The playoffs are here! Welcome to the Divisional Round! The WR/CB Matchups article takes a different spin this week, as it is expanded with more DFS notes to serve as the weekly DFS WR Coach as well. In a nutshell, this article is your one-stop shop for the wide receiver position this Divisional Round.
Remember, the No. 1 wide receiver doesn’t always matchup against the No. 1 cornerback. This isn’t a game of Madden! Seriously, it’s not!
Follow me on Twitter (@colbyrconway) as well!
| Left WR | Right CB | Analysis |
| Michael Gallup DAL | Marcus Peters LAR | Earlier in the year, Peters was an easy target to pick on. However, over the last four weeks of the season, he allowed a 39.6 passer rating when targeted.* That's damn good. Aqib Talib was actually more vulnerable in coverage, and in fact, he was targeted 33 percent more during that stretch than Peters! Gallup is in a less advantageous spot than teammate Cooper, for more reasons than just the matchup, most notably target share. |
| Dontrelle Inman IND | Steven Nelson KC | Inman was just the latest receiver to have a decent fantasy day against the sieve of a Houston secondary. This matchup is a fair one for Nelson, as the Chiefs have adopted the mentality of "whatever you score, we'll just score more." Indy will put up some points in this one, and Inman has a touchdown in three straight contests. He's caught at least four passes for 46 yards and a touchdown in three straight games. |
| Sammy Watkins KC | Quincy Wilson IND | Watkins practiced in some capacity this week, and if he can play, the fifth-year pro out of Wide Receiver University (Clemson) should be out there for the Chiefs. He might be on a snap count, but with Patrick Mahomes, he's yet another weapon on the field. He's a very risky play, but his ownership will be very low, so buy at your own risk in what could be the highest scoring game on the slate. |
| Mike Williams LAC | J.C. Jackson NE | It was a tough matchup against the Ravens last week, and Williams caught just two of his five targets for 42 yards. This matchup is much better for Williams, and at his price point in DFS, he could easily reach 2.5x-3x value. He's my second favorite receiver for the Chargers this weekend in a game that should see both teams eclipse 24 points. |
| Brandin Cooks LAR | Byron Jones DAL | Of starting corners last weekend in the Wild Card round, no starting corner allowed a higher passer rating when targeted than Dallas' Byron Jones. His struggles have lasted a few weeks now, and a matchup with Brandin Cooks isn't an easy one by any means.* In the playoffs, it's about getting the ball to your playmakers, and Todd Gurley won't be as effective as he normally is, as Dallas is stout against the run. It's going to be a big, big, BIG Brandin Cooks day. |
| Philip Dorsett NE | Michael Davis LAC | Dorsett scored in the regular season finale, which helped, but he caught just five passes for 34 yards. Upside could be capped against Davis, as he allowed just 11 yards per reception and a 74.4 passer rating when targeted over the last four weeks of the regular season. Dorsett offers nice salary relief, but the upside is limited with the ample weapons at Tom Brady's disposal. |
| Michael Thomas NO | Rasul Douglas PHI | Overall, Thomas had a phenomenal regular season, catching a league-high 125 passes for 1,405 yards and nine touchdowns. He was quiet for the Saints down the stretch, as he was held to under 50 receiving yards in four of his last six contests. However, it's a big playoff matchup against a secondary that has been playing better of late, but it's still a bunch of backups. Thomas is in line for a big day with Drew Brees at the helm in his home stadium. |
| Alshon Jeffery PHI | Marshon Lattimore NO | This matchup isn't a revenge game for Jeffery, but Nick Foles will continue to rely on his top receiver early and often. After a rough start, Lattimore picked up his play in his final eight games, allowing zero touchdowns in coverage and a 71.2 passer rating when targeted.* Jeffery carries a respectable floor into this divisional round, but he doesn't match the potential upside of the likes of Tyreek Hill, T.Y. Hilton, etc. However, he will be less owned, and this week is all about differentiation. |
