We’re finally getting some UFC title fights in 2021. Three of them in fact. That will make cash games very interesting strategy-wise. You’ll want to stack or use dogs from Adesanya-Blachowicz or Yan-Sterling to stay up with opponents. There aren’t as many dogs that scream value but PPV cards usually have their share of upsets. We likely see at least one belt change hands. Add in that 15 fights are currently scheduled and it’s a Wild West type night for DFS.
Main Event | ||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds |
Jan Blachowicz vs Israel Adesanya | 7000/9200 | - | Stackability: Safe | 200/ -220 |
The Super Fight no one was clamoring for. It’s at least an interesting clash of sizes with about a 50 lb true weight difference. If Izzy’s wrestling holds up that’s the end of that conversation. Jan is also a tough striking matchup so it’s a better fight on paper than buzz-wise. In the end, Izzy’s too hard to track down and too hard to time. A less than electric decision is likely going his way. Pretty stackable for the chance it goes five. | ||||
Expensive | ||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds |
Amanda Nunes | 9600 | Megan Anderson | Somewhat-Safe | -900 |
An all time great and one of WMMA’s best wrestlers gets a tall striker who has major grappling holes. Should be a slam dunk. Big favorites have been losing at a weird rate but this is as safe as MMA gets. | ||||
Sean Brady | 9300 | Jake Matthews | Somewhat-Safe | -210 |
Brady has dusted the low level competition he’s faced. This is a slight step up as Matthews is at least a great athlete. He’s not great at winning close fight’s, however. A Brady decision is going to fall short without some unforeseen grappling. | ||||
Mario Bautista | 9100 | Trevin Jones | Somewhat-Safe | #N/A |
Bautista is ranked after Brady here based on the higher ceiling lower floor nature he represents. Giles is a bit of a can but still dangerous at times. Good for GPPs, not as good for cash. | ||||
Islam Makhachev | 9400 | Drew Dober | Moderate | -370 |
Makhachev is likely to coast through fifteen minutes of Russian style domination. That’s a weak return on salary. Dober can also be dangerous in both striking and BJJ departments. This one’s a pass for me. | ||||
Mid-Range | ||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds |
Petr Yan | 8400 | Aljamain Sterling | Moderate | -112 |
This should be a frenetic fight. Yan is a wrecking ball once he gets going. Aljo is super slick and may be one of the few in the division faster than Yan. It’s a solid stack in that neither guy is wilting easily, even by sub (which is Aljo’s main out). The wind seems to be blowing Aljo’s way on ownership, so I’m a little more interested in Yan than I would be. | ||||
Casey Kenney | 8100 | Dominick Cruz | Somewhat-Risky | -130 |
Kenney gets his shot at beating a name brand. He should be fast enough and dynamic enough to coral Cruz in the striking. Dom just doesn’t move like he used to. We don’t need a finish here for value but it’s in play. | ||||
Aleksandar Rakic | 8600 | Thiago Santos | Somewhat-Risky | -157 |
Rakic is basically a terminator. If you get caught clean by him it’s lights out. He’s also a decent enough wrestler, something that is a problem for Santos usually. Santos is equally devastating on the other side so don’t feel over confident in either guy. | ||||
Song Yadong | 8800 | Kyler Phillips | Somewhat-Risky | -155 |
Yadong has been moving his way up the ranks with signature wins like his war with Marlon Vera. Anyone that can come out of a dogfight with Vera is legit. Phillips is a better athlete than fighter and that makes him a wildcard, so I’m using a limited amount of Yadong. | ||||
Tim Elliott | 8200 | Jordan Espinosa | Risky | -105 |
You just never know what you’re going to get from Elliott in the Octagon. He can be a wrestling machine but also gas in the process and get merced. Training with James Krause helped last fight, though. Espinosa is a good wrestle and athlete himself so I don’t see this being one of Elliott’s huge nights on DK but it’s always possible. | ||||
