The 2024-25 season is hitting its stride, which means we have a solid sample size of trends, stats and systems analysis to be able to find some betting value in NFL Week 5.

Below are my NFL Week 5 picks straight up, odds for all 13 games Sunday and Monday, plus my two favorite spread picks and predictions. While I've predicted the outright winners of all games, I've broken out the straight-up picks that present betting value.

 

 

 

Remember: the goal of this article is to help us all walk away with a winning, profitable weekend. If we technically lose more straight up picks than we win, but build our bankroll overall by backing the best betting value, than we'll be happy. This is how you can become a more consistent, winning bettor.

No matter which bets you fade or follow, be sure to sign up at bet365 to take home a $200 guaranteed bonus when you do. You'll also have your choice of wagering with first-bet protection worth up to $1,000 to reduce your risk and make sure you don't walk away empty-handed.
 

 

 

Without further ado, let's get into our NFL Week 5 picks and straight up winners.

NFL Week 5 Picks Straight Up For All 13 Weekend Games 

As mentioned, we'll share all NFL Sunday picks as well as our Monday Night Football straight-up winner pick, but will highlight the places where we see higher betting value.

For deeper, detailed analysis, check out our dedicated NFL predictions for each Week 5 game, or our NFL Game Previews tool with dedicated stats and updates. 

 

 


 

NFL Sunday Picks - Week 5 Straight Up Winners 

Let's begin with the NFL Week 5 picks that might not be bet-worthy at their current odds. Again: these are expert straight up picks. No expert will ever tell you to bet on a line that doesn't present any value though, so take these straight up winners and do your own research before wagering.

New York Jets vs. Minnesota Vikings - Sun, 10/6 at 9:30am ET

The Minnesota Vikings will look to continue their surprising start against familiar foe Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets when the two teams square off in London this Sunday morning.

International games always give me pause due to the taxing travel schedules and time changes. These are two of the top defensive units in the league, and the overseas aspect should only make this game that much more of a slog.

 

 

 

New York's moneyline odds sit at +118, which has a 46% implied probability. I consider this a relative coin-flip, so from a straight-up pick perspective, I'm going to side with the slight betting value secured by selecting the Jets. I'm further swayed by seeing that significant sharp money is supporting the Jets as well. New York has received 25% of bets, but 68% of the money at the time of this writing.

NFL Week 5 Straight Up Pick: New York Jets (+115) at bet365

 

 


Carolina Panthers vs. Chicago Bears - Sun, 10/6 at 1pm ET

This game is more intriguing than you might think - or at least it is from a matchups perspective. 

The Panthers have put up 60 points the past two games since Andy Dalton took over for Bryce Young at quarterback. Carolina's defense has continued to struggle though, allowing 56 total points over this same two-game period. Overall, the unit ranks in near the bottom of the league by every meaningful metric.

 

 

 

The Bears have an above-average defense that should have a more-than-above-average showing on Sunday. The Panthers are 30th in pass block win rate this season (48.9%), while the Bears have the 2nd-best QB rating against at 69.0. Dalton has a daunting day ahead. 

Chicago QB Caleb Williams is the wild card here. The Bears have struggled mightily to move the ball with the rookie at the helm. The team averages the 3rd-fewest total yards per game (253.0) but also has managed a more middle-of-the-road 19.3 points per game, the 12th-fewest league-wide.

The Panthers are allowing the 4th-most rushing yards per game (148.8) and ranks dead last in sacks (5), pressures (26) and points allowed (32.3). This is as soft as a matchup as the Chicago offense will see all season.

 

 

 

Ultimately, my Panthers vs. Bears straight up pick can be summed up with a question. Which will win the day: the anemic offense or the hapless defense?

The answer is that the home offense has the significant leg-up here. The Bears have quietly won six straight games at Soldier Field and should make it seven in a row on Sunday.

NFL Week 5 Straight Up Pick: Chicago Bears (-190) at bet365 

 

Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars - Sun, 10/6 at 1pm ET

The Colts will be without Jonathan Taylor, their bellcow back. They'll also be without QB Anthony Richardson - which may or may not be a bad thing.

The Jaguars have arguably been the biggest dissapointment to date. (Yes, even bigger than the Browns.) 

While the spread sits at a manageable -3, the moneyline has moved to a massive -180. There's no betting value here, but I'm backing the Jags to join this week's group of NFL straight up winners.

