Another week on the PGA Tour, another event in beautiful and sunny Florida. Over in Bay Hill, Florida, at the beautiful Bay Hill Club And Lodge, we get one of five invitational events on the PGA Tour, the Arnold Palmer Invitational. As a signature event, our 72 players will be competing for their share of $20,000,000 USD and 700 FedExCup points. Let’s dive in!

 

 

 

Arnold Palmer Invitational 2025: Daily Fantasy Golf Picks & Projections

The Arnold Palmer Invitational has been played since 1979 under various names, and has been a mainstay on tour since it’s inception. 

Named after course owner and legendary player Arnold Palmer, this event not only features a large prize pool, but you also get a classic red cardigan, in remembrance of Palmer which began in the 2017 iteration of the event after his passing in 2016. In 2024, Scottie Scheffler won for the 2nd time here, joining Matt Every, Tiger Woods, and Ernie Els as the only multiple time winners here since 2000. 

 

 

 

Bay Hill Club & Lodge: Course Breakdown This Week

Bay Hill Club and Lodge is exactly what many people picture when they think of a PGA golf course.. Coming in just under 7,500 yards and playing at Par 72, this course is not only legendary but also has been a mainstay on the PGA Tour since 1979. The third most predictive course on the PGA Tour, we can look at the key features of this course and make some solid determinations about how players will perform here. 

Bay Hill consists of your standard array of 4 Par 3s, 10 Par 4s, and 4 Par 5s. Our Par 3s this week all play essentially 200-230 yards, with our 3 of the 4 Par 5s playing over 555 yards. Our Par 4s play between 380 and 480 yards, so these will be some of our key yardages to look at when projecting players this week. Additionally, given the length of the course, there will be a premium this week on both approach and proximity from 200+, given that nearly 30 percent of approach shots come from this distance.

When looking at the key defensive features of the course, the one that we absolutely must talk about is the rough. One of the longest roughs we will see on tour, this is absolutely one of the key defenses of the course. Not only that, but we also have water hazards in play on nine holes. As a result, ball striking will be at a premium this week. 

With Bermudagrass throughout, putting stats on Bermuda will be included again, unsurprisingly, as they are a staple of Florida courses. Much like we saw last week at PGA National, the Florida winds and rain potential will also be factored in. In windier weeks here, the winning scores have been as low as -4 under par, a stark difference in comparison to Scottie’s win here in 2024 at -15. 

Looking at the weather this week, we get a decent picture of what to expect. At the time of writing, we can expect showers on Tuesday and thunderstorms with potential hail and high winds on Wednesday. Wind does look to be relatively calm on Friday and Saturday, but high winds are expected on Thursday and Sunday, with thunderstorms expected early Sunday as well. 

As a result, I’m projecting the winning score to stay in the mid-single digits this year. With that said, some of the additional key stats this week will include SG: Around-The-Green, Scrambling Gained, Bogey Avoidance, and Total Putting with an emphasis on Fast Greens.

 

 

 

Arnold Palmer Invitational 2025 Field: Golf DFS

This week at Bay Hill, we will see 72 of the world’s best teeing it up. Every PGA Tour player in the top 10 of the OWGR will be in attendance with only 6 players in attendance currently ranked outside the top 100, including the lone Amatuer in the field in Jackson Koivun. 

With all of the major players in the field, including Xander Schauffele returning from his injury related absence, lineups will be robust this week. Additionally, through sponsors exemptions this week we will see Justin Rose, Rafael Campos, Mackenzie Hughes, and Min Woo Lee. 

After his win this past weekend at the Cognizant Classic, Joe Highsmith also joins the field and J.J. Spaun will join him, which saw the removal of Lucas Glover and Andrew Novak, who both then requalified. 

Additionally, Jacob Bridgeman and Max McGreevy’s finishes at Cognizant earned them spots in the Aon Swing 5, bumping Nicolai Hojgaard and Joel Dahmen out of the field. Rory and Scottie are the only two previous winners in the field this year, so will we see Rory get number 2 here or Scottie get number 3?

 

 

 

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PGA Best Bets & Predictions: 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational (8-10 Overall, +4.3 Units)

  • Rory McIlroy: Top 5 (+175)
  • Corey Conners: Top Canadian (+230) 
  • Arnold Palmer Invitational One-and-Done Picks: 
    • Rory McIlroy or Ludvig Aberg (high ranked) 
    • Max Homa or Akshay Bhatia (low ranked)

 

 

 

GOLF DFS PICKS THIS WEEK: Top Tier

Rory McIlroy ($12,600 FanDuel/$10,800 DraftKings)

Rory is, hands down, my favorite play of the week. While I feel Scottie may end up with similar ownership, Rory is my preferred choice due to both his recent form and historical success here. At the API, Rory has never finished worse than T27th (back in 2016), and while he finished T21st here last year, that marks the only other finish he has had at this event that wasn’t T13th or better. 

Rory’s recent form has been nothing short of spectacular as well, with only 2 finishes outside the top 15 in a field between the PGA and DP World Tour in his last 10 events. The sole reason Rory finished so “poorly” last year was due to his approach game, but this has been one of his strengths over his last 4 events, and no one is more prepared to win the event this week when considering all factors.

