UFC Fight Night 145: Prague

We’re back overseas this week with UFC Prague. Things are far less predictable for cards like this. Fighters often have fewer fights, therefore fewer stats, Vegas isn’t as dialed in, and things can get weird with so many fighters traveling. Make sure to note that lineups lock at 11:00 AM ET Saturday.

Thiago Santos is violence incarnate. He’s a high paced striker that is solely focused on ending his opponents night quickly. It’s kind of crazy that he’s fighting on an overseas card while a guy he beat, Anthony Smith, is getting a title shot.It’s hard to know what to make of Jan Blachowicz’s 6-4 UFC record. He’s on a solid four-fight win streak, but anytime he’s fought top competition he’s come up short. Blachowicz is solid striker despite a low output. In my opinion, he could lean on his wrestling more, as well.

What a banger this should be. Santos always brings the heat and Blackowicz is no cupcake. I actually think the guy that wins is the first to mix in some wrestling. There will be plenty of mad scrambles, which are opportunities for scoring. Ultimately, I’m picking Santos. Blachowicz has decent ITD odds at a good salary, though. I’d mix in plenty of both in separate lineups.

The only thing Stefan Struve has going for him is being 6’11”. That’s mitigated by a textbook tall guy hole in his striking defense.

Marcos Rogerio de Lima’s move to heavyweight was a success after coming off of a repealed suspension. With an extra camp at the weight, I expect a more comfortable de Lima. He throws with bad intentions.

I’m done with Struve. He can’t beat an opponent with any measurable ability at this point. De Lima doesn’t inspire tons of confidence, but I think he wants this win more than Struve. This one probably comes down to who can avoid letting the other person walk up and punch them right in the face. Expect de Lima to stalk Struve around the cage and wait for an opening.

The UFC is certainly getting mileage out of Gian Villante. He’s an above average athlete that does nothing all that well in MMA. He throws a good amount of inaccurate power shots and has decent wrestling. That also tends to tire him. Opponents don’t have a hard time figuring him out.

Michal Oleksiejczuk has one UFC fight that was overturned due to a failed drug test. It was a good all-around performance against a mediocre opponent in Khalil Rountree. He did a little bit of everything in that fight.

Oleksiejczuk makes some sense here. Villante is tough to finish but easy to hit. Either way that equals points.

If you remember Liz Carmouche’s name it’s because she was on the losing end of the UFCs first ever women’s fight with Ronda Rousey. Carmouche is a wrestler by trade and can score via ground and pound.

Lucie Pudiolva is the lone fighter on home turf in the Czech Republic. Here striking is sharp and she has solid takedown defense. A drop back down to flyweight should help, too. She’s a contender in the division with a few more wins.

We’ve got a classic grappler versus striker here. I feel like too many people are backing the name in Carmouche. She’s obviously a great wrestler and strong as an ox. It’s not like Pudilova has never faced wrestling, though. Plus the losses for Carmouche have mainly come on the feet. If Pudilova keeps thing standing for two out of three rounds she could win this one.

Is it just me, or does John Dodson look completely disinterested in fighting? He couldn’t reach the summit of the division and now he’s just treading top 10 water. His gameplan is to avoid getting hit while scoring on a low amount of strikes.

Petr Yan is making a hard charge up the division ladder. He’s looked miles ahead of the low competition sent his way so far. He’s a total package with good output, accuracy, and wrestling.

Yan is an up-and-comer and probably wins a close decision. Dodson is a tall task with his elite speed, though. At a basement bargain price, he has to be considered. If he does his thing and out points Yan to a boring decision it’s all gravy. I don’t know that Yan can support his price without landing an early KO on a guy that is super tough to finish.

Magomed Ankalaev is the real deal. Ignore his last-second loss to Paul Craig from a hail mary triangle in his Octagon debut. He’s going to put the hands (and feet) to you.

This is Klidson de Abreau’s UFC debut, so we have less to go on. He’s a highly regarded fighter out of Brazil, though. You can see finishes are not an issue for him.

I think Ankalaev learned his lesson in the Craig loss. His Sambo base should allow him to dictate where the fight takes place. If he keeps Abreau at the end of his punches, he wins.

UPDATE: It should also be noted that Klidson Abreau came in at 209, 3 pounds over the limit. Not surprising for someone who's competed at heavyweight.

Dwight Grant reminded us that being a big favorite doesn’t get you an automatic win. The gritty Zak Ottow outworked him to a split decision in his debut. Grant didn’t throw with the same freedom we saw in his DWTNCS win.

Through two UFC appearances, Carlo Pedersoli has been a game opponent. He took an entertaining split decision off of Brad Scott but got thrown in the deep end against Alex Oliveira and got KO’d.