Kai Kara-France | 8500 | Rogerio Bontorin | Risky | -135 |
KKF is finally lined appropriately in a fight. That has my interest. He’s probably too slick for Bontorin to use his Taz routine on. KKF can pick away and even has a slight chance for a KO. | ||||
Askar Askarov | 8300 | Joseph Benavidez | Risky | -122 |
Unless Askarov hits a surprise sub he’s facing an uphill battle here. The problem is we don’t know what Joe B has left in the tank after Figgy murdered him twice over. | ||||
Dominick Cruz | 8100 | Dominick Cruz | Risky | 120 |
Cruz has shocked us before, pulling out a win when it seemed long odds. Kenney is a nice young fighter but not a world beater. If Cruz can find some of that old magic and get 90% of his movement back he has a shot. Tough to do after 21 years as a pro, though. | ||||
Pay-Downs | ||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds |
Aljamain Sterling | 7800 | Petr Yan | Somewhat-Risky | 102 |
Aljo is being touted heavily here. He’s hard to hit, electric quick, and has BJJ skills for days. It’s kind of the worst matchup for Yan. The fight should be great. Expect to see Aljo in almost every cash lineup. | ||||
Joseph Benavidez | 7900 | Askar Askarov | Somewhat-Risky | 112 |
We get to find out just how much life Figgy stamped out of Joe B. He should be able to walk all over Askarov based on ability. He may also not remember his middle name at this point. Likely a popular play in both cash and GPP. | ||||
Thiago Santos | 7600 | Aleksandar Rakic | Somewhat-Risky | 147 |
It’s the same most fights with Santos, kill or be killed. That makes for fabulous GPP targets however unpredictable. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if the vet had a lesson to teach Rakic. | ||||
Jordan Espinosa | 8000 | Tim Elliott | Risky | -105 |
If Elliott decides to pull his march forward at all costs routine anyone can have a huge score against him. Espinosa is a better athlete and solid wrestler. That could lead to a KO if it has to stay standing and Elliott runs out of ideas. | ||||
Aalon Cruz | 7300 | Uros Medic | Risky | 152 |
Cruz came into his debut against Spike Carlyle with some hype. He got sparked in a minute. That’ll happen against Spike. We’ll see if Cruz can right the ship against a grizzly but unknown opponent from the Alaska fight scene. | ||||
Drew Dober | 6800 | Islam Makhachev | Risky | 330 |
Dober can drop anyone on the right night. Makhachev wouldn’t be the first prospect to learn this. | ||||
Kyler Phillips | 7400 | Song Yadong | Risky | 145 |
Phillips is a raw product but has promise. It’s surprising to see him take this fight but it would propel him up the rankings. It should be a close, fun fight. He’s a live dog. |
Draftkings Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Amanda Nunes | $9,600 |
Mario Bautista | $9,100 | |
Mid Tier | Aleksandar Rakic | $8,600 |
Petr Yan | $8,400 | |
Value Tier | Joseph Benavidez | $7,900 |
Fanduel Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Amanda Nunes | $23 |
Mario Bautista | $20 | |
Mid Tier | Aljamain Sterling | $17 |
Joseph Benavidez | $15 | |
Value Tier | Aalon Cruz | $10 |
Vegas Plays:
Favorite Bets: Benavidez +110, Kenney -130, Kara-France -135
Favorite Props: Rakic/Santos won’t start round 3 -135
Long Shot: Souza via SUB +1000
Live Dogs: Sterling, Benavidez, Blachowicz, Cruz, Souza, Nzechukwu
Stats & Picks:
Jan Blachowicz | vs | Israel Adesanya |
$7,000 | DFS Salary | $9,200 |
Record: 27-8-0 | Record | Record: 20-0-0 |
8 KO/TKO (30%) | Knockouts | 15 KO/TKO (75%) |
9 SUBMISSIONS (33%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
200 | Vegas Odds | -220 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
Amanda Nunes | vs | Megan Anderson |
$9,600 | DFS Salary | $6,600 |
Record: 20-4-0 | Record | Record: 11-4-0 |
13 KO/TKO (65%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (55%) |
3 SUBMISSIONS (15%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (27%) |
-900 | Vegas Odds | 700 |
9/10 | Lineup Pool | 1/10 |
Petr Yan | vs | Aljamain Sterling |
$8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
