2026 NFL Mock Draft: Predicting Where the Top Quarterbacks Land

The 2026 NFL Draft cycle is officially in full swing. Following a 2025 season that saw a resurgence of defensive dominance and several high-profile veteran flameouts, the thirst for franchise signal-callers has reached a fever pitch. While the 2026 class doesn’t boast the historic depth of the "Caleb Williams year," it features a polarized market: one consensus superstar and a chaotic race for the remaining first-round slots.

QB1 Race: Early Outlook

The race for the top spot is effectively over before the Combine even begins. Fernando Mendoza (Indiana) has cemented himself as the undisputed QB1. After transferring from Cal, Mendoza led the Hoosiers to a perfect 16-0 season and the program's first-ever National Championship. Having secured the 2025 Heisman Trophy with a nation-leading 41 passing touchdowns, Mendoza is viewed as the "surest thing" since Trevor Lawrence.

At 6'5" and 225 lbs, Mendoza combines a prototypical frame with elite processing. His rise has pushed other prospects into a tier of projection and "upside," leaving scouts to debate who holds the silver medal.

Current 2026 NFL Draft QB Rankings

Teams Desperate for a Quarterback

Heading into the 2026 offseason, several franchises are facing a "reset" at the most important position on the field.

• Las Vegas Raiders: The Geno Smith experiment in Vegas was a disaster; Smith struggled through a 2-13 record as a starter in 2025, throwing 17 interceptions. This collapse left the Raiders with the #1 overall pick. All signs point to new head coach Klint Kubiak taking Mendoza to stabilize a franchise that hasn't drafted a first-round QB since 2007.
• New York Jets: The Jets are entering their second offseason under head coach Aaron Glenn and GM Darren Mougey. Holding two first-round picks (#2 and #16), the pressure to find a long-term successor is immense.
• Arizona Cardinals: The Kyler Murray era appears to be reaching its conclusion as the team sits on the #3 overall pick. With a massive dead cap hit looming, Arizona may look for a cheaper, younger alternative to rebuild around.
• Miami Dolphins: After a disappointing 7-10 campaign in 2025, the Dolphins hold the #11 pick. Following the departure of head coach Mike McDaniel, Miami needs a high-ceiling prospect to help rebuild the offense and usher in a brand-new era for the franchise.

Best Landing Spots for Fantasy Value

• Los Angeles Rams: With Matthew Stafford nearing the end of his career, a prospect like Garrett Nussmeier or Ty Simpson landing in Sean McVay’s system would be a goldmine. The Rams currently hold the #29 pick but have shown a historical willingness to be aggressive for the right talent.
• New Orleans Saints: Led by head coach Kellen Moore, the Saints have a unique opportunity. Their offensive coordinator is Doug Nussmeier, the father of LSU standout Garrett Nussmeier. A "homecoming" for the younger Nussmeier on Day Two would provide him with immediate familiarity in a system designed for vertical efficiency.

Dark Horse QB Prospects

1. Cole Payton (North Dakota State): A burly, dual-threat southpaw with physical tools that rival Josh Allen.
2. Taylen Green (Arkansas): Standing 6'6", Green's athleticism has drawn comparisons to Randall Cunningham. A strong showing during Senior Bowl week could push him into the late first round.

How QB Movement Shapes Round 1

The "QB Tax" is real. Even in a class considered "muddied" after the top prospect, teams will inevitably reach.

"In most years, the pecking order is set. This year, if you don't get Mendoza, you're betting on traits. That leads to trades," says one AFC scouting director.

The Las Vegas Raiders are expected to hold firm at #1 for Mendoza. However, the New York Jets at #2 and the Arizona Cardinals at #3 hold the keys to the draft. If they pass on QBs to take blue-chip defensive talent like Ohio State's Arvell Reese, look for teams like the Pittsburgh Steelers (#21) or Miami Dolphins (#11) to potentially trade up to snag one of the remaining Tier 2 passers.