| Right WR | Left CB | Analysis |
| Amari Cooper DAL | Aqib Talib LAR | As expected, Cooper was very productive against the Seattle defense in the Wild Card round, and finds himself in another good matchup. The former Alabama standout gets a matchup with Aqib Talib this weekend, and he allowed the sixth-most receiving yards over the last four weeks of the regular season. An extra week of rest likely did him well, but it's still a good spot for Cooper, who should see at least eight targets in this contest. Love Cooper this weekend. |
| T.Y. Hilton IND | Orlando Scandrick KC | Hilton will be limited in practice, but have no worries as he will most certainly be out there in the Divisional Round for Andrew Luck and the Colts. Scandrick allowed five touchdowns in coverage this season, but he was the team's best corner for the season, and he was targeted less than teammates Steven Nelson and Kendall Fuller.* Love Hilton in a high-scoring affair with the Kansas City Chiefs. |
| Tyreek Hill KC | Pierre Desir IND | Desir was very good in the team's win against the Colts, but a struggling Deshaun Watson and injured DeAndre Hopkins won't pose the threat that Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill will. Desir is lengthy and can disrupt Hill at the line of scrimmage, but Hill's speed and shiftiness could wreak havoc. Hill has the highest upside on the entire slate. |
| Tyrell Williams LAC | Stephon Gilmore NE | Gilmore has been very good and incredibly reliable for the coaching brass in New England. Over the last four weeks, he allowed just 11 receptions, on 24 targets, and a 70.3 passer rating when targeted.* Williams needs the big play to make, and exceed, value, but I don't envision that happening in this matchup. New England tends to bend but not break, and that should be magnified in the playoffs. I'm fading Williams in what can be considered Week 19, also known as the Divisional Round. |
| Josh Reynolds LAR | Chidobe Awuzie DAL | Since Dallas' bye, Awuzie has actually been the better corner for the Cowboys, if you solely look at yards allowed, yards per reception and passer rating when targeted.* Sure, matchups play a part in that, but it is worth noting. Reynolds will get his five or six targets, but outside of his two touchdowns in the team's regular season finale, it's been a quiet run of things for Reynolds since stepping into the starting lineup. He doesn't garner much consideration in my book for this weekend. |
| Chris Hogan NE | Casey Hayward LAC | Want an under-the-radar play? Chris Hogan is your guy. Hayward allowed two touchdown receptions last week, and the last time we saw Hogan, he received 11 targets from quarterback Tom Brady. With just a four-game slate, taking a chance on Hogan cannot hurt, as his potential upside outweighs the risk. You need to differentiate, and when everyone else zigs to Julian Edelman or Rob Gronkowski, zag over to Hogan yourself. |
| Ted Ginn Jr. NO | Avonte Maddox PHI | The Bears struggled throwing against Maddox at times, but particularly later in the game, double moves were hurting the young corner. Ginn has the ability to get downfield and with Maddox allowing the most receiving yards on Wild Card Weekend, Ginn is a very intriguing play in the Divisional Round.* |
| Nelson Agholor PHI | Eli Apple NO | The Saints allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing receivers this season, but the defense stepped up and was much better the last few weeks of the regular season. Agholor will need to get a deep reception or two to make value, but his target share with Nick Foles has remained steady. However, production has been hit or miss. He's not my preferred play this weekend, but to differentiate yourself, I understand the decision to roster him. Will I? Probably not. |
Now, here are this weekend’s matchups in the slot.
