The American Express 2025 DFS Picks This Week: Predictions, Values & Projections

Published: Jan 15, 2025
After two opening events in Hawaii, the PGA TOUR heads to PGA West in La Quinta, California for the beginning of the West Coast Swing. Not only do we get to see players on the Stadium Course, the Nicklaus Tournament Course, and La Quinta Country Club, but we also see the return of the Pro-Am format, which we have not gotten the pleasure of seeing since 2011.
Make sure to tune in as 156 professionals play with 156 amateurs, and compete for their share of an $8,800,000 prize pool and 500 FedEx Cup points.
The American Express 2025: Daily Fantasy Golf Picks & Projections
As the second full field event of the year, we will be seeing 156 players joining the field, even with a modest purse of only $8,800,000. Much like the first few events of the year, this projected birdie-fest is expected to have a very low scoring winning score. Since the switch from a 5 round event to a 4 round event in 2012, we have not seen a single winning score be higher than 20 under par.
Being a pro-am event, each golfer will be paired with an amateur, so each foursome on the course will consist of two pros and two am’s. They will rotate the course each day, and we will see a 54 hole cut, as opposed to the standard 36 hole cut.
PGA West: Breakdown This Week
As previously stated, this event consists of 3 different courses being used. Each course has a relatively similar set up, with none being longer than 7,200 yards and each of them playing at a par 72. Each course also features dormant overseeded bermuda grass, and all are very scoreable, with more accessible pin locations, slower greens, and reachable par 5’s and short par 4’s.
The Stadium Course, which will be used for the final 18 holes, is the most challenging of the trio. This Pete Dye designs gives shades of TPC Sawgrass, and is also the course that has the largest concentration of water hazards, with this feature coming into play on 7 holes. This course also features the toughest Par 3’s of the weekend, with 3 on the back-nine that make up the 1st, 2nd, and 4th hardest holes at the course.
La Quinta Country Club and the Nicklaus Tournament course are very similar. While these courses lack some of the historical data of The Stadium Course, both of these courses have a better scoring average and share the traits of being much easier to reach on Par 5’s and much more manageable Par 4’s.
At the time of writing, weather looks moderate for this event, with most days hovering around 70 degrees with almost no rain or wind in the forecast. As a result, weather does not look like it will be a factor here.
Given the breakdown of this course, as well as the format, we’re changing up our approach this week. We are not only going to be looking at historical scoring in Pro-Am Events, but given the concentration of reachable Par 4’s and Par 5’s, we’ll be looking more heavily into statistics in this data set, especially in the 350-450 yard range. We will also be looking at Strokes Gained both Around-The-Green, Approach, and Putting. Unsurprisingly, Birdies or Better Percentage will make an appearance here as well, as low scores are required to remain competitive here.
The American Express 2025 Field: Golf DFS
As mentioned, this field will consist of 156 professional players, who qualified through various different factors. Included in the field are 8 of the top 25 OWGR players, last year’s champion Nick Dunlap who became the first amateur in 33 years to win a professional tournament, as well as multiple other winners from previous seasons.
We have seen the field take a hit in recent days as Xander Schauffele, Maverick McNealy, Denny McCarthy, and Seamus Power have all withdrawn. Additionally, with the Hero Dubai Classic going on this weekend as well, we will be without Rory McIlroy, Viktor Hovland, and Tommy Fleetwood.
With a less top heavy field, we’ll be taking a stronger look at some value players, especially with down performance from our pay-up players early on this year. I would advise diversifying your lineups this week with multiple value plays looking like great fits for the format/courses.
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PGA Best Bets & Predictions: 2025 The Sentry Tournament of Champions (2-2 Overall, +0.5 Units)
- J.J. Spaun: Top 20 (+190)
- Henrik Norlander: Top Nordic Golfer (+260)
GOLF DFS PICKS THIS WEEK: Top Tier
Sungjae Im ($12,100 FanDuel/$10,300 DraftKings)
Sungjae is likely going to be the chalkiest pick I make this week, but this is going to be for good reason. Sungjae has appeared in this event 6 times in his career, and has made the cut in each of those seasons. He’s finished as high as T10 in the field and his worst finish (which came last year) was T25.
Coming off a great start to the year with a 3rd place finish at The Sentry where he showed improved ball striking, and finished 10th in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting, he has the typical profile we want to look for here. While does not have a ton of Pro-Am experience, only appearing at Pebble Beach twice in his career, I think I’m going to value the course history here a little more heavily than I would for others.
He also boasts the highest Birdie or Better Conversion Percentage on tour in 2025 (albeit in 1 event), as well as the 18th best in 2024. In a scorers paradise, I’ll take the shot here.
