It’s NFL Week 5 and you can already feel the tension mounting in survivor pools all over the place. We saw a huge upset of the Green Bay Packers two weeks ago and last week the San Francisco 49ers took a big hit. Now everyone is scrambling to avoid this week’s big upset. Remember, the best survivor pool strategy isn’t simply about picking the biggest favorite each week; it’s about understanding matchups, managing risk, and planning several weeks ahead. Everyone is looking to avoid early elimination, so identifying the best survivor pool strategy can be the key to outlasting the competition and claiming the prize. In this article we'll take you through our process to help you make the most sensible picks to advance to next week and beyond.

 

 

 

Best NFL Survivor Pool Strategy for 2025 NFL Week 5

The best survivor pool strategy for most weeks revolves around the "chalky" plays. You know – the reliable favorites that are heavily favored but not overexposed in most pools. For NFL Week 5, the premium example is the Detroit Lions who are a 10.5-pont favorite over the Cincinnati Bengals who were just victimized on Monday Night Football by another pick of ours, the Denver Broncos. However, the Lions are on the road here and we know that taking home teams is part of our early-season criteria. Do we still take them? Fortunately, our friends over at Pool Genius point out, while the Lions have high win odds of 84-percent, they are also popular with the public – a rate of 21-percent. Combined, that means they have high current-week expected value. They also have moderately high future value (2.9), but on balance using them now is a good option. Should we?

Dominate Your Survivor Pool with Pool Genius

Back in Week 3, you got a great introduction to Pool Genius and everything they have to offer. If this is your first time hearing about them, please allow me to show you the way, because they have some exciting tools to help you make the right picks. What happens is, you load in all the information about your pool – how many total participants, cost per entry, specific rules to your pool regarding things like repeat picks or buybacks and since we are already here in Week 5, who you’ve taken so far. From there, they analyze all the data and make suggestions as to who to take, so it is a VERY personalized service.

To continue guiding you, I am doing using all the tools Pool Genius has to offer and making one of my picks based solely off their data and recommendations. Last week we used Seattle based off their recommendations and advanced. I have now used Washington, Dallas and Seattle. Now the question I have to ask myself is this, “If I don’t take Detroit, who am I going to take this week?”

My Pool Genius recommendations are as follows:

  1. Los Angeles Rams (vs. San Francisco 49ers, 5% popularity)
  2. Detroit Lions (at Cincinnati Bengals, 21% popularity)
  3. Indianapolis Colts (vs. Las Vegas, 20% popularity)

Because this isn’t my only pick in this pool, I figured it would also be helpful to note that they also recommended the following two teams for my other picks:

  1. Arizona Cardinals (vs. Tennessee Titans, 28% popularity)
  2. Minnesota Vikings (at Cleveland Browns (in London), 3% popularity)

One thing to note that the Pool Genius data is telling me is that, outside of Detroit, none of the other selections have a strong Future Value, so I might be looking in a different direction and hold the Lions. I am going to rule out Minnesota because I don’t want anything to do with the games in Europe and there’s also a piece of me leery of the Lions being on the road. The last road team with a “smash” match-up was the Packers in Week 3 and we all know how that went. Dare I invest in a Thursday night divisional game? Or should I pivot to a team like the Colts who seem fairly secure?

Now before I get to my favorite picks to use, I do want to remind you that Pool Genius is a paid service, but for the Fantasy Alarm #Family, they have some discounts available to you. The data and service they provide has been fantastic thus far and I feel confident using their suggestions. 

Now let’s get to my three favorite options for NFL Week 5:

 

 

 

NFL Survivor Pool Picks for Week 5

Detroit Lions vs. Cincinnati Bengals: Pick Detroit Lions

Like our friends over at Pool Genius have said, the Lions are going to also be a very popular pick this week even if it is a road game. They have the largest point spread on the slate at 10.5 and the Bengals, with Jake Browning under center, seem to be a hot mess. The Lions defense can contain Chase Brown in the ground game and while cornerback Terrion Arnold is a liability, the still have D.J. Reed likely shadowing Ja'Marr Chase. Tee Higgins could have himself a nice outing, but is that enough for the Bengals?

The Lions offense is likely to hammer the Bengals defensive line with a punishing rushing attack. Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery will work in tandem to establish the run and open things up for the passing game. The Bengals secondary is pretty sketchy, so Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams should have little trouble finding success. This pick seems like a no-brainer for this week. I’m just not sure I want to burn the Lions with this pick in particular.

Las Vegas Raiders vs Indianapolis Colts: Pick Indianapolis Colts

The Colts are a strong home-favorite by a touchdown and, according to Pool Genius have a 73-percent win odds. Daniel Jones has been a revelation for this team and Michael Puttman has been everything you want in a No. 1 wide receiver. But the bread and butter for this offense is Jonathan Taylor and considering the Raiders are allowing over 104 rushing yards per game and have given up four rushing touchdowns, you know the lead will be with Taylor.

The Raiders have decent weapons of their own in Brock Bowers, Ashton Jeanty and Jakobi Meyers, but Geno Smith at the helm makes them tough to love or rely on. Obviously, anything can happen in the NFL but the Colts as a -300 moneyline favorite seems reassuring. The only thing that Pool Genius points out that we need to consider is that the Colts play a horrible Tennessee Titans team in Week 8, so do we want to give that up? 

 

 

 

Tennessee Titans vs. Arizona Cardinals: Pick Arizona Cardinals

The Titans are terrible and the trave to Arizona, who sit as a 7.5-point favorite has me really leaning into this game. The Cardinals also don’t have a high Future Value either, so just like we did with them in the first two weeks of the season, it might just be wise to get in now while the going’s good. The only pause I may have here is the loss of Trey Benson who landed on IR with a knee injury. They have Michael Carter and Emari Demercado, but their lack of real playing time does make me nervous.

But in reality, the Titans don’t scare me here on the road. Their offensive line is a disaster and rookie Cam Ward has limited weapons because Calvin Ridley can’t catch the football. They could try to run hard with Tony Pollard and a returning Tyjae Spears, but that might not be enough firepower.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angels Rams: Pick Los Angeles Rams

This might be the pick for me to make here. The 49ers may be without Brock Purdy again while neither Ricky Pearsall nor Jauan Jennings have practiced this week. I don’t mind Mac Jones and he’ll have Christian McCaffrey and Demarcus Robinson who finds himself in a revenge-game narrative, but this Rams front-seven is strong and Sean McVay knows how to scheme against Kyle Shanahan.

The key for me is the Rams offense. The 49ers defense just isn’t what it used to be and trying to contain Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua and Davante Adams might be an exercise in futility. The folks at Pool Genius say this game only has a five-percent popularity, but they also give the Rams a 74-percent chance of winning this one. Future value is also not high so maybe now is the time while the 49ers are battered and bruised.

These are the picks in my order of preference this week. Best of luck to you all in your survivor pool contests.