| Slot WR | Slot CB | Analysis |
| Cole Beasley DAL | Nickell Robey-Coleman LAR | Beasley will continue to gut it out for the Cowboys, but his ankle injury is visibly hampering him and he comes off the field more frequently. He'll get a few targets here and there, but there's too much risk in paying for Beasley this week. |
| Chester Rogers IND | Kendall Fuller KC | Over his last three games, Rogers is averaging over five targets per game, topping 45 yards in two of those three contests. In the last four weeks of the regular season, Fuller allowed the second-most yards in slot coverage.* If you want cheap exposure to a high-scoring game, here's your guy. Take it and run with it. |
| Chris Conley KC | Kenny Moore IND | Conley gets a small bump if Sammy Watkins is unable to return, but Watkins on the field would knock Conley down a few steps. By no means is he unplayable, especially with how many points the Chiefs put up and considering the day Keke Coutee had out of the slot for the Texans against the Colts last week. However, with the plethora of weapons available for Patrick Mahomes, he's no better than the fourth or fifth option. |
| Keenan Allen LAC | Jason McCourty NE | Allen has faced the Ravens in two of his last three games, and Baltimore's pass defense is exceptional. This matchup is much better for Allen, and his rapport with quarterback Philip Rivers is otherworldly. Over the last four weeks of the regular season, McCourty allowed two touchdowns in slot coverage, and Allen's red zone usage is steady and reliable. Allen is a core building block for your lineups this weekend. |
| Robert Woods LAR | Anthony Brown DAL | It was an exceptional season for Woods, as he caught 86 balls for 1,219 yards and six touchdowns. The injury to Cooper Kupp shifted Woods into the slot and if the Rams' run game is bottled up by the impressive front seven of the Cowboys, the passing game could be short passes to Woods. With these Rams receivers, I prefer Woods on DraftKings and Cooks on FanDuel. |
| Julian Edelman NE | Desmond King LAC | Over the last three weeks of the regular season, King allowed a 122.6 passer rating when targeted and one touchdown in slot coverage.* Edelman has at least eight targets in four of his last five games, and the veteran slot receiver has three touchdowns in his past four games. I like Chris Hogan as well in this matchup, but Edelman's ownership, and floor, will be higher. |
| Keith Kirkwood NO | Cre'Von LeBlanc PHI | The Saints will put up some points in this game, but the rookie out of Temple just doesn't offer the upside needed to win money in these small slates. Plus, LeBlanc played a pretty nice game last weekend out of the slot for the Eagles. Fade Kirkwood. |
| Golden Tate PHI | P.J. Williams NO | The yardage wasn't impressive last week, but Tate saw eight targets and caught a very important touchdown pass. Williams has struggled in slot coverage all season, and this matchup is one the Eagles likely look to exploit in the Divisional round. Tate is a very intriguing play and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him put up his best statistical game as an Eagle in this pivotal playoff showdown. |
Elite Plays
Brandin Cooks Jones has had a solid season overall for Dallas, and there’s no doubting that, but I’m buying into the fact that Jones has really struggled the past few weeks and hasn’t even been the best corner on his team! He struggled last week in coverage, and no cornerback allowed a higher passing rating when targeted in the Wild Card round amongst starting corners than Jones. There will be an added focus to stop, or at least slow down, Los Angeles’ run game, forcing Jared Goff to beat them. If so, turn the heat up, and targets, for Cooks!
Keenan Allen vs. Jason McCourty
Allen will move around the offense and will likely see a bit of every corner, but he’ll primarily deal with Jason McCourty in the slot. Over the last four weeks of the regular season, McCourty may have only allowed eight receptions in slot coverage, but two of those receptions went for touchdowns, not to mention McCourty allowed a 95.5 passer rating when targeted.* If others look at Allen’s recent performances and are scared to play him this week, GOOD! Then #FANation feasts and the entire #Family eats good! He’s dealt with some tough matchups in recent weeks, including the Ravens twice, and an unfortunate injury knocked him out of a potentially lucrative matchup against the Chiefs. Pay up for Allen. You won’t regret it.
