Toronto Maple Leafs at Boston Bruins
We are set with an Original Six matchup to start off our night of NHL Playoffs and it’s a rivalry we’ve seen a few times in recent seasons. They played each other last season and in 2012, so three times in the last seven years they have faced off in the first round. In the prior two meetings, the Bruins won 4-3 each time. Strap yourself in, we are in for a long and gritty series.
Starting with the Bruins, who come in as -140 home favorites and in for a bit of scoring in this one as the over-under is set at six goals. In all honesty, I see most if not all of these games going one of two ways. Either a higher scoring 5-4, 5-3, type game or the complete opposite with a 2-1 final score. That is what we saw last year with five of the seven games ending with totals at six or higher and the other two both at only four goals. I think we will see it start fast and loose, then tighten up as the series goes on. You want to be targeting Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand, and David Pastrnak on the top forward line and the top power-play unit. There is no doubt they are one of the most expensive stacks on the slate but they have multi-point upside with the best of them. Adding Torey Krug to that stack would be awesome but really just a matter of salary. If you want to save some money, look towards a few players on the third forward line, who are on the second power-play unit. Danton Heinen, Charlie Coyle, Marcus Johansson, and defender Charlie McAvoy.
On the Maple Leafs’ side of things, they are the team we’ve talked about all season long. Auston Matthews, John Tavares, Mitch Marner, and Morgan Rielly comprise the first power-play unit and should be lower owned tonight? Well, it’s tough to say on a three-game slate, but when we have the Bruins, Capitals, and Flames all at home on the slate, we should see those stacks ahead of the Maple Leafs. If you feel like taking a stand on the Maple Leafs tonight thinking they will score a ton of goals, they could prove to be beneficial. The secondary stacks/lines for the Maple Leafs offer plenty of salary relief, but have a much lower expectation when the Bruins have a 37 Corsi Against over the past month.
Carolina Hurricanes at Washington Capitals
The defending Stanley Cup Champions will open up this year’s campaign against the Carolina Hurricanes aka “The Corsi Gods”. We are in for a wild series here, so let’s take a look.
There is one clear thing to be noted here since it’s so glaring. The Capitals have an immense amount of playoff experience compared to a very young Hurricanes team. They say experience can make the difference come the postseason and this looks to be the largest differential you can find this year. For the Capitals, we know what we are getting from them. Led by Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Nicklas Backstrom, T.J. Oshie, and John Carlson. As with the Bruins, this stack can post multiple points in a hurry, but you guessed it, they are very expensive. The secondary options for the Capitals are ones who could go overlooked, but have plenty of upside and aren’t expensive. Lars Eller, Jakub Vrana, and Brett Connolly make up the third forward line and might be my favorite GPP stack of this slate. Love the savings, love the correlation, and you can spend up on the Bruins top stack?
I said the Hurricanes are dubbed the Corsi Gods since they led the league in Corsi For this season, meaning they take a metric ton of shot attempts every game, which can bring a solid floor of fantasy points. Did I love writing and rostering the Hurricanes this season? Yes. Should we look to them tonight? Also, yes. On paper, this is still a good matchup as they come in with an expected Corsi For set at 49.8, which is the highest of any team on the slate. The Capitals defense actually improved in the final month of the season, but they should still be fine to attack. Sebastian Aho leads the way for the Canes, with the elder statesman Justin Williams on his wing, and Nino Niederreiter, who has a bit of playoff experience from his time with the Minnesota Wild. Teuvo “Turbo” Teravainen, Jordan Staal, and Michael Ferland are on the second forward line, who are good and should very low owned. Add Andrei Svechnikov on the second power-play unit if you want the savings. Dougie Hamilton, Jaccob Slavin, Justin Faulk, and Brett Pesce are legit DFS options with the first three on the power-play units.
Colorado Avalanche at Calgary Flames
The final game of the night brings us two Western Conference teams with plenty of firepower up top, but do they have the depth options for some savings?
The Calgary Flames come in with Sean Monahan, Johnny Gaudreau, and Mark Giordano leading the way, which is one of the top three-man stacks we have on this slate. Yes they are expensive, but the multi-point upside is certainly there for them. Elias Lindholm, Matthew Tkachuk, Mikael Backlund, and Michael Frolik round out the second forward line, which can be just as dangerous and comes in just a bit cheaper. The really sneak option is the fourth forward line. Andrew Mangiapane, Derek Ryan, and Garnet Hathaway. Yes, the fourth forward line is legit good and are rated as the number two overall fourth line in hockey, per Corsica Hockey. This is clearly a GPP option only, but in the final five games of the season, they all had two points or more and six shots or more. Solid production for the cheapest players on the team.
On the other side, the big news is that Mikko Rantanen will return to the lineup after missing the last three weeks. He will be on the second forward line and back on the first power-play unit with Nathan MacKinnon and Gabriel Landeskog. They are one of my favorite stacks this season, but really not in the best spot, since they come in with an expected Corsi For set at 42.4 tonight, which is the lowest on the slate. Just don’t love the idea of paying those prices when they don’t have the last line change and in a tough matchup. You can look for some consistency with Tyson Barrie or Erik Johnson on defense, but the Avalanche are truly looking to be the team with the lowest projections on this three game slate.