The PGA Tour heads to the Monterey Peninsula this week for the first Signature Event of the 2026 season: the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. With a condensed field of 80 players and no cut, the dynamic of the prediction market shifts significantly compared to standard full-field events.

The tournament begins Thursday, February 12, featuring a rotation between Pebble Beach Golf Links and Spyglass Hill for the first two rounds, before the field consolidates at Pebble Beach for the weekend. With the "Amateur" portion only lasting two days and the weather forecast calling for potential coastal winds, volatility is the keyword for this week’s slate.

Top DraftKings Prediction Market PGA Picks for This Week

Rory McIlroy 

The defending champion enters the week as the clear favorite in the prediction market, and for good reason. McIlroy captured the 2025 title in dominant fashion and arrives fresh, making his 2026 PGA Tour debut after a successful stint on the DP World Tour. His ability to overpower the par-5s at Pebble Beach, combined with his comfort on Poa Annua greens (evidenced by his win here last year), makes him the safest "Yes" prediction for a podium finish.

Scottie Scheffler

Scheffler is coming off a gritty T3 finish at the WM Phoenix Open, where he rallied from a slow start with elite ball-striking over the weekend. While Poa Annua putting surfaces can sometimes neutralize his tee-to-green advantage, his iron play remains in a league of its own. In a no-cut event where one bad round won't send him home, Scheffler’s high floor makes him a staple for  prediction portfolios.

 

 

 

Best Value Plays on the DraftKings Prediction Market Board

Justin Rose

Justin Rose is currently offering immense value following his resurgent victory at the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines just two weeks ago. The 45-year-old veteran decimated the field there with a seven-shot win, proving his game is perfectly dialed in for California coastal golf. As a former winner of this event (2023) and a master of difficult Poa greens, Rose is mispriced in many markets relative to his current form.

Si Woo Kim 

If you are looking for consistency, Si Woo Kim is the "Yes" play of the week. Kim has rattled off 11 consecutive top-25 finishes dating back to last season, including a strong run of T11-T6-T2-T3 to start 2026. His ball-striking has been surgical, and he has cracked the code on these greens with top-15 finishes in his last two trips to Pebble Beach.

 

 

 

High-Confidence PGA Predictions Based on Recent Performance

Daniel Berger 

After battling injuries in previous seasons, Daniel Berger looked sharp with a T16 finish in Scottsdale last week, where he led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach. Berger is a past champion at Pebble Beach (2021) and thrives on shorter, technical tracks where wind management and iron precision outweigh raw distance. His arrow is pointing firmly up.

Tommy Fleetwood – Top 10 Finish

Fleetwood is making his U.S. season debut, but historically plays well on coastal tracks that demand creativity. As the reigning FedEx Cup champion (2025), his pedigree is undeniable. The market may be slightly sleeping on him due to the "rust" factor, but his game fits Pebble Beach perfectly, and he’s a strong candidate to contend immediately.

 

 

 

Riskier Picks with High Upside

Jake Knapp

Knapp is a high-variance play who could pay off massively in "Winner" or "Top 10" markets. He ranks near the top of the tour in putting inside 10 feet to start 2026, a critical skill on Pebble’s bumpy greens. While his lack of experience compared to the field makes him risky, his putting stats suggest he can go low enough to break the slate.

Shane Lowry

The runner-up to McIlroy last year, Lowry loves playing in tough conditions. If the wind picks up off the Pacific, Lowry’s stock rises exponentially. He’s currently listed at longer odds (+5000 range), presenting a high-upside opportunity for those betting on a chaotic weather week.

 

 

 

How to Approach DraftKings Prediction Markets for Pebble Beach

  1. Embrace the "No Cut" Safety Net: With all 80 players guaranteed 72 holes (barring withdrawal), you can be more aggressive with "Birdie Streak" or "Round Score" predictions for volatile players, knowing they won't be eliminated on Friday.
  2. Monitor the Course Rotation: Remember that Spyglass Hill statistically plays harder than Pebble Beach. When looking at "Round 1 Score" markets, favor players starting at Pebble Beach, which typically yields more birdies and eagles (especially on the par-5s).
  3. Respect the Poa: "Strokes Gained: Putting" numbers from Florida or Arizona (Bermuda/Bent) often don't travel to the West Coast. Prioritize players like Justin Rose or Max Homa who historically putt above their baseline on West Coast Poa Annua surfaces.