Desir contained DeAndre Hopkins last week, despite the star receiver dealing with a Grade 3 AC joint sprain for the entirety of the second half. Desir’s length allows him to press receivers at the line of scrimmage, and that will be key to disrupting the speedy Hill early. Simply put, Indianapolis cannot let Hill get free releases at the line of scrimmage, so expect Desir to be in press coverage early and often, or at least up near the line of scrimmage. However, Hill is so quick, so fast, so slippery, and so shifty, that all of that may not even matter in the end. He’s a big play threat with Patrick Mahomes under center and he stresses the hell out of opposing coaches, coordinators and defenses. Patrick Mahomes has a 117.7 passer rating and 12 touchdowns when throwing to his No. 1 receiver.* Yep. Elite.
Affordable Plays
Hogan is another player that will likely be lower owned on this slate. Finding big upside on a small slate with low or lower ownership is critical. I believe we will have that here with Mr. Hogan, the former lacrosse star, in case you haven’t heard Cris Collinsworth say that. Last time we saw Hogan on the field, he saw 11 targets. Sure, that would be considered an outlier compared to recent weeks and the season as a whole, but targets are targets, and the matchup with Hayward does not scare me this week. In a potentially high-scoring affair, Hogan could go for 80+ yards and a touchdown. I’ll take that at his price in DFS every day of the week.
Talib is a very good corner, and he’s dealt with some tough matchups in recent weeks, but over the last four weeks of the regular season, Talib allowed the sixth-most yards in coverage.* Cooper is averaging 10 targets per game over his last two contests, and nine targets per game over his last five weeks. During that span, he has three games of fewer than 35 yards, and two contests over 100 yards, including one 217-yard outburst. There is some volatility here, but he has the upside to win you a slate.
Bargain Bin
Chester Rogers vs. Kendall Fuller
Is there risk with Rogers? Abso-freaking-lutely! He’s topped 45 yards in just two of his last five games, with 54 yards being his highest total in that span. However, Fuller has struggled in slot coverage, and has arguably been Kansas City’s most vulnerable corner for the majority of the season. Over the last four weeks of the regular season, Fuller allowed the second-most receiving yards out of the slot.*
Ted Ginn Jr. vs. Avonte Maddox
Maddox had some nice plays early on against the Bears in Wild Card Weekend, but that confidence disappeared quickly when the Bears started exposing him on double moves, en route to some big plays against him. Ginn is a crafty veteran who can still get down the field and stress opposing defenses. He likely won’t see any double coverage, as the Eagles need to focus their attention towards a receiver by the name of Michael Thomas . Ginn has big time upside this week.
In a Nutshell . . .
Fantasy Points Per Game Allowed to Opposing Wide Receivers (1st means most points allowed. 32nd means fewest points allowed | |||
TEAM | Fantasy Points Per Game (Reg. Season) | Fantasy Points Per Game (Last 4 Weeks of Reg. Season) | Fantasy Points Per Game (Last 2 Weeks of Reg. Season) |
Dallas | 27th | 18th | 10th |
Indianapolis | 30th | 30th | 31st |
Kansas City | 15th | 6th | 16th |
Los Angeles Chargers | 28th | 29th | 32nd |
Los Angeles Rams | 11th | 23rd | 15th |
New England | 21st | 17th | 23rd |
New Orleans | 1st | 16th | 5th |
Philadelphia | 6th | 8th | 21st |
High Exposure:Brandin Cooks , Keenan Allen , Tyreek Hill , Golden Tate , Amari Cooper
No Exposure:Tyrell Williams , Josh Reynolds , Philip Dorsett, Sammy Watkins , Michael Gallup , Cole Beasley , Keith Kirkwood
Worth a Shot: Chris Hogan , Chester Rogers
Final Notes for the Divisional Slate
- I’m really liking lineup builds with two of these three: Brandin Cooks , Keenan Allen , Tyreek Hill . Getting all three his very tough.
- When everyone zigs to Julian Edelman , zag to Chris Hogan in a few lineups
- Chester Rogers will be the second-most productive Indianapolis wide receiver, behind T.Y. Hilton , returning at least 2.5x value.
- Golden Tate > All other Philadelphia wideouts
*Information gathered from research done at Pro Football Focus.