DraftKings but it could be a feeling-out process early and neither of them really throws a ton of volume, so they aren't locks for the optimal lineup. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Edmen Shahbazyan | 9400 | Dalcha Lungiambula | Somewhat-Safe | -330 | +100 |
| Shahbazyan has always been a high-level talent, but his cardio constantly lets him down. From what I was able to find he seems to have moved his fight camp so hopefully he is receiving better training and work on the holes in his game. This is a major step down in competition for him here so he should dominate this fight early especially when it comes to getting it on the ground. He likely finds a finish here, but if it gets to Round 3, I'd be nervous that his cardio holds up. | |||||
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 9000 | Jay Perrin | Somewhat-Safe | -245 | +140 |
| Rosas Jr isn't even 18 years old yet, but his skills are way ahead of his years. Rosas is slick on the ground and pushes an extremely quick pace, so Perrin needs to find some success in these transitions or it is going to be one-way traffic. This kid is only in high school, so I don't want to get too excited about his chances after recent flameouts like Chase Hooper, but I think he is for real. My only concern is if Perrin has the strength to stop the takedowns and keep it standing it could get greasy. Rosas likely gets the fight to the ground, and even if Perrin can find some reversals, I think Rosas eventually wins by submission. | |||||
| Paddy Pimblett | 9100 | Jared Gordon | Somewhat-Safe | -250 | -110 |
| Paddy is a fan favorite and I'm assuming is going to be one of the most popular fighters on the slate, but he does have some skills to back it up. Personally, I'm lower on Paddy than the public but this isn't a bad matchup for him here especially since Gordon likes to push the pace which is something we need for DraftKings scoring. Paddy should have some success with the wrestling, and while Gordon doesn't have massive power Paddy is likely going to be behind if this fight stays standing so he should look to get it to the ground. I think it goes to a close decision, so I'll be underweight to the field on Paddy, but his wrestling upside and his submission threat are real. | |||||
| Cameron Saaiman | 9300 | Steven Koslow | Moderate | -360 | -135 |
| Saaiman is another Contender Series fighter who is still young at only 21 years old, but he does have skills and loves to invest in the low leg kick early in fights. Saaiman isn't a quick finisher, but he has a lot of volume and is well-rounded in mixing in his wrestling and striking. Koslow gets the fight to the ground in all of his fights and while it never looks too impressive, he is getting all of his opponents out in Round 1. Koslow's opponents are a combined 13-22 at the time he fought them so we can't take away too much from that, but the later the fight goes the more it should favor Saaiman. Probably sloppy at times but Saaiman could score well here but this isn't a high-confidence play that he ends up on the optimal lineup for someone at $9300. | |||||
| Vinicius Salvador | 8900 | Daniel Da Silva | Moderate | -245 | -190 |
| One of these fighters is probably ending up on the optimal lineup as the fight has a massive -600 line to end inside the distance. Da Silva pushes so much pace and is reckless in his approach so the opening should be there for Salvador to finish this fight. My major concern for Salvador is in every one of his fights he constantly backs up to avoid strikes with his hands low, so he is there to get caught, and he gets taken down frequently but gets up fairly quickly. I'll have plenty of both fighters in my lineups, but I'll be prioritizing Salvador. UPDATE: This fight has been pulled from the card. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 8700 | Chris Daukaus | Moderate | -170 | -125 |
| Rozenstruik has the power to knock out anyone in the division, but he sometimes gets complacent looking for the perfect shot instead of throwing volume. He is a great boom-or-bust fighter and he should be able to find the shot here against Daukaus but if he doesn't find the first-round KO or multiple knockdowns he isn't going to score well. | |||||
| Billy Quarantillo | 8600 | Alexander Hernandez | Moderate | -170 | +165 |
| BillyQ starts slow in most of his fights, but his pace is relentless once he gets going. Hernandez is going to have the wrestling and strength advantage early but after rewatching Quarantillo's fight vs Burgos I don't think Hernandez is going to be able to go that pace for 15 minutes. Decision win or finish I think Quarantillo gets it done here and scores well on DraftKings. Hernandez is also in play but likely needs the finish if he is going to win the fight. | |||||
