Last season was the year of the running back, and if we’ve learned anything about the fantasy football community over the years, it’s that what we witnessed last year will be chased this year. Even just a cursory glance at the current fantasy football ADP will show you that 10 running backs are taken off the board inside the first two rounds, with another 10 coming off over the next three. Twenty picks out of the first 60 is a significant increase from what we witnessed over the last two seasons, especially in an era of split-backfields.

It may be an old-school mentality, but I have always been in the camp of a heavy lean on the position in fantasy football drafts, and it has served me well. This year, folks should get a little more help, as you still have a massive zero-RB contingency as well as more overall depth at the position. Believe it or not, you’re getting some massive value as early as Rounds 3-5. 

But let’s focus on my top five.

 

Top 5 Fantasy Football Running Backs

Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons

After a rookie season in which he was held captive by Arthur Smith and a terrible offensive game plan, Bijan was finally unshackled and did not disappoint, rushing for 1,456 yards with 14 touchdowns and catching 61 passes for another 431 yards and one score. He finished the season with a 75-percent snap-share thanks to some early efforts to manage his workload, but from Week 9 to the end of the season, his performance pushed Tyler Allgeier aside, and he owned a snap share of just over 81 percent. Now in Year 2 of Zac Robinson’s offensive scheme, we are expecting even more from Robinson. Tough to ask for more than what he’s provided, but it’s definitely in him to beat last year’s numbers as a focal point of this offense. People might be surprised to see him ranked above Saquon Barkley, but age, mileage, and healthy knees all play a factor.

 

 

 

Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles

After the season we witnessed last year, it’s almost unfathomable to have Barkley ranked anywhere but No. 1, but while the skill-set is off-the-charts amazing, I have always been of the mind that, typically, players coming off a career-year have nowhere to go but down. Could Barkley rush for another 2,000 yards and 13 touchdowns? Sure. It’s not out of the realm of possibility, especially when you see someone like Derrick Henry rush for almost 2,000 yards in his age-30 season. But if I had to play devil’s advocate here, I have to point out that 345 regular-season rush attempts are 50 more than he had in any year, and an additional 141 carries in the playoffs took some serious tread off the tires. 

But I also don’t expect him to see the same number of attempts this year because of changes made to the Eagles' defense. Last year, the Eagles' defense ranked first overall in DVOA and did a fantastic job of keeping the opposition down. That enabled the Eagles to simply hand the ball off to Barkley and let him chew up the clock as they closed out each win. That defense lost a lot of veterans in the offseason, and while defensive coordinator Vic Fangio is a wizard, there are going to be plenty of growing pains, and I see several games on their schedule that could turn into shootouts. Barkley is a bona-fide stud and, of course, arguments for him being the unequivocal No. 1 are valid, but I try to focus on what I expect to see this year rather than just what I saw last year. 

 

 

 

Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions

There’s so much to love about Gibbs and what he brings to the fantasy table. His overall skill set is featured in a run-first scheme, and last year, he finished fourth in regular-season rushing yards (1,412), first in rushing touchdowns (16), third in yards per carry among running backs with at least 100 attempts (5.6), and sixth in 100-yard games (5). He also ranked sixth in running back receptions (52), third in receiving yards (497), and fourth in receiving touchdowns (3). Even with the change at offensive coordinator, he is expected to be front-and-center each week. But, the obvious knock is that he still shares the backfield with David Montgomery. The split is roughly 60-40, but finished more like 70-30 last year with Montgomery’s injury. Dan Campbell wants new offensive coordinator John Morton to maintain the current scheme, so we can probably expect more of the same this year.

 

 

 

Christian McCaffrey, San Francsico 49ers

He’s a very polarizing player at this point in time. I’m in the middle of a best ball draft for DoGoodFantasy.com, and he fell to me at the 2.06 (RB7 – 18th overall), but then I just did a broadcast for The Fantasy Championship high-stakes draft and watched him come off the board at the 1.05 (RB4). Those who draft him understand the risk involved, but also understand the massive ceiling he still possesses in this 49ers offense. There was a two-year stretch in Carolina (2020-21) where he played a total of just 10 games, and he missed all but four last year, sinking the fantasy ships of many. But he played 17 games in 2022 and 16 in 2023, a two-year run in which he averaged 1,300 rushing yards, 11 rushing touchdowns, 76 receptions, 653 receiving yards, and six receiving touchdowns per season.

He remains the focal point in this offense and, barring injury, there is no evidence to doubt it. Will they try to manage his workload? Maybe a little. But let’s also not forget that this offense just lost Deebo Samuel, who played a “wide-back” role, and McCaffrey will be relied upon to fill the gap on any lost rushing attempts or receptions. Their receiving corps also is not at the level it once was, while we await the status of Brandon Aiyuk’s recovery from a torn ACL. Personally, I like to draft as an injury agnostic. Do I maybe consider the injury history as a tiebreaker? Sure, but his upside is so beyond even those who go around him at his current fantasy football ADP. 

 

 

 

Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts

Sometimes I just want to shout out my love for Taylor from the rooftops, but then again, I am absolutely elated over where I have been getting him in recent drafts. Phenomenal rookie campaign followed up by a 1,800-yard, 18-touchdown season. Then there were injuries and a holdout/suspension, but he returned last year for over 1,400 yards and another 11 touchdowns. If I can have close to what he did last year at this insane 24.3 ADP, then I am beyond winning. 

The one knock we keep hearing is how Anthony Richardson is poaching goal-line carries. Was that really a concern, based on what we saw last year? No. If anything, Richardson’s presence helps Taylor in RPO work because his mobility forces defenses to focus on him more and affords Taylor wider rushing lanes. And there’s not even a guarantee that Richardson even holds down the starting job anymore. If Daniel Jones is under center, oh baby! Sure, he’s got some mobility and could also potentially steal a few touchdowns, but his ability to pass the ball is going to help open up the ground game overall. Let everyone take an unproven Ashton Jeanty or an inconsistent De’Von Achane before him. You’ll be much better off here.