Two weeks in the books of the 2022 NFL season, and the season is flying by too fast. Slow down! However, many fantasy football managers likely don’t want to see rookie wideout Garrett Wilson or star running back Nick Chubb slow down when their team has the ball in the red zone. Listen, the red zone is arguably the most important area on the field, and opportunities here are the money touches. When it comes to big plays, those can be a bit more unpredictable, but if you’re looking at projecting a player’s floor for touchdowns, or overall fantasy value, their usage in the red zone can give you a good indication there. From red zone passing to rushing, to receiving, we’ll take a look at some notable numbers from the first two weeks of the season that can help your fantasy football teams the rest of the way. Using the Red Zone Report here at Fantasy Alarm, here are the key numbers and notes in this week’s red zone analysis.

 

 

NFL Red Zone Passing for Week 2

Carson Wentz, WAS 

Much like you’ll read with Russell Wilson below, the opportunity for Wentz in the red zone has been massive! Antonio Gibson has four red zone rushing attempts, whereas Wentz has one rushing attempt and nine passing attempts. He’s been incredibly effective, going 7-for-9 in the red zone with four touchdowns, and again, they are putting the football in his hands in the red zone. The emergence of Jahan Dotson and the bounceback of Curtis Samuel has certainly helped Wentz, who has put up 300+ yards and at least three scores in each of the first two games. I don’t want to be a hater, but with early matchups against Jacksonville and Detroit, the Philadelphia secondary will pose Wentz’s first legitimate test in this revenge game, so let’s see what Wentz can really do.

Russell Wilson, DEN 

Alright, so depending if you are a natural optimist or pessimist will determine how you want to view Russell Wilson’s red zone numbers this year. A pessimist will say that 8-for-18 with zero touchdowns in the red zone isn’t good, and 4-for-12 inside the 10, in particular, is even worse. However, an optimist will see the fact that in the red zone, Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon have a combined four carries. Denver has been rather pass-happy in the red zone, and while I expect there to be some regression to the mean in terms of the team’s pass/run splits, one would have to expect that Wilson will improve with all of his weapons in Denver.

Joe Flacco, NYJ 

Just as we all expected, after two weeks of the NFL season, the league leader in red zone passing attempts is none other than New York Jets’ interim starter Joe Flacco. The results for Flacco in the red zone has a bit of a mixed bag, in that he’s completed just 45 percent of his red zone attempts (9-for-20), but he does have four touchdowns. Inside the 10-yard line, he’s 5-for-12 with three touchdowns. The Week 2 emergence of Garrett Wilson is something to note, and something that will be discussed later on in this article, but I’m sure fantasy football managers that invested in Elijah Moore are ready for Zach Wilson to return to action because Moore’s rapport with Wilson seems to be greater than with Flacco. 
Red Zone Rushing

Baker Mayfield, CAR 

You have to appreciate that from a fantasy perspective, Baker understands that he isn’t moving the needle with his arm, so he’s trying to do some extra stuff with his legs to increase his fantasy output. Mayfield has as many red zone rushing attempts as Christian McCaffery, and when Mayfield doesn’t run the ball in the red zone, he’s been bad through the air, completing just 40 percent of his attempts. Listen, McCaffery is going to get his, regardless of whether the touches are in the red zone or not, but this comes down to Mayfield moving the offense. Through two games, he’s completed just 53.6 percent of his passes with a 2:1 TD/INT ratio and a 79.5 QBR. He can run in the red zone all he wants, but he’s not useful in fantasy formats, especially this weekend against New Orleans.

NFL Red Zone Rushing for Week 2

Nick Chubb, CLE 

Finally, Chubb made it happen last week in the touchdown department! Chubb needs to get the ball in the red zone, and what happened in Week 2 should continue to happen. Through two weeks of the season, Chubb has eight carries for 43 yards in the red zone, whereas Kareem Hunt has six carries for just seven yards! Furthermore, Chubb has 83 percent of the team’s attempts inside the 10-yard line, and both carries inside the five-yard line. Hunt isn’t going anywhere, we know that, but if Cleveland continues to commit to Chubb in the red zone, his fantasy value is through the roof, regardless of whether your league is PPR or not. Also, in the red zone, Chubb has eight carries, Hunt has six, and Jacoby Brissett is just 3-for-9 through the air. Yeah, they’ll keep pounding the rock where it matters most.

Miles Sanders, PHI 

When your team has a rushing quarterback, this is going to be something with which they have to deal. However, it’s a bit deeper than that. While he’s firmly in place as the second rusher in the red zone, I’d rather it just be Hurts that steals red zone work from Sanders, not Gainwell and Scott getting involved a bit as well.

Player

Att

TD

%Rush

Att <10

%Rush <10

Att <5

%Rush <5

Jalen Hurts

5

2

45%

4

40%

3

42%

Miles Sanders

3

1

27%

3

30%

2

28%

Kenneth Gainwell

2

1

18%

2

20%

1

14%

Boston Scott

1

1

9%

1

10%

1

14%

I still really like Sanders, and I can’t say I’m overly surprised by this, but we’ll continue to monitor this moving forward.
 

Red Zone Receiving

Garrett Wilson, NYJ 

Wilson has been the beneficiary of the Jets being rather pass-happy in the red zone, as you read above with Joe Flacco. However, we can’t just undermine what the rookie standout has done, and the rapport he’s built with Flacco in such a short time. Wilson has eight targets in the red zone this year, which is the most in the National Football League, and he’s commanded a 44% target share inside the 20s. Wilson is a stud, there’s just no other way around it, but there’s a legitimate question as to whether or not he will maintain that when Zach Wilson returns. He’ll continue to get his targets, but I think the people most excited for Wilson’s return will be fantasy football managers who roster Elijah Moore. However, this sort of red zone usage will help elevate Wilson’s fantasy floor.

Zach Ertz, ARI 

With no DeAndre Hopkins, as expected, it’s been the Zach Ertz and Marquise Brown show in the end zone, you know, when Arizona gets there. Ertz leads the team in red zone targets, as well as targets inside the 10-yard line, but on five red zone targets, he has just one catch for six yards and a score to show for it. I wrote about it in a player debate in the preseason, that I am worried about Ertz’s production upon DeAndre Hopkins’ return from his six-game suspension. If he were to get considerable work in the red zone moving forward, that could help his availability to remain in the mid-to-low end TE1 range, but I expect Hopkins to immediately return to the team’s alpha at all parts of the field. Ertz is a guy I’m looking to trade away sooner rather than later if possible.

Jaylen Waddle, MIA 

The question of Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle will be asked every game for the entire season. However, while that question may be a bit of a guessing game and matchup dependent, one thing is for sure: Waddle has Tua Tagovailoa’s eyes in the red zone. Waddle has a 36 percent target share in the red zone this season, and a 50 percent target share inside the 10-yard line! Tyreek Hill has yet to see a red zone target this season, and while that won’t continue all season, I’m confident that Waddle is Tua’s WR1 in the red zone.

Demarcus Robinson, BAL 

Devin Duvernay missed some practice time during the week, and we saw last week that Robinson has a role in the red zone. In fact, Robinson leads the Ravens in red zone targets this season, and if Duvernay misses this game, he could see an expanded role outside the 20s. Robinson has had a quiet start to the year, but he did score last week, and he could see more snaps in Week 3 compared to past weeks depending on Duvernay’s availability.

 

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