| Bryce Mitchell | 7800 | Ilia Topuria | Somewhat-Risky | +120 | +350 |
| I've underestimated Mitchell in most of his run-upcounterpuncherback-and-forth in the UFC after he lost on TUF to Brad Katona but I'm finally flipping sides here to grab him as an underdog. For someone with some wild stances on the world, and who cut their scrotum open trying to hop a fence you would think Bryce Mitchell wouldn't have high fight IQ, but he is actually one of the smarter fighters I've watched in the cage. Mitchell knows how to avoid trouble, set up his wrestling, and stick to what is working in order to win fights. His last fight out against Barboza was a perfect example of using effective wrestling to faint and land strikes that the opponent doesn't see coming. I think Bryce is able to survive the early storm of Topuria and eventually smother him and find the late submission. | |||||
| Dricus Du Plessis | 8800 | Darren Till | Somewhat-Risky | -180 | +110 |
| Du Plessis would be higher up on this list if we knew what version of Till was coming into this fight. Till was someone who routinely could be taken down and controlled with almost no ability to get off his back so that is the best path to victory for Dricus in this spot, but Dricus also has the power to end the fight if he needs to. Till is strictly a counter puncher and has no problem standing around and slowing the pace of the fight down to get a decision win so we could be in for a lackluster fight unless Dricus pushes the pace. I think Dricus gets it done but don't want to bank too heavily on him with others priced similarly to him with similar or higher upside. | |||||
| Chris Curtis | 7700 | Joaquin Buckley | Somewhat-Risky | +145 | +275 |
| The Action Man is in a much more favorable matchup here than in his last time out vs Hermansson as he should be the more technical fighter from the outside and his takedown defense has stood up against all of his opponents so far. Buckley has strength and power but rarely lands even 50 strikes in a fight, so he needs to find the big shot to win this fight. Curtis wins by decision is my prediction. | |||||
| Ilia Topuria | 8400 | Bryce Mitchell | Somewhat-Risky | -140 | +180 |
| The other side of the co-main event Topuria in what should be a back and forth fight, Topuria has the skills and power to be a contender in this division but I still believe the wrong man is the favorite in this fight. I'll be off Topuria this week, but with his wrestling and volume in a win, he has a chance to make it onto the optimal lineup. | |||||
| Erik Silva | 8300 | TJ Brown | Risky | -110 | +165 |
| Silva starts his fights fast with the last five averaging under 4 minutes a piece, and while TJ Brown has solid wrestling and has been pretty durable during his UFC run, I think Silva finds the finish here. Silva used his wrestling right away on the Contender Series and he has made it a habit to find his opponents back in scrambles and TJ makes it a habit of sticking his neck out to get caught in submissions. I'd rank Silva higher up here if i didn't also like TJ on DraftKings since TJ normally lands a ton of takedowns even in losses so either side is playable in both cash and tournaments. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Jared Gordon | 7100 | Paddy Pimblett | Somewhat-Risky | +185 | +275 |
| Gordon pushes the pace, and this line seems to have been juiced up high by the Paddy bettors in this spot. Gordon is tough to finish and is the toughest fight Paddy has had in his UFC run so this should be a back-and-forth affair. If the fight extends, I'm always going to back Gordon's cardio, especially as a nearly +200 dog in this spot. | |||||
| Daniel Da Silva | 7300 | Vinicius Salvador | Somewhat-Risky | +205 | +165 |
| Da Silva is all action and Salvador has holes in his wrestling game that can be exploited, I don't want to be too heavy on Da Silva as a sizeable underdog, but with his pace, if he gets the win he'll end up in the optimal lineup and there aren't many underdogs who you can say that about. UPDATE: This fight has been pulled from the card. | |||||
| Darren Till | 7400 | Dricus Du Plessis | Risky | +155 | +330 |
| Till could win this fight by first-round KO, or he could stand there for 15 minutes and land 30 strikes total, either way, I won't be surprised. He is never landed more than 70 strikes in a fight so unless he finds the finish here, I don't think he gets it done. KO or bust. | |||||
| Jay Perrin | 7200 | Raul Rosas Jr. | Risky | +195 | +550 |
| Perrin better be ready to wrestle otherwise he's in for a long night and he's shown some takedowns of his own on tape so he should be well prepared. Rosas was reversed multiple times in his Contender Series debut, so he isn't flawless on the ground, and Perrin has to make him pay when mistakes are made. | |||||
