One of the most exciting and popular non-major events of the year is upon us. The ever-exciting WM Phoenix Open takes place this week in Scottsdale, Arizona, at the legendary TPC Scottsdale. This event is historically the best attended event in professional golf, with an average weekly attendance of over 500,000, and the legendary “Coliseum” hole is a large part of that. The party around the par-3 16th hole is legendary, and this year's iteration looks to be much of the same. Let’s break it down!

 

 

WM Phoenix Open 2025: Daily Fantasy Golf Picks & Projections

The Phoenix Open has been a mainstay on tour since it was first held in 1932 as the Arizona Open. Often referred to as “The Greatest Show on Grass” thanks to its high attendance and legendary 16th hole, we’ve seen fairly consistent winning scores in recent history. Since Phil Mickelson’s record-tying score of -28 in 2013, the winning score has consistently been between -14 and -19, with last year's edition being won at a score of -21 by Nick Taylor in a playoff with Charley Hoffman. 

 

 

 

TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course): Course Breakdown This Week

Finally, after a handful of multi-course events, we get to break down just one course this week. That is none other than the classic venue of TPC Scottsdale. Since its opening in 1986, this course has hosted the Phoenix Open every year since. With TifDwarf Grass on both the fairways and greens, this course hasn’t changed much since its inception. Playing at 7,261 yards and a par of 71, we should see quite a fun weekend of golf. Unlike previous events which were mostly coastal, the desert atmosphere of this course limits the impact of weather. With projected temps of low 80s and almost no rain or wind this week, the course should play pretty straightforward.

At TPC Scottsdale, all 3 of the par 5’s play between 550 and 560 yards. All but one of the Par 4’s plays over 400 yards, with the longest coming in at 490. Lastly, the Par 3’s play between 160 and 192. Since this course has remained pretty consistent in terms of weather and layout over the years and is one of the bigger spectacles on tour, it comes in as the third most predictive course on tour. These yardage buckets are to be considered in our key stats. 

When looking at TPC Scottsdale, the statistics of importance vary compared to previous courses. While some of our classics remain such as Birdies or Better Gained and Bogey Avoidance, one of the key differences of Scottsdale is that putting statistics generally do not matter. The greens play very flat, and very true, so elite putting or green reading is not of much importance this week. While putting doesn’t have major importance, scrambling does, as the dry and flat desert conditions require a different set of skills around the green. Additionally, both driving distance and driving accuracy will come into play this week. When looking at the approach game, as many as 70 percent of approach shots historically fall between 100 and 200 yards. 

Looking at the whole of this event, we will be able to create some unique lineups and take some shots on lower-priced guys who’ve historically played well here, and we do not have to be afraid of bombers who struggle with the flat stick. While high-priced, multiple-time winners like Scottie and Hideki will find themselves in many lineups, I believe that this week you do not need to worry about either paying up or fading these players.. 

 

 

WM Phoenix Open 2025 Field: Golf DFS

This week at TPC Scottsdale, we will see 132 golfers teeing it up, chasing their share of the $9,200,000 purse and 500 FedEx Cup points. Even with the smaller purse, this is a popular event for many players on tour. While we only see Scottie Scheffler and Hideki Matsuyama, both previous winners, plus Wyndham Clark from the top 10, we still see 59 others in the top 100 players in the OWGR. Joining Scottie and Hideki, last year's winner Nick Taylor and previous winners Rickie Fowler, Gary Woodland, and Webb Simpson will be in the field as well. 

While the field is solid, it following the Pebble Beach Pro-Am has caused some elite-level players to back out over the last few years. Viktor Hovland withdrew this weekend during the Pro-Am, being replaced by Paul Waring. In its last year of having a Monday Qualifier, through this avenue we see Steven Fisk, Max McGreevy, and Will Chandler joining the field. While some notable names are skipping, whether due to injury, illness or to fit their schedule, this should still be a strong and exciting field

 

 

This Week’s PGA DFS Optimizer & Lineup Generator

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PGA Best Bets & Predictions: 2025 WM Phoenix Open (5-5 Overall, +4.1 Units)

  • Scottie Scheffler, Hideki Matsuyama, Sam Burns: Top 20 (+380)
  • Brenden Todd: Top 40 (+330) 
  • Billy Horschel or Sahith Theegala: One N' Done Picks of the Week

 

 

 

GOLF DFS PICKS THIS WEEK: Top Tier

Scottie Scheffler ($13,400 FanDuel/$12,000 DraftKings)

Scottie might as well put the “Scott” in Scottsdale. While he missed the cut in his debut here in 2020, his results in his last four appearances are as follows: T7th, Win, Win, T3. Scottie dominates here, and consistently finds his way into contention here. Coming off a T9 finish in his season debut last week at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, Scottie shook off any inclination that he may have some rust. His play at Pebble lines up well here, and I will have many lineups with Scottie in it this weekend. 

Sam Burns ($11,200 FanDuel/$10,000 DraftKings)

Burns makes a debut in this article for me, as my model loves him this week. Burns's ability around the greens as well as his distance off the tee make him a prime candidate for low scores this week. He’s finished T3rd and T6th in his last two appearances here, and his driver and approach games have been a large factor in those results. So far in 2025, he’s been one of the top scramblers on tour as well. His Birdie or Better and Bogey avoidance numbers rank top 10 on tour thus far, and his best approach numbers fall right in the brackets we’re looking at here. Burns will be a nice pivot off Hideki or Scottie if you want a higher-end player without having to surpass his prices.