NFL Week 5 Straight Up Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars (-180) at bet365

 

 


Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots - Sun, 10/6 at 1pm ET

Woof. This one will be hard to watch.

Not every NFL Week 5 pick is going to be pretty. This is one of those NFL Week 5 picks.

NFL Week 5 Straight Up Pick: Miami Dolphins (-120) at bet365


 

Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers - Sun, 10/6 at 4:05pm 

This should be a shootout - even after considering how stout San Francisco's scoring defense has been.

From a fantasy perspective, Arizona is fantastic. But from an on-field perspective? Not so much.

San Francisco's offense is rolling.

NFL Week 5 Straight Up Pick: San Francisco 49ers (-360) at bet365

 

Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals - Sun, 10/6 at 1pm ET

This not only is a likely playoff preview, but also a game that will likely have significant playoff seeding implications when all is said and done.

Believe it or not, Baltimore's starters are completely healthy on both side of the ball. For better or worse, this is pretty unheard of in 2024. The Bengals also are set to benefit on the injury front, with three different starting Defensive Lineman set to take the field: Trey Hendrickson, B.J. Hill, and Myles Murphy.

This game is similar to the Vikings and Jets in that I lean towards the favorites (Baltimore), but consider it closer to a coin-flip. In general, I'm very selective about the spots in which I pick against quality home underdogs so I just can't enthusiastically back Baltimore as the straight-up betting pick. I think that the big-play ability of Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins could be a trump card that can overcome Baltimore's talent advantage, and ultimately would lean in to the hosts having the oh-so-slight edge on the moneyline.

NFL Week 5 Straight Up Pick: Cincinnati Bengals (+115) at bet365

 

 

Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans - Sun, 10/6 at 1pm ET

I know we're focused on straight up picks for NFL Week 5, but give me ALL the Stefon Diggs storylines. The final stat line for the fiery former Bills receiver is something I'll be focusing on for fun. I could see him going for 2/20, or 12/200 and wouldn't be surprised either way.

From a Bills vs. Texans straight-up winner perspective, I'm once again inclined to take the home side in what's otherwise a relative coin-flip. Houston RB Joe Mixon is out once again, but Cam Akers and Dare Ogunbowale combined to fill in for him admirably in Week 4. The return of WR Tank Dell is a bonus boost for the C.J. Stroud-led Texans offense.

Buffalo's injury report has the opposite affect for me, and makes the visitors look a bit more vulnerable. Leading WR Khalil Shakir is out, as are defensive starters Ed Oliver, Austin Johnson and Taylor Rapp.

Stroud has pronounced home/away splits - his career QB Rating is almost 16 points higher at NRG Stadium (107.2) than on the road (91.7) - making this a prime bounce-back spot after the second-year signal-caller struggled mightily against the Vikings in Week 4. Dating back to last season, the Texans have won four straight games at home. My Bills vs. Texans straight-up pick is for the hosts to make it five in a row in Houston.

NFL Week 5 Straight Up Pick: Houston Texans (-120) at bet365 

 

 


 

Cleveland Browns vs. Washington Commanders - Sun, 10/6 at 1pm ET

Are the Redskins Commanders for real? They played beautifully in Week 4, blowing out the Bengals on national TV. 

Is DeShaun Watson THIS washed? He has been nothing short of terrible.

Commanders defense is one of the worst in league. Browns defense is one of the best.

In a vacuum, I can get a wee bit behind Washington to win at home. But from a betting perspective, it's tough to swallow the vig based on where the moneyline sits - which currently is -160 at bet365. That has an implied probability of XX%, which, all things considered, feels too high. Besides, the Browns have to get right at some point. Don't they?

NFL Week 5 Straight Up Pick: Cleveland Browns (+135) at bet365


 

 


 


 

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Denver Broncos - Sun, 10/6 at 4:05pm 

Las Vegas is losing control of its season.

Raiders come in to town with an infirmary full of key injuries. Also, altitude will be a factor.

Broncos won ugly, but the victory is uplifting nonetheless. 

Should be one of the more low-scoring games on the Sunday slate. Low-scoring means it'll likely be close, too, which makes good ol fashioned home field advantage the deciding factor. Bo Nix's Broncos belong on the list of picks for NFL Week 5 straight up winners.

