The 2026 Australian Open starts with a fairly clear picture at the top of both tours. On the men’s side, the market has narrowed to two names who have separated themselves from the rest of the field over the past year. On the women’s side, the hierarchy is less rigid, but the same core questions have shown up in recent years: who can impose their game on hard courts, who holds up in pressure moments, and who actually has a path that doesn’t force constant adjustment.

Melbourne tends to expose players who rely on one solution. The conditions don’t demand perfection, but they do punish hesitation. Players who can play on their terms (whether through serve, early offense, or controlled aggression) tend to separate over two weeks, while those forced into reactive tennis often run into trouble before the final rounds.

That’s where the draw comes into play. Not in a broad “easy half vs. hard half” sense, but in terms of which players are likely to see matchups that pull them out of their comfort zone early and which ones are allowed to lean into what they already do best.

That’s what the picks below are built around. Each bet is tied to a specific advantage, bracket placement, matchup type, timing, or price, rather than a single catch-all narrative applied across the board.

 

 

 

Australian Open Free Picks & Best Bets

ATP Best Bet: Carlos Alcaraz to win the Australian Open (+175)

Alcaraz’s case starts with opponent quality rather than volume. His opening matchup against Adam Walton doesn’t immediately test his return tolerance or force him into uncomfortable patterns, allowing him to settle into the tournament without needing to problem-solve from the first ball.

The more meaningful edge is structural. Sinner and Djokovic are stacked on the opposite half, which thins out the top end of Alcaraz’s section. That doesn’t mean the path is free of danger. De Minaur stands out as a legitimate threat, but it does mean Alcaraz isn’t required to clear multiple title-level opponents just to reach the final weekend.

Alcaraz is at his best when he can build momentum match to match, gradually sharpening his level rather than being forced into early statement performances. His side of the bracket allows for that progression.

At +175, this is a probability bet, not a ceiling bet. Alcaraz doesn’t need home-field advantage, crowd energy, or outside help. He needs to take care of a half that’s set up to let him do exactly that, which makes the number playable.

 

 

 

ATP Dark Horse: Lorenzo Musetti to win the Australian Open (+10000)

Musetti’s appeal is about timing rather than protection. His section doesn’t rush him into high-pace exchanges immediately, which matters for a player whose results tend to improve once he settles into a match rhythm.

Early in the tournament, Musetti is more likely to see opponents who want to construct points rather than overwhelm him with pace. That gives him space to establish variety, mix height and spin, and stay proactive, all things that translate better for him on hard courts than pure defense.

The second week is where the margin narrows, but by then the bet has already done its job. Musetti doesn’t need to be favored deep into the draw. He needs to reach that stage with confidence and enough belief that the number starts working in your favor.

At +10000, this is a long-number bet rooted in sequence and opportunity, not a prediction that Musetti suddenly becomes dominant on hard courts.

 

 

 

WTA Best Bet: Aryna Sabalenka to win the Australian Open (+185)

Sabalenka’s edge comes from matchup profile more than path length. Her section keeps most of the tour’s pure defenders and counterpunchers out of her lane early, allowing her to play through opponents rather than being dragged into reactive patterns.

Her route into the quarterfinals runs through aggressive players who can challenge her timing but don’t consistently turn matches into physical or tactical grinds. Historically, those are the matchups where Sabalenka has been most reliable in Melbourne.

The key for Sabalenka is maintaining clarity. When she’s allowed to swing freely, hold serve with authority, and dictate early in rallies, her margin widens quickly. The draw supports that version of her showing up more often than not.

At +185, this is a bet on Sabalenka controlling matches on her terms. The number reflects the risk, but the matchup landscape gives her a realistic path to the final rounds.

 

 

 

WTA Value Contender: Elena Rybakina to win the Australian Open (+800)

Rybakina’s value comes from how often she can play first-strike tennis in this section of the draw. Her projected opponents don’t consistently neutralize her serve, which keeps points short and lets her control matches without extended exchanges. The draw gives her room to play that version of tennis into the second week, which is enough at this price.

Getting to the final means going through Iga Swiatek, but their H2H is nearly even, which keeps this path realistic. This is a narrower bet than Sabalenka. There’s durability risk baked into the number, and her margin can disappear quickly if timing slips. At +800, the upside justifies the volatility, especially in a field where several contenders carry similar risk without the same number attached.

 

 

 

How to Watch the Australian Open

The Australian Open will be broadcast in the United States on ESPN platforms, with streaming available through ESPN+.

 

2026 Australian Open Odds & Betting Lines via DraftKings Sportsbook

ATP Men’s Singles – Top 5 Futures

  1. Carlos Alcaraz (+175)
  2. Jannik Sinner (+200)
  3. Novak Djokovic (+450)
  4. Alexander Zverev (+800)
  5. Daniil Medvedev (+1200)

WTA Women’s Singles – Top 5 Futures

  1. Aryna Sabalenka (+185)
  2. Iga Swiatek (+300)
  3. Coco Gauff (+450)
  4. Elena Rybakina (+800)
  5. Jessica Pegula (+1200)

 

 

 

When is the Australian Open?

The 2026 Australian Open runs from January 18 through February 1.

 

 

 

How to Bet on the Australian Open at DraftKings Sportsbook and Earn Bonuses

DraftKings Sportsbook offers futures and live betting throughout the tournament, with promotional bonuses available for eligible users.