 

 

GOLF DFS PICKS THIS WEEK: MID-TIER

Sahith Theegala ($10,600 FanDuel/$9,500 DraftKings)

I’m putting my faith in Sahith this week. While the early results haven’t been exactly what we’ve hoped, he’s shown some promise every week particularly with the putter and with still being able to scramble for scores even with bad approach play. Historically, he’s played very well at TPC Scottsdale, having made the cut in all 3 starts and with multiple top 5 finishes. If he can work on limiting the two-way miss he’s had so far in 2025, he can easily find himself in contention this week. 

Jordan Spieth ($10,300 FanDuel/$8,700 DraftKings)

Even with a relatively poor showing in his first event in 6 months at Pebble Beach, I’m sticking with Spieth this week. His biggest issue at Pebble was his putting, where he ranked 70th out of 78 players. That said, his full-swing shots generally looked good, and it didn’t look like the wrist seemed to be as much of an issue as predicted. Once he got comfortable on Sunday, he tied for the best scrambling numbers of the round and finished the day 5th in Total: Strokes Gained and 9th in Strokes Gained: Approach. Spieth’s history is also hard to ignore here, with 5 T9th or better finishes in his 8 starts. He’s a bit more of a boom-bust play here, as he has missed the cut twice, but if you can stomach the risk, the upside is as good as anyone else in the field.

Kurt Kitayama ($10,200 FanDuel/$8,900 DraftKings)

Kitayama has been a streaky golfer in his career. Over the last few years, his putter has been his biggest downfall, but as we’ve established that is less of an issue here. Thus far in 2025, he ranks 13th in Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee, ranks in the top half of tour around the green, and has solid approach numbers in our key brackets. Add in his T8th finish last year, and T23rd finish in 2023, and you can see he makes a great different option in this range if you want a more unique lineup. I think his recent form will force more players off him, so I’m projecting lower rostership of him which could swing things in our favor if he plays to his capability.

Si Woo Kim ($9,300 FanDuel/$8,000 DraftKings)

Si Woo Kim is here largely due to being one of the better drivers of the golf bar on tour in 2025 and over his last 50 rounds. Sitting at 22nd on tour in SG: OTT, he also lands in the top half of both the field and the tour in Proximity to the hole on approach shots as well as scrambling. He’s one of the few players in the field in this price range who ranks top half of the tour in each of our major statistics and has a good course history as well. He’s finished T26th or better in each of his last three starts here, with improvements year over year

 

 

GOLF DFS PICKS THIS WEEK: VALUE TIER

Max Homa ($9,400 FanDuel/$7,300 DraftKings)

Homa, having changed club brands for the first time as a professional, has been quite the mixed bag early in 2025. His numbers off-the-tee and his scrambling has been great, with his scrambling from the rough ranking as high as 4th on tour this year. He’s certainly risky, but if Homa can find some of his former form, where he was as high as 5th in the world, he can shock the world and bounce back to the top of the standings this week. 

Billy Horschel ($8,900 FanDuel/$7,600 DraftKings)

Horschel is a guy who’s not afraid of the spotlight. From being a fan-favorite in his early appearance on the TGL, to his battle-tested game in majors and the Ryder Cup, it’s clear that Horschel does not shy away from the pressure of a course like TPC Scottsdale. Horschel missed the cut at The Sony Open but has bounced back with a T21 finish at the AmEx and a T9 finish this past week at Pebble Beach, so it’s clear he’s found his game. He has just a single missed cut in his 12 career appearances at the Phoenix Open and has 5 finishes in the top 25, and finished as high as T6th in 2022. He’s 50th on tour this year in Stroke Gained: Approach-to-Green, Biirdie or Better Percentage, Par 4 Scoring,  Top 25 in Bogey Avoidance, and Par 5 Scoring, and has favorable numbers in every approach bracket this week. I’m going to be all over Horschel at this price to diversify lineups and have an outside chance at a sneaky good scoring option with high upside per hole as he has the 3rd most eagles this year as well. 

Andrew Novak ($9,000 FanDuel/$7,500 DraftKings)

Novak has been absolutely on fire these past few weeks, with a T13th finish at Pebble Beach at a 3rd place finish at the Farmers Insurance Open. His missed cuts at the AmEx and Sony Open were almost entirely due to putting, which is a far smaller worry this week. He ranks in the top half of the field in SG: Off-the-Tee, Tee-To-Green, Approach-to-Green, and Around-The-Green, and has been absolutely deadly on our key approach buckets where he ranks top 15 on tour and top 10 in our field from 150-170, 125-150, and 50-125. Novak’s game was built for Scottsdale, and his debut here last year proved that when he finished T8th. Novak MAY be my favorite play not named Scottie this week.

Jake Knapp ($7,900 FanDuel/$6,800 DraftKings)

They don’t describe Jake Knapp as having easy power for no reason, and I think that easy power will play very well this week. Knapp finished T28 last year in his Phoenix Open debut, and that’s with his driver largely failing him. His driver has been shaky early in 2025, but Scottsdale gives him the perfect chance to unleash the beast and let it eat. My model doesn’t love him this week, so this is more of a gut call, but I think Knapp can provide sneaky scoring upside this weekend given his good Par 3 and 5 numbers, and I’m willing to take that chance. 

 

 

 

PGA DFS Picks This Week (Cheat Sheet)

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