Too cliché to ask you if you’re ready for some football? Probably. But given the state of disarray most fantasy owners and DFS players are feeling after the injury assault we all endured on Sunday, it’s important to remember that we keep looking ahead. We move forward and win. If your DFS lineups got blown up by injuries, today is a new day with a new game to watch and new lineups to build.
Please allow me to reiterate that while we all love having a little skin in the game, these showdown slates are basically lottery tickets. Sure, there are times when the chalk hits and everyone shares in the prizes, but more often than not, you need that random, differentiate yourself from the herd dart-throw to hit in order to claim that top prize. As a result, we encourage to play responsibly. Stick to the GPP contests (single-entry preferred), don’t blow your whole bankroll and understand that, unless you are a max-entry player, you should prioritize having fun.
OK, lecture over. Let’s get to tonight’s action.
New Orleans Saints at Las Vegas Raiders
Spread: Saints -5.5
O/U: 48.5
Betting Facts:
Line opened at Saints -6.5; Total opened at 51.5
Money Line: Saints -230; Raiders +195
Weather: Irrelevant (dome)
Last 5 Match-Ups:
Saints lead 3-2
Average Margin of Victory – 13.4
Last Match-Up – Raiders beat the Saints 35-34 (Sept. 11, 2016)
Notable Injuries:
Saints:
WR Michael Thomas (ankle – out)
Raiders:
WR Henry Ruggs (knee – questionable)
Prop Bets to Watch:
The reason we are listing these here is to help you understand what the Vegas expectations are. If you aren’t routinely amazed by how accurate spreads and totals are, you haven’t been paying attention and you’re missing out on a valuable tool. Take a look at the list below and understand how to utilize for DFS. When you see the over and under have the same money line, that’s Vegas’ way of saying it can go either way. You have the base number and can determine whether you use a player or not based on that. But when there is a different money line on the over and unders (highlighted in green), Vegas is telling you what to expect. A negative money line means they feel it is more likely to happen which can help you make decisions regarding which players to play.
Drew Brees passing yards – 262.5 (over & under are -112); TD – 1.5 (over -125)
Derek Carr passing yards – 267.5 (over & under are -112); TD – 1.5 (over -137)
Josh Jacobs rushing yards – 68.5 (over & under are -112); receiving yards –17.5 (over -118)
Alvin Kamara rushing yards – 58.5 (over & under are -112); receiving yards – 37.5 (over -130)
Latavius Murray rushing yards – 33.5 (over & under are -112)
Emmanuel Sanders receiving yards – 55.5 (over & under are -112)
Tre'Quan Smith receiving yards – 33.5 (over & under are -112)
Bryan Edwards receiving yards – 31.5 (over & under are -112)
Hunter Renfrow receiving yards – 35.5 (over & under are -112)
Jared Cook receiving yards – 52.5 (over & under are -112)
Darren Waller receiving yards – 47.5 (over & under are -112)
Here’s a breakdown of which players we suggest looking at for tonight:
Quarterbacks:
Drew Brees , NO – Should be interesting to see how Brees does without Michael Thomas , but, in truth, I expect a very heavy run-scheme for the Saints, especially when the Raiders allowed 129 yards on the ground in Week 1. That means, unless they somehow fall behind by a wide margin, Brees isn’t going to be slinging the rock as much as we usually like to see in these slates. There is also the issue with Taysom Hill poaching snaps under center, so while it’s fine to use him, I don’t see him being Captain/MVP-worthy in this match-up.
Derek Carr , LV – The Raiders will do their best to control the pace of this game by leading with the run game early. However, if the defense struggles and the Raiders fall behind, Carr should start airing it out. I wouldn’t consider him for the Captain/MVP spot, but I may even consider using him over Brees.
Taysom Hill , NO – This is a dart-throw to differentiate yourself from the rest. Sort of. We all know how Sean Payton likes to utilize him both as a quarterback and a receiver, so his ownership numbers will probably be a little higher than they should be.
Running Backs:
Alvin Kamara , NO – Definitely worth Captain/MVP consideration as the Saints should be leaning fairly heavily on him and the rest of the ground attack. He, obviously, will be used in the passing game and may even see a few extra targets as they adjust to life without Michael Thomas .
Latavius Murray , NO – If, in fact, the Saints, do lead with the ground game, you can expect Murray to be heavily involved as well. He saw 15 carries last week, including 10 red zone carries, four inside the 10 yards line. Putting him in a lineup alongside Kamara will lock you down the team’s ground attack and with the Vegas total dropping three points during the week, the heavy run seems even more probable.