Tony Finau ($11,400 FanDuel/$9,500 DraftKings)
Finau is one of the only other high end golfers I have significant interest in this week. Finau has played this event 7 times in his career, only missing the cut once in 2016. He has finished as high as 4th place here, with his last two finishes being T25 or better.
Finau started the season off well, with a T15 finish at The Sentry, and finished 2024 as the 2nd best player in Strokes Gained: Approach. He’s also found his way with the putter, as he ranks inside the top 5 SG:Around-The-Green over his last 50 rounds and was 16th in SG:Putting at The Sentry.
GOLF DFS PICKS THIS WEEK: MID TIER
Cameron Young ($10,500 FanDuel/$9,000 DraftKings)
Cam Young started the season off hot with a T8 finish at the Sentry, where he finished 5th in SG:Putting and 15th in SG:Total. He’s played this event twice in his career, making the cut both times and finishing T40th and T26th respectively.
The story of Cam Young is pretty straight forward. When the putter is on, he’s arguably a top 25 golfer on tour, and I’m going to take the shot that the slower greens we see this week will allow us to get that Cam Young, as opposed to the 2024 Cam Young who finished 145th on tour in SG:Putting.
Eric Cole ($10,100 FanDuel/$8,100 DraftKings)
Even though my model has loved him this year, I have been hesitant to get behind Eric Cole being in my lineups. After his performance this past week at the Sony Open, I cannot ignore him at this price this week.
Cole ranks above field average in both SG:Approach-to-Green and SG:Putting, as well as in some key scoring statistics such as Par 4 scoring average and Birdie Average. His tee shots have held him back a little this year, but seeing as this course doesn’t really punish you or benefit you in any meaningful way off the tee, Cole will be another staple in my lineups this week at this price.
Christian Bezuidenhout ($9,300 FanDuel/$7,600 DraftKings)
Bezuidenhout is far from a household name, as he has not won on tour since turning pro in 2015, but he should be in consideration for lineups heavily this weekend. Not only has he had success here at PGA West, having finished no worse than T40, and has finishes of T11 and 2nd in his last two appearances here, but he also has had success in Pro-Am events, posting T20 or better finishes in both of his appearances at Pebble Beach.
From my model’s perspective, he has exactly what we’re looking for in players for this event. His Strokes Gained: Approach-to-Green numbers rank in the top 60 on tour, and he finished 2024 20th in Strokes Gained: Putting. He finished top 30 on tour last year in Birdie or Better Percentage on Par 4’s as well. His game is truly built for this event. I will be heavily exposed to Bezuidenhout this week.
GOLF DFS PICKS THIS WEEK: VALUE TIER
Bud Cauley ($9,000 FanDuel/$7,300 DraftKings)
Cauley is coming off a decent start to his 2025, finishing T30 last week in Hawaii. He is yet another golfer here who has the 2024 stats we’re looking for to fill out this card, as he ranked above field average in 4 of the 5 key stats I’m looking at.
While he has not played here since 2020, in his last 5 appearances here he has just 1 missed cut, two T14 finishes, as well as a T4 and 3rd place overall finish.
Mac Meissner ($8,900 FanDuel/$7,400 DraftKings)
While at the higher end of the Value Tier, Meissner is a guy I think is a great value at even this price. Coming off a T21 finish at the Sony Open, Meissner is above field average in most of the major statistics we’re looking at this week, with his key calling card being a SG:Approach-to-Green of 5th on tour.
While he lacks some of the historical performance and pro-am callings cards we want, the style of his game lines up well here, given the shots he loses off the tee are unlikely to hurt him much here.
Michael Kim ($8,700 FanDuel/$7,200 DraftKings)
Kim almost made this article last week for me, and while he struggled in R1 last week, posting a 3 over 73, he bounced back heavily in R2, where he finished -5 and missed the cut by just one stroke after eagling the 9th hole (his 18th).
Looking back on his 2024, his calling card was his performance in the approach game, as well as his putter, where he finished above field average in both statistics. My model ranks Kim highly as well, as he finishes in the top 3rd of the field in each major statistic we’re looking at this week.
Kim could be a great value at this price, especially since he finished T6th here just last year and has a ton of performances under his belt in Pro-Am formats, including 2023 where he finished T11 at Pebble Beach.
Henrik Norlander ($7,800 FanDuel/$6,800 DraftKings)
After his T37 performance last week in Hawaii, I’m going back to the Norlander well here at PGA West. Norlander put up one of his best recent performances off the tee last week, finishing 15th in SG:OTT. While that matters much less here than it did at WCC, his 23rd overall SG:Putting number instills confidence for me at this track.
Norlander also has some historic performances to build off of both at PGA West and via Pro-Am performance, with made cuts in 8 of his last 9 appearances. If he can find the iron game he had here in 2021 where he finished T12, I think Norlander can once again return great value at this price.
PGA DFS Picks This Week (Cheat Sheet)
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