Ludvig Aberg ($11,800 FanDuel/$9,900 DraftKings)

Aberg absolutely has to be one of the favorites this week. In his last start at the Genesis Invitational, he came away with the win but also saw one of the best approach shots gained performances of his career. This will be key as this is what caused him to struggle the most last year at the API. He has back-to-back T25 finishes here, but his current game is in immaculate form here. 

Justin Thomas ($10,900 FanDuel/$9,400 DraftKings)

JT is yet another player who pairs both historical success and current form here wonderfully. Having improved his finish each year at the API, from T49th in his debut all the way up to T12th last year, he’s clearly learned how to play this course more effectively. Additionally, his current form is one of the better stretches of play we’ve seen from him, with top 10 or better finishes in 6 of his last 7 events dating back to the ZOZO Championship. 

While his driver has struggled a bit in 2025, he’s top 10 on tour in avoiding bogeys, converting birdies or betters, and leads our field in Par 4 scoring. He’s 5th on Tour in SG: Approach to Green and while his proximity from 200+ leaves something to be desired, his scrambling and putting have been world-class this year. I have little concern about getting Thomas in lineups as a pay-up option this week.

 

 

 

GOLF DFS PICKS THIS WEEK: MID-TIER

Keegan Bradley ($10,100 FanDuel/$8,400 DraftKings)

Bradley started the year hot with T15th or better finishes in the first 3 events of the year. He’s fallen off a little bit since, given his T65th and T34th at Pebble Beach and the Genesis. The key differentiator is the putting surface. His best scores have come on Bermuda this year, and wouldn’t ya know it, that’s what he gets this week. 

Bradley has 5 T11th or better finishes here in his career, including in 3 of the last 4 seasons. He’s been one of the top 20 players in the world off the tee this year and ranks well in both approach and proximity on approach this year. Bradley is in line to surprise this week, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him in contention come Sunday.

Sungjae Im ($10,600 FanDuel/$8,900 DraftKings)

Every year, almost like clockwork, we see Sungjae struggle just before this event. And every year, like clockwork, his game comes around just in time for the API. In his 6 appearances here, Sungjae has never finished worse than T21st. 

His approach game overall has been poor this year, but he’s in the top 3rd of the tour from 200+ and has been one of the top 20 putters on tour this year. His game lines up well for this course, so it’s not surprising to see him near the top of my model this week. 

Will Zalatoris ($10,500 FanDuel/$8,600 DraftKings)

One of the streakiest golfers on tour, I’m going to take the bet that we’re on a good streak. Zalatoris has finished T26th or better in 4 of his 5 events between the PGA and DP World Tour this year, and his issue (unsurprisingly) has been his putter. 

However, his historical success on Bermuda is something I’m taking into consideration, especially considering his success on it earlier this year. If Zalatoris can keep that success rolling, his off the tee, approach, and scrambling play can work him back into contention, much like he was last year when he finished T4th.

Matt Fitzpatrick ($10,000 FanDuel/$7,700 DraftKings)

Fitzpatrick has been a bit disappointing this year, with multiple finishes outside the Top 40 this year, as well as a missed cut. However, this is an event he almost always plays well at. Outside of his missed cut here last year, he rattled off 5 straight finishes between T14th and 2nd place overall. 

This play is more historically based than current form based, but given the predictiveness of this course, I’m willing to make this bet. I won’t be playing him as much on FanDuel given his price tag, but the discount we’re getting on DraftKings will likely be too good to pass up.

 

 

 

GOLF DFS PICKS THIS WEEK: VALUE TIER

Max Homa ($8,000 FanDuel/$6,300 DraftKings)

Let’s be honest; Homa has not been good in 2025. He’s only made the cut twice in 5 starts on tour, with his best finish being T26th at the Sentry (on, you guessed it, Bermuda greens). This play, much like Fitzpatrick, is more based on historical play. Homa, whether his game has been good or bad, has always shined here. 

With 5 career starts here, he has 5 finishes of T25th or better here, with a T8th finish coming last year. This was tied for his 2nd highest finish of the year last year, so even when he was struggling then, he found a way to perform here. When his game is on, he’s a fringe top-10 player on tour, but even when it isn’t, he’s a fringe top 20 player here. At this cost, I think that’s worth this risk.

Harris English ($8,000 FanDuel/$6,600 DraftKings)

He won earlier this year at the Farmers and is coming off a T24th finish in his last start at the Genesis Invitational. It’s clear that English is back to his old competitive ways. The API is a historically good event for him, with finishes of T26th or better in 5 of his last 6 appearances here, with a T2nd and T21st finish in his last two starts. 

His game this year has been heavily carried by his putting, where he ranks 8th in Strokes Gained. But while other parts of his game have been lacking, his scrambling has also been a strength, as he currently ranks in the top 25% of players in this metric. He’s a bit riskier than others, but I like taking risks in small field events, and this could be a play to differentiate your lineup.

Corey Conners ($9,600 FanDuel/$7,800 DraftKings)

Corey Conners is yet another player in the field that putts well on Bermuda and has historical success here. It should be no surprise that he’s a play for me. He’s finished T21st or better in each of his last 4 starts here and is coming off a T24th finish at the Genesis. 

He’s been solid off the tee (68th in SG), is leading ALL tour players in Approach from 200+, and is top 20 in proximity on approach this year. Conners may not win it all, but he’s a solid bet to make waves this week regardless.

 

 

 

PGA DFS Picks This Week (Cheat Sheet)

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