Josh Jacobs , RB LV – He was a beast last week, but that was against Carolina. The Saints defense allowed fewer than 90 yards in total to the Buccaneers, so Jacobs is going to have to grind for each and every yard. If the pace of this game slows down, it is because the teams are trading ground-blows back and forth, so look for Jacobs to touch the ball roughly 20 times, including the goal-line work. He is definitely a usable asset tonight.
Wide Receivers
Emmanuel Sanders , NO – The pressure is on as the Saints newest offensive weapon will be on full display tonight. The Raiders allowed almost 260 passing yards to the Panthers and Sanders matches up well against both corners. He won’t see the same volume as Thomas once did, but he should see a strong number of targets. I don’t see the volume to put him into the top spot though.
Tre'Quan Smith, NO – He’s a deep threat and also could see some work down near the goal-line. However, it is difficult to believe he is going to see significant volume. He’ll see targets, but he’s also still developing as a receiver.
Deonte Harris, NO – Talk about your random dart-throw, right? He saw 10% of the snaps last week, but should see an increase this week and sit above Marquez Callaway for WR3 responsibilities. We’ve seen Brees hit the random receiver before in the past, but he is not someone I am trusting. Probaly not going to use him either.
Henry Ruggs, LV – He took part in a limited practice Saturday, but the knee is not 100%. He’s listed as questionable and a game-time decision, so the only way I would consider him is if I’m going to max enter 150 lineups and make a few contrarian picks. Check the inactives before finalizing your lineups if you’re trying that.
Bryan Edwards, LV – He’s got some promise, for sure, especially with Ruggs likely out, but he is also likely to see a lot of Marshon Lattimore . Even if he is on the other side, he doesn’t, at least on paper, match up well with Janoris Jenkins either. If you believe the Raiders will be throwing heavy in the second half, you can use him, but we would avoid the captain/MVP spot.
Hunter Renfrow, LV – Even if Ruggs is out, Renfrow should see plenty of snaps in the slot and that’s where he earns his keep. He would match up against C.J. Gardner-Johnson there which actually grades out pretty well. We’d love to see P.J. Williams at some point as a slot-corner, but that’s just wishful thinking. We love targeting against P.J., for sure. Renfrow makes for an interesting option and his price is reasonable in a regular roster spot.
Nelson Agholor , LV – If Ruggs is out, Agholor should see a healthy increase in snaps and he would likely be the primary slot receiver. He is priced similarly to Renfrow but certainly won’t be rostered as heavily. Again, keep an eye on the inactives as this could be a decent mid-tier option.
Zay Jones , LV – He’s a dart-throw for those who max enter their contests and only worthy of selection if Ruggs is out. If Ruggs plays, he’s not stepping onto the field very much.
Tight Ends:
Jared Cook , NO – He got a ton of buzz when Thomas went down and many expect Cook to step up in targets and red zone looks. Think of how the Titans utilized Jonnu Smith Sunday with no A.J. Brown. Cook could be used more as a receiver and we know he and Brees already have a strong on-field rapport. Not sure if many would be willing to use Cook in the Captain/MVP spot, but I will.
Josh Hill , NO – He’ll serve as the secondary tight end, but if Cook steps up and into more of a receiver-type mode, Hill could get a few looks. We’ve seen him catch the random touchdown in the past, so if looking for a dart-throw with some mild upside, here you go.
Darren Waller , LV – Targets galore and red zone looks for sure. He saw eight targets last week and if the Saints leave the middle of the field open, Waller should see that many again, possibly even more. The Saints gave up some work, including a touchdown, to O.J. Howard last week, so Waller should remain in your plans. Don’t worry about having just one red zone target last week. The Raiders didn’t have a strong need until late as Jacobs was doing all the work.
Jason Witten , LV – A dart-throw option for sure as Witten could get a few targets inside the red zone. He has the size and experience to get position on slow-footed linebackers and slot-corners, but he’s more for an add-on for those pumping in 150 lineups.
Defense/Kickers:
Saints D/ST – With Carr under center for the Raiders? Absolutely in-play here and a great salary-saver to get in the bigger names.
Raiders D/ST -- Nope.
Wil Lutz , NO – The Saints offense always puts up points, so why wouldn’t you look at Lutz to save some money? If the raiders can find a way to stall the Saints offense, maybe he gets a few extra attempts.
Daniel Carlson , LV – Could be a great call here, again, to save money. We’ve see Carr struggle before, so if you want to get some big names into your lineup, Carlson will help you make room.
If you are looking for lineup help, check out our NFL Lineup Generator which can be adjusted for Showdown Slates.