Record: 15-1-0 | Record | Record: 19-3-0 |
7 KO/TKO (47%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (11%) |
1 SUBMISSIONS (7%) | Subs | 8 SUBMISSIONS (42%) |
-112 | Vegas Odds | 102 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
Islam Makhachev | vs | Drew Dober |
$9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
Record: 18-1-0 | Record | Record: 23-9-0 (1 NC) |
3 KO/TKO (17%) | Knockouts | 10 KO/TKO (43%) |
7 SUBMISSIONS (39%) | Subs | 6 SUBMISSIONS (26%) |
-370 | Vegas Odds | 330 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Thiago Santos | vs | Aleksandar Rakic |
$7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
Record: 21-8-0 | Record | Record: 13-2-0 |
15 KO/TKO (71%) | Knockouts | 9 KO/TKO (69%) |
1 SUBMISSIONS (5%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (8%) |
147 | Vegas Odds | -157 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool2 | 6/10 |
0 | ||
Dominick Cruz | vs | Casey Kenney |
$8,100 | DFS Salary | $8,100 |
Record: 22-3-0 | Record | Record: 16-2-1 |
7 KO/TKO (32%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (13%) |
1 SUBMISSIONS (5%) | Subs | 5 SUBMISSIONS (31%) |
120 | Vegas Odds | -130 |
3/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
Song Yadong | vs | Kyler Phillips |
$8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
Record: 16-4-1 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 8-1-0 |
6 KO/TKO (38%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (63%) |
3 SUBMISSIONS (19%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (13%) |
-155 | Vegas Odds | 145 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Joseph Benavidez | vs | Askar Askarov |
$7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
Record: 28-7-0 | Record | Record: 12-0-1 |
8 KO/TKO (29%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (25%) |
9 SUBMISSIONS (32%) | Subs | 7 SUBMISSIONS (58%) |
112 | Vegas Odds | -122 |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Rogerio Bontorin | vs | Kai Kara-France |
$7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
Record: 16-2-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 21-9-0 (1 NC) |
3 KO/TKO (19%) | Knockouts | 9 KO/TKO (43%) |
11 SUBMISSIONS (69%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (14%) |
115 | Vegas Odds | -135 |
3/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
Tim Elliott | vs | Jordan Espinosa |
$8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
Record: 17-11-1 | Record | Record: 15-8-0 (1 NC) |
3 KO/TKO (19%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (13%) |
6 SUBMISSIONS (38%) | Subs | 7 SUBMISSIONS (47%) |
-105 | Vegas Odds | -105 |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Kennedy Nzechukwu | vs | Carlos Ulberg |
$7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
Record: 7-1-0 | Record | Record: 5-0-0 |
4 KO/TKO (57%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (67%) |
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
225 | Vegas Odds | -245 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Sean Brady | vs | Jake Matthews |
$9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
Record: 13-0-0 | Record | Record: 17-4-0 |
3 KO/TKO (23%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (24%) |
3 SUBMISSIONS (23%) | Subs | 7 SUBMISSIONS (41%) |
-210 | Vegas Odds | 190 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Livinha Souza | vs | Amanda Lemos |
$7,500 | DFS Salary | $8,700 |
Record: 14-2-0 | Record | Record: 8-1-1 |
2 KO/TKO (14%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (63%) |
8 SUBMISSIONS (57%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (25%) |
200 | Vegas Odds | -240 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Mario Bautista | vs | Trevin Jones |
$9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
Record | ||
Knockouts | ||
Subs | ||
Vegas Odds | ||
7/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
Aalon Cruz | vs | Uros Medic |
$7,300 | DFS Salary | $8,900 |
Record | ||
Knockouts | ||
Subs | ||
Vegas Odds | ||
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |