DFS PGA PLAYBOOK - THE OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP
Published: Jul 20, 2017
Updated With Weekend Lineups!!!
Before we get to the golf, I want to start by congratulating Drew Phelps and his wife on the birth of their son. While Drew takes some much-needed family time, I am thrilled to bring to you the Open Championship PGA DFS Playbook. Hopefully, when he sees who I took as the one-and-done pick this week, he still invites me back the next time he needs a pinch hitter. I’m sure there is no truth to the rumor (that I started) that Drew skipped this Playbook because he didn’t want to have to sort through all of the competing forces at play for The Open.
When he won the U.S. Open, Brooks Koepka became the seventh consecutive first-time major winner. Most of those first-timers have been quite experienced, even though the sport as a whole seems flooded with young players winning at every turn—most recently Bryson DeChambeau at the John Deere Classic.
On the other hand, it has taken experience to win The Open. The average age of the last five winners is 38 years old, and that includes Rory McIlroy winning in 2014. Yet another factor to consider: The Open has been held at Royal Birkdale, this year’s venue, nine times. Of the nine winners, only Ian Baker-Finch is not a World Golf Hall of Famer. That would seem to indicate the winner will likely come from the cream of the crop, and the run of first-time winners could be over.
The problem with that is all of the top players enter the tournament with huge question marks. Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy and Jason Day are coming off back-to-back missed cuts. Henrik Stenson has missed the cut at both of the year’s majors and said basically said he doesn’t think he can contend at The Open based on the way he is playing. Phil Mickelson enters the week without his longtime caddie, without playing in the Scottish Open as he normally does and without his driver. Jordan Spieth has finished better than 30th just once at The Open. Jon Rahm finished 59th at his only Open last year. And yet, nobody would be surprised if any of those players won this tournament.
Royal Birkdale should play tougher than the last few Open Championships, though the weather is not expected to be as punishing as the last time it hosted, in 2008. Padraig Harrington won that edition at +3, and while the winning score will probably be under par this time around, it almost certainly won’t be -20, which is where Henrik Stenson finished last year at Royal Troon.
Birkdale is a par 70, and there will be a premium in hitting the ball low and straight. Par will be a good score on most holes, and if you can mostly stay out of trouble, you will likely be in contention on Sunday.
Post-Cut GPP Lineups:
Zach Johnson $7,700
Gary Woodland $7,400
Steve Stricker $7,600
Justin Rose $9,200
Rickie Fowler $9,500
Matt Kuchar $8,600
Sergio Garcia $9,400
Hideki Matsuyama $9,000
Brooks Koepka $8,900
Gary Woodland $7,400
Webb Simpson $7,300
Daniel Berger $7,700
Pre-Cut DFS PGA PLAYBOOK:
Player | FanDuel | DraftKings | Comments |
Rickie Fowler | $ 9,600 | $ 9,200 | The only drawback is most fantasy players will probably love him as much as I will. Has four top-10s in last five events, including T5 at U.S. Open. Ranks ninth on Tour in Bogey Avoidance |
Brooks Koepka | $ 8,500 | $ 9,000 | Hasn't played since U.S. Open win. Finished 10th in his last Open in 2016. |
Justin Rose | $ 8,700 | $ 10,300 | Finished 23rd or better in each of last three Opens. Ranks 13th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. |
Zach Johnson | $ 6,500 | $ 7,600 | Has made 10 consecutive cuts at The Open, including a win in 2015. Love his price on FanDuel, but worth paying for on DraftKings as well. |
Matt Kuchar | $ 7,500 | $ 7,200 | Kuchar has made five consecutive Open Championship cuts and has finished T16 or better in each of his last five tournaments. |
Adam Scott | $ 8,600 | $ 8,500 | Scott has made the cut at seven consecutive Open Championships and 12 of the last 13. He ranks 16th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. |
Justin Rose | $ 8,700 | $ 10,300 | Rose hasn't missed the cut at two majors in the same year since 2011, and he already missed the U.S. Open cut this year. He has finished T23 or better in the last three Open Championships, and he finished T4 as an amateur in 1998. |
Steve Stricker | $ 6,500 | $ 6,900 | He finished T16 at both majors this season. Ranks 17th in Par 4 Scoring and 18th in Bogey Avoidance. |
Andy Sullivan | $ 6,400 | $ 7,000 | Sullivan has finished 20th and 12th in two tries at the Open Championship. Ranks 33rd on European Tour in Driving Accuracy. |
Hideki Matsuyama | $ 9,000 | $ 9,500 | Ranks seventh on PGA Tour in both Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and Bogey Avoidance. |
Sergio Garcia | $ 9,400 | $ 10,600 | Has finished sixth or better in last three Open Championships. T2 in his last start at BMW International Open. |
Marc Leishman | $ 6,800 | $ 7,800 | Hits it long and straight and doesn't need to take driver off the tee. Ranks 19th in Tee-to-Green and 25th in Par 4 Scoring. |
Gary Woodland | $ 6,000 | $ 6,800 | Another contender every time we're talking about leaving the driver in the bag. Made four straight Open Championship cuts. |
Francesco Molinari | $ 6,900 | $ 7,300 | Has finished T40 or better in five consecutive Opens. Made 11 cuts in last 12 events. |
Webb Simpson | $ 5,600 | $ 6,800 | His stats jump off the page, including ninth on the PGA Tour in Par 4 Scoring. Could be a cheap cut-maker on FanDuel. |
Tony Finau | $ 6,900 | $ 6,800 | Ranks eighth on the PGA Tour in Tee-to-Green, 17th in Par 4 Scoring and 11th in Bogey Avoidance. |
Louis Oosthuizen | $ 7,800 | $ 8,300 | It has been all-or-nothing for Oosthuizen this season and at The Open. T2 in 2015, and if he wins his second Open, would likely join the list of HOFers to win at Birkdale. |
Lee Westwood | $ 7,000 | $ 7,700 | If an old guy keeps the first-time streak going, it's probably Westwood. Has made the cut at nine of the last 11 Open Championships. |
Ian Poulter | $ 6,200 | $ 7,500 | Super cheap on FanDuel. Has made seven consecutive cuts, including a T9 at the Scottish Open last week. |
Bill Haas | $ 6,700 | $ 6,600 | Course should suit him, as he ranks third in Bogey Avoidance. Has made four of last six Open Championship cuts. Finished no worse than T37 in last five tournaments. |
Wesley Bryan | $ 5,200 | $ 6,600 | Ranks 36th in OWGR and is ridiculously cheap on FanDuel. Ranks 77th in SG: Tee-to-Green and 61st in Par 4 Scoring. |
OPTIMAL LINEUPS:
FanDuel Cash | FanDuel GPP | DraftKings Cash | DraftKings GPP | ||||
Zach Johnson | $6,500 | Wesley Bryan | $5,200 | Matt Kuchar | $7,200 | Rickie Fowler | $9,200 |
Sergio Garcia | $9,400 | Ian Poulter | $6,200 | Zach Johnson | $7,600 | Daniel Berger | $6,700 |
Marc Leishman | $6,800 | Brooks Koepka | $8,500 | Adam Scott | $8,500 | Brooks Koepka | $9,000 |
Adam Scott | $8,600 | Justin Rose | $8,700 | Bill Haas | $6,600 | Marc Leishman | $7,800 |
Francesco Molinari | $6,900 | Zach Johnson | $6,500 | Sergio Garcia | $10,600 | Justin Rose | $10,300 |
Webb Simpson | $5,600 | Lee Westwood | $7,000 | Hideki Matsuyama | $9,500 | Andy Sullivan | $7,000 |
Hideki Matsuyama | $9,000 | Louis Oosthuizen | $7,800 | ||||
Steve Stricker | $6,900 | Rickie Fowler | $9,600 | Total | $50,000 | Total | $50,000 |
Total | $59,700 | Total | $59,500 | Remaining | $0 | Remaining | $0 |
Remaining | $300 | Remaining | $500 |
ONE & DONE PLAY:
ONE AND DONE PLAY | FINISH |
SBS - Jimmy Walker | T9 |
Sony - Charles Howell III | T8 |
Career - Bill Haas | T17 |
Farmers - Brandt Snedeker | T9 |
Waste - Brendan Steele | T16 |
Pebble - Phil Mickelson | 65th |
Genesis - J.B Holmes | T34 |
Honda - Graeme McDowell | T14 |
Mexico - Alexander Noren | T55 |
Valspar - Ryan Moore | T18 |
Palmer - Zach Johnson | T66 |
Match - Sergio Garcia | Out of Sweet 16 |
Puerto - David Hearn | T17 |
Shell - Lee Westwood | MC |
Masters - Justin Rose | 2nd |
RBC - Kevin Kisner | T11 |
Valero - Charley Hoffman | T40 |
Wells Fargo - Adam Scott | T36 |
Players - Martin Kaymer | T69 |
Nelson - Dustin Johnson | T13 |
D & D - Pat Perez | MC |
Memorial - Emiliano Grillo | T40 |
St. Jude - Russell Henley | MC |
U.S. Open - Jason Day | MC |
Travelers - Kyle Stanley | T57 |
Quicken - Justin Thomas | MC |
Greenbrier - Webb Simpson | T14 |
John Deere - Johnson Wagner | MC |
Open Championship - Brooks Koepka | ??? |