The official start of the 2023 fantasy football season in redraft leagues kicked off this weekend with the start of Scott Fish Bowl 13, but the betting market has been going since the NFL Draft. Sure, everyone is placing bets on the Patrick Mahomes lines to lead all quarterbacks in passing yards, the Christian McCaffrey to finish as the number one running back, or Jalen Hurts to have the most rushing touchdowns, but we don’t want to go chalk here. There are so many options to place your wagers on, whether it’s DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, and more, and with our preseason projections, you’ve already got a leg up on the competition. These lines can change the closer we get to the start of the season, but the odds for some of the current bets are too good to pass up. Here are some of the player props and best bets before NFL training camp kicks off. 

 

Quarterback Props

Desmond Ridder Over 2501.5 Passing Yards: -110 (BetMGM Sportsbook)

Even with Marcus Mariota under center, a litany of injuries, and the second-fewest pass attempts in the league, the 2022 Atlanta Falcons finished with 2,927 total passing yards. Yes, everyone is keying in on Bijan Robinson (as we’ll discuss later), but Atlanta can’t run on every play. With Drake London in his second season, Kyle Pitts returning from injury, and a respectable running game in a weak division, Ridder should easily be able to reach this benchmark. He only averaged 177 passing yards in the four games he played last year, but in a 17 game season, that still equals out to over 3,000 yards. The low passing volume is built into the line, plus some! Ridder takes care of the ball and minimizes his turnovers, something that couldn’t be said about Mariota, and the sportsbooks are well-undervaluing his second-year potential.

Aaron Rodgers Over 3800.5 Passing Yards: -110 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

Four-time NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers should be doing his best Rodney Dangerfield impression right now; he’s getting no respect! Even with a revolving door of backup and bad quarterbacks last season, the Jets combined for over 4,000 passing yards, and Rodgers has hit that mark each year he’s been healthy but one. While that one deviation was, admittedly, last season, he was playing with two rookies who dealt with injuries throughout the year and who were learning the system. Now that he has Garrett Wilson, a true bona fide number one wide receiver, Nathaniel Hackett back as his offensive coordinator, and a competitive division, expect him to bounce back to MVP form. This line may be cutting it closer than others in this article, but in Rodgers, we trust.

Anthony Richardson Over 15.5 Passing Touchdowns: -110 (DraftKings Sportsbook)

It seems like everyone is very spooked about the scouting talk about Richardson’s lack of development, but this is taking things a little too far. Early reports from OTAs have said that Richardson’s development is more ahead of schedule than we thought prior to the draft, and with Shane Steichen at the helm, the Colts’ offense is going to be much improved. Steichen is known for developing a little-known quarterback by the name of Jalen Hurts, and we’ve seen how that story worked out. Despite Richardson’s mechanics and lack of weapons at Florida, he still threw for 17 touchdowns in 12 games in his first year as a starter, and with Michael Pittman, Alec Pierce, and rookie Josh Downs, he’ll have plenty more to work with in Indianapolis. Sure, his rushing ability could eat into his passing touchdowns, but 15.5 is absurdly low.

Dak Prescott Over 26.5 Passing Touchdowns: +110 (DraftKings Sportsbook)

Where is this disrespect for Dak Prescott coming from? He was throwing to the likes of Noah Brown, Kavonte Turpin, and T.Y. Hilton as his number two options last year, missed five games, and he STILL had 23 passing touchdowns. Dallas got him a legitimate number two option with veteran Brandin Cooks, and the departure of Ezekiel Elliott, who was always the go-to in the red zone, has opened things up for a full-on air raid attack. As good as Tony Pollard is, there are concerns about his ability to handle a full workload, so there is going to be plenty of passing, even with the departure of former offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. Getting plus odds on a quarterback who threw 37 touchdown passes just one season ago is an absolute smash.

 

Wide Receiver Props

Jaylen Waddle Over 1500 Receiving Yards: +1200 (DraftKings Sportsbook)

The odds on this prop are insane, but it’s because it’s a different kind of bet. Instead of the usual over/under we see, it’s under “receiving milestones” on DraftKings Sportsbook, and there is where you can find some EXTREMELY juicy numbers. I’m not saying bet the house on this one, but at +1200 odds, I can’t help but take Jaylen Waddle with the over here. Last season, despite playing four games (well, really five) without quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, Waddle finished with 1,356 receiving yards. In his second season, he exploited opposing defenders, averaging 2.81 yards per route run (YPRR), and in a very competitive division (and the possibility of a Tyreek Hill suspension possibly looming), he can reach the elite milestone this season. At +1200, the odds are too good to not lay some skin on it.

CeeDee Lamb Over 1500 Receiving Yards: +600 (DraftKings Sportsbook)

I had to throw CeeDee Lamb in here for much of the same reason I included Dak Prescott in the previous segment. Now that there is an actual number two on this receiving corps, defenses won’t be able to key in on him like they did last season. Lamb ran the 15th-most routes against man coverage last year, and although he was still able to produce at a high level, it will be much easier for him in a zone scheme. He finished with 1,369 yards in 2022, just below the threshold, with a YPRR of 2.62, and with these added offensive pieces, expect him to finish in that elite tier of wide receivers and easily cash this prop.

Drake London Over 4.5 Receiving Touchdowns: +100 (Caesars Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook)

So much disrespect is happening on these sportsbooks! London is entering his second season, and although he disappointed with Marcus Mariota as his quarterback, he made major strides with the change to Desmond Ridder, averaging 83.25 yards per game. He also saw a target share of 29.4%, good for fifth in the league, and that share increased to over 31% with Ridder.  London scored four touchdowns on the season last year, and with an improved run game, defense, and quarterback situation, there’s no reason he shouldn’t score just one more this season. 

 

Running Back Props

Nick Chubb Over 1200.5 Rushing Yards: -110 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

Nick Chubb has been one of the most efficient bell cow running backs during his time in the league, and now with no Kareem Hunt vulturing touches, this backfield is his for the taking. He’s hit this threshold the past two seasons, and in 2021, he hit it while missing two games. Chubb has averaged five yards per carry or better each of his five years, and even if his volume doesn’t increase any from last year, that still puts him at over 1,500 rushing yards. Barring injury, he’s one of the surest bets to reach this threshold.

Bijan Robinson Over 1100.5 Rushing Yards: +100 (DraftKings Sportsbook)

If you’re wondering if I’m a Falcons fan after this article, I’m not, but the lines on these players are too good to ignore. This Atlanta offense is built to run, and even in an inefficient offense last year, Tyler Allgeier cracked 1000 yards with only 37.5% of the team’s carries. From all accounts, Robinson is going to be used “everywhere” on the field as a true bell cow, and if his tape out of Texas is any indication, he will be a nightmare for opposing defenses. In college, he averaged over six yards per carry, and if he is in line for a true bell cow role, he is set up for a huge stat line. I can’t believe this line is set at plus odds right now, and it is likely to creep down after training camp highlights emerge. He’s a generational talent with huge upside, and 1,100 yards seems like a criminally low bar.

Derrick Henry Over 9.5 Rushing Touchdowns: -105 (DraftKings Sportsbook)

For all the people calling for a Derrick Henry regression season, put on your ear muffs. Henry hasn’t had under ten touchdowns since his second season in 2017, and the offense in Tennessee hasn’t changed. It is built around him. He was responsible for nearly half of the Titans’ total touchdowns last season, and until he indicates any drop off in production, there’s nothing to make me think this year is it. The Titans are built to run, with Henry as their foundational piece, and with few receiving options to speak of, this should once again remain King Henry’s kingdom. 

 

Related Fantasy Football Links: