I really did not like last week not only because the results weren’t great, but those events were so hard to predict. You had a round robin match play where you only had a few of the Top 10 players in the world make it to the round of 16. Then you have another alternate event going on in Puntacana with a field full of below average PGA Tour pros mixed with young up and comers. I felt like we were setup to fail.
I’m glad to be done with that week and move onto the Valero Texas Open. While this week is better, it’s not great. TPC San Antonio has played host to this event since 2010 and fun fact, the winner receives a pair of black boots, so there's that. You will notice that none of my stats or results will come before 2010 because of the venue change. This event traditionally was played a few weeks after the Masters but was moved due to the changes in the PGA Tour schedule a few years back. Typically an event the week before a major has a weak field and you don't know who is just using this event to tune up their game and who is in it to win it. A lot of the big names are either resting or heading down to Augusta a week early. A guy like Hideki Matsuyama could be using this event to tune his game up for next week. We’ve also got a large group of players who have not earned a spot in next week’s field and a win this weekend would give them the golden ticket to Augusta.
TPC San Antonio is a sizable course with narrow fairways, deep bunkers and some nasty hazards to avoid. The par 72 reaches out 7,435 yards but the funny thing about the course is that the Par 3's and Par 5's are some of the longest on Tour but the Par 4's are some of the shortest. That make give you a feeling like some of these players could go low on this course but have I mentioned the wind? Gusty conditions can really put these players into terrible positions. In 2015, there were recorded gusts touching 38 mph at times. The forecast calls for winds in the low teens throughout the weekend, so we could see some low scores.
When you look through the history of Top 10's at this course, players with good approach numbers have had greater success. You should also be targeting good scramblers as these players will get themselves into messy situations from missed fairways to deep bunkers and they’ll need to get out of these situations with as little damage done as possible. My lineups will be filled with players who have been playing well recently, scrambling ability and of course, putting skills. We’ve also seen a number of first time PGA Tour winners come from this event, probably due to the weaker field.
Just a reminder that next week is the Masters and as far as my articles are concerned, nothing will change in that schedule. The Best Bets article will come out on Tuesday morning, the PGA DFS Playbook will come out Wednesday morning at 10am ET and my Core Plays will be released that same afternoon at 2:30pm ET. I'll also do my live hit on the Fantasy Alarm show with Howard and Jim at around 7:35pm ET on Wednesday as well.
ONE AND DONE PICK: Scottie Scheffler
GOOD LUCK!
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