If the Dwight Grant from the contender series show’s up this will be a fun one. There should be good back and forth, with Grant getting the better of it. I’m guessing he’s more comfortable in the Octagon the second time in.

Daniel Teymur has dropped both of his fights in the UFC. He’s probably going to hang around on European cards a little while longer, but I don’t expect much from him barring some on the job development.

Chris Fishgold doesn't waste much time getting after his opponent. Calvin Kattar had his hands full with Fishgold for most of the first round (until a nice KO landed for Kattar). It’s incredibly taxing having to fight someone who goes from strikes to wrestling and back again with no breaks between.

This would be a great fight for the better Teymur brother, David. We have to make due with Daniel here. Fishgold brings a smothering assault. The odds of him earning a submission are high.

The problem with Veronica Macedo is that she doesn’t excel anywhere in her MMA game. She has slightly above average striking, but that’s about it. The UFC seems to want her around, possibly for aesthetics.

Gillian Robertson is only 23 but has been fighting since 18 as an amateur and 20 as a professional. She isn’t shy about attacking with takedowns at 8.5 per 15 minutes and landing 50% of them. She has quality wins over Molly McCann and Emily Whitmire recently, despite dropping her most recent fight to Mayra Silva by armbar.

I don’t get putting Macedo up against a grappler like Robertson after seeing her struggle against wrestling plenty. She’s cannon fodder here. Robertson has a nice shot at hitting value for $8600.

A 2-2 UFC record for Damir Hadzovic could easily be 0-4. He took a split decision and a late come from behind KO to get those two wins. He’s tough if nothing else, and not afraid to mix it up.

Marco Polo Reyes gets after it on the feet. A true Mexican fighter, he lets it all hang out and goes to war. His striking volume is top five in the UFC over a sizeable sample.

There should be plenty of fireworks in this scrap. One of these men is going down early. I lean Reyes along with most folks, but Hadzovic could easily get the better of Polo in an exchange. Roster plenty of this fight where you can fit it.

Michel Prazeres is just such a unit. You don’t get the nickname “Trator” for naught. He can strike with power, but grappling is his go to. Let’s be glad he’s sticking at 170, where the cut is easier for a repeat offender on missed weight.

Late replacement Ismail Naurdiev will be making his UFC debut. He’s got a dynamic striking game with some wrestling to go along with it. He’s fought semi-decent regional competition.

Naurdiev is coming into a tough spot. He could have a future in the Octagon, but he’s chum in the water in this one. His striking gives him a punchers chance, but Prazeres is a force of nature. Trator by submission here. He regularly breaks 100 DK points and he’ll need to at $9400.

Longtime UFC veteran Rustam Khabilov is looking to continue his winning ways. Once an electrifying entertainer, he’s now mellowed into a decision-via-wrestling machine.

Diego Ferreira was a bit of a forgotten man after his two-year drug suspension. He’s won two solid fights since returning, though, and looks to get more people’s attention here. He’s a quality striker with some jiu-jitsu chops.

Ferreira is one of the few dogs I’m interested in. Khabilov should be the favorite but doesn’t interest me that much as someone looking to work towards a decision. Ferreira wants to end fights. A tall task against a fighter with no KO losses and one submission loss, though.

UPDATE: It should be noted that Diego Ferreira came in one pound over and opted to forgo a 20% fine rather than continue the cut. Probably a smart decision.

It was a solid, if unspectacular, UFC debut for Khazikstan’s Damir Ismagulov. He relies on wrestling with select accurate striking opportunities.

Joel Alvarez is coming up from the Spanish regional circuit. Not exactly an MMA hotbed. The scouting report on him is a striker that wants to come forward, but not the best defensive wrestling. He has some submission skills, too.

This probably plays out similarly to Ismagulov’s last fight and he wrestles his way to a decision win. The volume of takedowns and advances will determine if he hits value at $9200. I’m not thrilled with so many unknowns here, but he should be a solid bet.

Cash Plays: Prazeres, Ankalaev, Fishgold, Robertson, Santos, Dodson, Ferreira, Ismagulov

I’m probably not stacking the main event. Blachowicz is tough enough to last a while in a firefight, but I don’t want to count on it. Roster Dodson to unlock a couple big price tags.

GPP Plays: Santos, Fishgold, Ankalaev, Reyes/Hadzovic, Grant, Pudilova, de Lima, Oleksiejczuk

There’s no shortage of potential quick finishes on this card. You should definitely have one fighter from Reyes-Hadzovic and one from Struve-Rogerio de Lima. Santos and Fishgold have great shots at finishes that score well.

Favorite Bets: Santos -110, Grant +130, Robertson -160

Favorite Props: Santos via KO +135, Prazeres via sub -115, Fishgold ITD -130, Dodson via decision +380

Live Dogs: Blachowicz, Pudilova, Dodson, Grant, Ferreira