The playoffs are here! Welcome to the AFC and NFC Championships! Just like last week, the WR/CB Matchups article takes a different spin here in the playoffs compared to the regular season, as it is expanded with more DFS notes to serve as the weekly DFS WR Coach as well. In a nutshell, this article is your one-stop shop for the wide receiver position this Championship Round.
Remember, the No. 1 wide receiver doesn’t always matchup against the No. 1 cornerback. This isn’t a game of Madden! Seriously, it’s not!
Follow me on Twitter (@colbyrconway) as well!
| Left WR | Right CB | Analysis |
| Sammy Watkins KC | Stephon Gilmore NE | Watkins looked fine last week in terms of his health, but this matchup is worrisome. Patrick Mahomes will sling the rock all around the yard in this one, but with Gilmore on lockdown coverage, it could be tough sledding for the former Clemson star. You'll want some exposure to Watkins, but not a ton. |
| Brandin Cooks LAR | Marshon Lattimore NO | Lattimore recorded two picks last week, one of which was a gimme, but the other was an impressive grab near the sideline. Cooks will get his targets in this game, but Sean McVay should be dialing things up for Woods in the slot against P.J. Williams. In short, Woods over Cooks this week. |
| Philip Dorsett NE | Steven Nelson KC | Albeit on just a handful of targets, Nelson has allowed the highest passer rating among corners during this postseason, largely due to allowing a touchdown reception last week against the Colts.* Dorsett won't be owned, and on a small slate, you need to differentiate somewhere, and perhaps Dorsett is that guy. |
| Michael Thomas NO | Marcus Peters LAR | Thomas is the most targeted wide receiver among the teams still standing, and Peters has allowed the most receiving yards of the last four teams.* When push comes to shove, both of these players are talented, but regardless of the matchup, Drew Brees will look to Thomas when the offense needs a play. Thomas is worth every penny this week. |
| Right WR | Left CB | Analysis |
| Chris Conley KC | J.C. Jackson NE | While his numbers are inflated because of last week's game script, Jackson was the most targeted cornerback among the team's remaining in the Divisional Round.* He held up well, and has been good for the Patriots all season long. Conley will be a contrarian play, but he doesn't have the upside to be the driving force behind a big victory on a small slate. |
| Josh Reynolds LAR | Eli Apple NO | Reynolds saw just four targets last week and Jared Goff had a passer rating of just 46.9 when targeting Reynolds.* Tough matchup for Reynolds, as the change of scenery for Apple has elevated his play. Fade Reynolds this week. |
| Chris Hogan NE | Charvarius Ward KC | Ward played well last week, but note that practically all season, Orlando Scandrick was a starting corner for this team, not Ward. The Colts went after Ward, and while he held up last week, Tom Brady will know how to attack the 2018 undrafted free agent out of Middle Tennessee State. In short, I absolutely love Hogan to be a difference maker on this slate. |
| Ted Ginn Jr. NO | Aqib Talib LAR | If Drew Brees doesn't under throw Ginn on the first play of the win over the Eagles last week, it's a different narrative heading into this week for Ginn. He will get his targets and will get downfield, but Talib was tough on the opposition last week. While Talib wasn't as good the last few weeks of the regular season, he stepped it up in the first playoff game. Ginn has some appeal, but much, much less than last week. |
Now, here are this weekend’s matchups in the slot.