| Steven Koslow | 6900 | Cameron Saaiman | Risky | +295 | +500 |
| Koslow pushes for takedowns and when he gets them, he aggressively hunts submissions and ground-and-pound finishes. While we have not seen him get past Round 1, if I'm trying to win a GPP I need upside, and at $6900 Koslow does have some ability to finish a fight. Saaiman also was not the most impressive on tape when it came to striking as he routinely took one to land one so this fight should be closer than the line suggests. | |||||
| Alex Morono | 7500 | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | Risky | +155 | +600 |
| A late-minute replacement vs Ponzanibio he'll need to mix in his striking and wrestling if he wants the win here because he is giving up speed and power on the feet. I don't love this matchup for him so won't be playing him much this week, but Morono is willing to enter the pocket and trade so someone from this fight may score well. | |||||
| Chris Daukaus | 7500 | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | Risky | +145 | +200 |
| Daukaus is giving up 20 pounds in this spot so he may have a tough time exchanging with Rozenstruik. Rozenstruik was KO'd quickly by Volkov his last time out so there is a chance someone like Daukaus could get it done here. He has good odds at winning by KO if he does win so his upside is higher than someone like Morono who likely needs to win a decision. | |||||
| Dalcha Lungiambula | 6800 | Edmen Shahbazyan | Risky | +275 | +900 |
| Dalcha will need to survive the early onslaught where he is definitely outgunned by Edmen, but if he does survive, he may be able to turn the tides of the fight. He likely ends up being the lowest-owned fighter, and for good reason, but if he can use his jab to at least control Edmen early he could surprise everyone. | |||||
Sample Lineup
Pivots off Salvador (Fight Is Off): Rosas, Buckley, Silva
Live Dogs
Jan, Gordon, Mitchell, Curtis, Da Silva
Stats and Picks
Jan Blachowicz | vs | Magomed Ankalaev |
$7,000 | DFS Salary | $9,200 |
| Record: 29-9-0 | Record | Record: 18-1-0 |
9 | Knockouts | 9 |
9 | Subs | 0 |
+260 | Vegas Odds | -330 |
Paddy Pimblett | vs | Jared Gordon |
$9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 19-3-0 | Record | Record: 19-5-0 |
9 | Knockouts | 6 |
6 | Subs | 2 |
-205 | Vegas Odds | +185 |
Santiago Ponzinibbio | vs | Alex Morono |
$8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record: 29-6-0 | Record | Record: 22-7-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 15 |
6 | Subs | 6 |
-175 | Vegas Odds | +155 |
Darren Till | vs | Dricus Du Plessis |
$7,400 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
18-4-1 | Record | Record: 17-2-0 |
10 | Knockouts | 7 |
2 | Subs | 9 |
+155 | Vegas Odds | -180 |
Bryce Mitchell | vs | Ilia Topuria |
$7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
| Record: 15-1-0 | Record | Record: 12-0-0 |
0 | Knockouts | 4 |
9 | Subs | 7 |
+130 | Vegas Odds | -155 |
0 | ||
Raul Rosas Jr. | vs | Jay Perrin |
$9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
| Record: 6-0-0 | Record | Record: 10-6-0 |
1 | Knockouts | 2 |
4 | Subs | 4 |
-245 | Vegas Odds | +205 |
Jairzinho Rozenstruik | vs | Chris Daukaus |
$8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record: 12-4-0 | Record | Record: 12-5-0 |
11 | Knockouts | 6 |
0 | Subs | 2 |
-170 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
Edmen Shahbazyan | vs | Dalcha Lungiambula |
$9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
| Record: 11-3-0 | Record | Record: 11-5 |
9 | Knockouts | 5 |
1 | Subs | 1 |
-300 | Vegas Odds | +245 |
Chris Curtis | vs | Joaquin Buckley |
$7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
Record: 29-9 | Record | Record: 15-5-0 |
16 | Knockouts | 11 |
1 | Subs | 0 |
+145 | Vegas Odds | -170 |
Billy Quarantillo | vs | Alexander Hernandez |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
| Record: 16-4-0 | Record | Record: 13-5-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 6 |
5 | Subs | 2 |
-165 | Vegas Odds | +140 |
TJ Brown | vs | Erik Silva |
$7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
| Record: 16-9-0 | Record | Record: 9-1-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 3 |
9 | Subs | 4 |
-110 | Vegas Odds | -110 |
Vinicius Salvador | vs | Daniel Da Silva |
$8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 14-4-0 | Record | Record: 11-4-0 |
| 13 | Knockouts | 5 |
1 | Subs | 6 |
-245 | Vegas Odds | +205 |
Cameron Saaiman | vs | Steven Koslow |
$9,300 | DFS Salary | $6900 |
| Record: 6-0-0 | Record | Record: 6-0-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 0 |
1 | Subs | 6 |
-360 | Vegas Odds | +280 |
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