With NFL Week 1 kicking off on Thursday with a matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Rams there is no better time than now to dive into some NFL player props and while other sites have their own version of pick'em games No House Advantage is where you want to be thanks in part to their unique  GPP Pick'em contest where you pick your favorite player props and rank them with confidence points and those points will determine where you finish in the Pick'em contest standings!

 

Thursday night No House Advantage has a $20-entry Pick'em contest with a $50,000 Guaranteed Prize Pool where $20,000 goes to first place! 

For this contest you select over or under for seven different player props with point values ranging from 1-to-7 points based on your confidence in the prop that you select. As your props are correct you accumulate the corresponding points to that play.

 

Thursday's TNF Showdown Contest Selections

Stefon Diggs Under 6.5 Receptions

Diggs only went over 6.5 receptions last season in eight of the 17 games he played in which means less than 50% of the contests he would have gone under this total. Now add in the matchup against Jalen Ramsey and a really tough Rams defense and it feels like this one has a pretty good shot at the under while Gabriel Davis, Isaiah McKenzie and Dawson Knox get the softer matchups.

Josh Allen Over 40.5 Rushing Yards

Allen rushed for over 40.5 yards in 10 of the 17 games last season and rushed for 35 or more yards in 12 of 17 games. Now, does it matter that he rushed for 35 and 39 here when we want over 40.5? No, not really, but I just wanted to make a point that it is well within his range of outcomes here. The Rams have a really good defense and a strong secondary and that good Rams secondary may actually lead to Allen being forced from the pocket and looking to make plays with his legs to extend drives.  Running with the odds here, no pun intended.

Jamison Crowder Under 30.5 Receiving Yards

So, this one could either be a platform mistake or a lot of folks are going to be getting this one wrong. All reports are that Isaiah McKenzie will be good to go on Thursday and based off all the reports during camp it is McKenzie and not Crowder that will be the team's starting slot receiver this season. The actual amount of snaps Crowder would see in that scenario seems minimal and therefore the odds he would go over 30.5 yards also seems slim.

Allen Robinson Over 50.5 Receiving Yards

Sure, Cooper Kupp had an all-time season in 2021 but what are the odds he is going to repeat that performance? In Week 1 we have to think the Bills are going to be bracketing Kupp as best they can and therefore leaving Robinson in some favorable matchups on the outside. Last season it was pretty clear that Robinson had zero will to play football in Chicago and that stemmed all the way back to the preseason when he wanted to be traded. He now lands with the defending Super Bowl champions and has the best QB he has ever played with throwing him the football. I think we have a breakout game here for Robinson as he reminds the league just how good he is.

Cam Akers Under 55.5 Rushing Yards

Do we know how healthy Cam Akers really is? He missed time during camp and he is coming back from an injury that few successfully come back from. He looked awful in his playing time last season during the playoffs and now he goes up against one of the leagues best run defenses out of the gate. Taking the under here and will continue to do so until Akers shows me he can be the player we hoped he would be after his impressive rookie season.

Gabe Davis Over 60.5 Receiving Yards

This is pretty much the same take as the one for Allen Robinson. The Rams defense will have their best corner against Stefon Diggs and that will leave Davis at times with some favorable matchups on the outside. You know Josh Allen is going to take some shots down field and it only takes one for Davis to hit the over on this total.

Cooper Kupp Over 7.5 Receptions

I couldn't bring myself to take the under on this prop even though I do think it's in the range of outcomes here. Kupp had an incredible season in 2021 and he runs the type of routes that allow for Matthew Stafford to hit him over and over again but the league has to have caught onto that by now right? The addition of Allen Robinson should draw away some of the target share and I think Kupp just gets over this on the number with eight catches as this game has a high total and figures to be a shoot out.