| Slot WR | Slot CB | Analysis |
| Tyreek Hill KC | Jason McCourty NE | McCourty allowed an 80 percent catch rate and a 118.8 passer rating when targeted last week.* In the regular season, Hill posted an 89.8 player grade and Patrick Mahomes had a 113.9 passer rating when targeting Hill.* No one can match Hill's upside, as seen by the fact that Hill caught seven balls for 142 yards and three touchdowns back in Week 6 of the regular season. |
| Robert Woods LAR | P.J. Williams NO | If you want a piece of the Rams passing attack on this slate, which you should, here is the guy you want. Williams has struggled in slot coverage all season, and last week, Williams allowed a touchdown grab and an average of 19 yards per reception.* Woods is a lock this week. Don't overthink it. |
| Julian Edelman NE | Kendall Fuller KC | Only Michael Thomas has more receptions and yards in the playoffs among the final four teams than Mr. Edelman. Fuller can be had in the slot and Edelman is a preferred target of Tom Brady. Edelman is an easy plug-and-play matchup on this small slate. His ownership will be high, but his high floor and upside is tough to fade. |
| Keith Kirkwood NO | Nickell Robey-Coleman LAR | Kirkwood's touchdown catch was the only bright spot from last week, as he managed just two receptions for a whopping eight yards. Robey-Coleman isn't an easy target out of the slot, and with a limited role in the offense, Kirkwood cannot be trusted, even with a small player pool in effect for this week. |
Elite Plays
Tyreek Hill vs. Jason McCourty
Hill’s upside is unparalleled on this slate, and while the Patriots are notorious for slowing down the opposition’s best player, the team failed to do so back in Week 6 of the regular season. In case you forgot, Hill caught seven of 12 targets for 142 yards and not one, not two, but THREE touchdowns! McCourty allowed a 118.8 passer rating last week and even though Hill will likely be highly owned, you need his upside in your lineups. It’s very hard to fade him.
Robert Woods vs. P.J. Williams
Williams was vulnerable in coverage last week as well, and Sean McVaywill game plan Woods open in this matchup. When going against a much improved – from earlier in the season—Saints defense, attacking Williams and moving off Lattimore and Apple is key. Woods accounted for 70 first downs in the regular season and Jared Goff had a 104.2 passer rating when targeting Woods.* Love Woods this week.
Affordable Plays
Julian Edelman vs. Kendall Fuller
What if I told you that there was a cornerback that allowed the most receptions and receiving yards in the entire league in slot coverage this season playing this weekend? Yes, it’s Fuller! Edelman, a star out of the slot, has a tasty matchup and Edelman’s appeal is quite easy to understand this weekend. See for yourself:
Good slot receiver (Edelman) + good matchup (vs. Fuller) + positive game script where New England will need to score points = DING DINGDING. BIG PRODUCTION ALERT!
Michael Thomas vs. Marcus Peters
No receiver in the National Football League had more receptions in the regular season than Michael Thomas , and that trend has continued here in the postseason. Of the remaining teams left in playoffs, Thomas has the most receptions and targets amongst receivers. Peters has allowed some yardage this postseason and in a game where ample points should be scored, it’s hard to fade Thomas in this small slate. His upside comes closest to Kansas City’s Tyreek Hill . Love Thomas this week.
Bargain Bin
Hogan didn’t quite come through last week as to what I thought, but I’m back on the wagon in Championship weekend! Despite catching just three of five targets for a whopping 13 yards, Hogan is in a good spot this week. Ward, a backup corner for the team, will likely be the attacking point of this Kansas City defense, and we know that the Tom Brady and Bill Belichick duo are notorious for attacking the best matchup on the field. Well, that is this one, folks.
In a Nutshell . . .
Fantasy Points Per Game Allowed to Opposing Wide Receivers (1st means most points allowed. 32nd means fewest points allowed | |||
TEAM | Fantasy Points Per Game (Reg. Season) | Fantasy Points Per Game (Last 4 Weeks of Reg. Season) | Fantasy Points Per Game (Last 2 Weeks of Reg. Season) |
Kansas City | 15th | 6th | 16th |
Los Angeles Rams | 11th | 23rd | 15th |
New England | 21st | 17th | 23rd |
New Orleans | 1st | 16th | 5th |
High Exposure: Tyreek Hill , Robert Woods , Michael Thomas
No Exposure: Chris Conley , Keith Kirkwood , Cordarrelle Patterson
Worth a Shot: Chris Hogan , Josh Reynolds , Brandin Cooks , Ted Ginn
*Information gathered from research done at Pro Football Focus.