NFL Week 5 Straight Up Pick: Denver Broncos (-150) at bet365


 


 

New York Giants vs. Seattle Seahawks - Sun, 10/6 at 4:25pm ET

ABC

DEF

NFL Week 5 Straight Up Pick: Seattle Seahawks (-320) at bet365


 

Dallas Cowboys vs. Pittsburgh Steelers - Sun, 10/6 at 8:20pm ET

ABC

DEF

NFL Week 5 Straight Up Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers (-150) at bet365


 

New Orleans Saints vs. Kansas City Chiefs - Mon, 10/7 at 8:15pm ET

ABC

DEF

NFL Week 5 Straight Up Pick: New Orleans Saints (+210) at bet365



 

 

NFL Week 5 Spread Picks and Predictions

For how much I've squawked about how your NFL Week 5 straight up winner picks need to be paired with value before you bet on it, I'd be remiss to not share a few of my spread picks and predictions for these same games.

My top NFL Week 5 spread picks are:

X

Y

Z

Bet on these at bet365 and bank a guaranteed $200 bonus when you do.


 

 

NFL Week 5 Odds For All 13 Games, Provided by bet365 Sportsbook

Jets vs. Vikings Odds 

  • Spread: 
    • Jets +2.0 (-110)
    • Vikings -2.0 (-110)
  • Total:
    • Over 40.5 (-110)
    • Under 40.5 (-110)
  • Moneyline:
    • Jets: +115
    • Vikings: -135

Ravens vs. Bengals Odds 

  • Spread: 
    • Ravens -2.5 (-110)
    • Bengals +2.5 (-110)
  • Total:
    • Over 48.5 (-110)
    • Under 48.5 (-110)
  • Moneyline:
    • Ravens: -135
    • Bengals: +135

Bills vs. Texans Odds 

  • Spread: 
    • Bills +1.0 (-110)
    • Texans -1.0 (-110)
  • Total:
    • Over 47.0 (-110)
    • Under 47.0 (-110)
  • Moneyline:
    • Bills: +100
    • Texans: -120

Panthers vs. Bears Odds 

  • Spread: 
    • Panthers +4.0 (-115)
    • Bears -4.0 (-105)
  • Total:
    • Over 41.0 (-110)
    • Under 41.0 (-110)
  • Moneyline:
    • Bears: +160
    • Panthers: -190

Browns vs. Commanders Odds 

  • Spread: 
    • Browns +3.0 (-115)
    • Commanders -3.0 (-105)
  • Total:
    • Over 43.5 (-110)
    • Under 43.5 (-110)
  • Moneyline:
    • Browns: +135
    • Commanders: -160

Colts vs. Jaguars Odds 

  • Spread: 
    • Colts +3.0 (-105)
    • Jaguars -3.0 (-115)
  • Total:
    • Over 45.5 (-110)
    • Under 45.5 (-110)
  • Moneyline:
    • Colts: +150
    • Jaguars: -180

Dolphins vs. Patriots Odds 

  • Spread: 
    • Dolphins -1.0 (-110)
    • Patriots +1.0 (-110)
  • Total:
    • Over 35.5 (-110)
    • Under 35.5 (-110)
  • Moneyline:
    • Dolphins: -120
    • Patriots: +100

Cardinals vs. 49ers Odds 

  • Spread: 
    • Cardinals +7.0 (-105)
    • 49ers -7.0 (-115)
  • Total:
    • Over 49.0 (-110)
    • Under 49.0 (-110)
  • Moneyline:
    • Cardinals: +280
    • 49ers: -360

Raiders vs. Broncos Odds 

  • Spread: 
    • Raiders +3.0 (-115)
    • Broncos -3.0 (-105)
  • Total:
    • Over 35.5 (-110)
    • Under 35.5 (-110)
  • Moneyline:
    • Raiders: +125
    • Broncos: -150




 

Green Bay Packers vs. Los Angeles Rams - Sun, 10/6 at 4:25pm ET

New York Giants vs. Seattle Seahawks - Sun, 10/6 at 4:25pm ET

Dallas Cowboys vs. Pittsburgh Steelers - Sun, 10/6 at 8:20pm ET

New Orleans Saints vs. Kansas City Chiefs - Mon, 10/7 at 8:15pm ET

 

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