Top Sleeper Wide Receivers to Watch for in the AFC in 2025 Fantasy Football

In the early rounds of fantasy football drafts, you want certainty. That’s why Ja'Marr Chase catching passes from his good buddy Joe Burrow is often the very first pick. You want floor AND ceiling. In later rounds, though, we lean into uncertainty. The mystery boxes. Give us a glimpse of upside and we’ll take our stabs.

With some of these teams, we know who the stars are. The Eagles, for instance, have Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert. Those are the guys. With some of these teams, it’s a mess. We don’t even know who will get the snaps, let alone the targets. And situations like that are where fantasy football sleepers are born.

Much like gambling on MVP or NFL Rookie of the Year, there are two kinds of bets you can make. You can bet on the most likely outcome, which comes at the highest price (worse odds for gambling or higher ADP for fantasy). Or you can go with a dark horse, which comes with worse odds but much more value creation if you win. And, the beautiful thing about doing that in fantasy football is that, unlike MVP, there can be more than one winner. You just have to pick the right guy.

Buffalo Bills Receiver Depth Chart Bets

Best Odds: Khalil Shakir, WR Buffalo Bills

The guy who led the team in targets last year is often going to be the most reasonable pick at the top. He certainly has the best floor of any receiver from this group, given his role in the offense, though it’s that role that also caps his ceiling to some degree. He’s essentially in the slot role that Cole Beasley had before him - in fact, his season last year was remarkably similar to 2020 Cole Beasley:

The low aDot slot role makes you a friendly target, which leads to a high catch rate. But it’s not conducive to big chunk plays that we need for high yardage totals. And it’s also a part-time role out of the slot, as Shakir does not play in 3-WR sets, which is why he only played 61% of the snaps on average last year. Barring some sort of role change, he’s probably once again going to be a bit of a “safe but boring” option - which are still valuable players in full PPR leagues, especially once with multiple flexes.

Dark Horse: Dalton Kincaid, TE Buffalo Bills

The other wide receivers are certainly interesting to take stabs on - Keon Coleman, Joshua Palmer, and Elijah Moore will all vie for outside jobs in this offense, which would present more upside than Shakir’s role if they could run with it. But it also could be a rotation with no one truly capturing anything like the Stefon Diggs share of past years. I’m not even sure they want that.

In uncertain situations, there is a benefit to betting on the tight end because of the positional scarcity of the position. If the targets are spread evenly, they are worth more. There has been widespread reporting that Dalton Kincaid dealt with injury all season. And GM Brandon Beane in his press conference last week confirmed that the down year was “injury-based and nothing more”. He added that Kincaid added strength in his offseason that could see him healthier and staying on the field for more snaps than he has played previously.

Houston Texans Pass Receiver Depth Chart Bets

Best Odds: Nico Collins, WR Houston Texans

This one is obvious up top. Nico Collins has emerged as a superstar. He’s led the team in targets in each of his last two seasons. And he’s a lock to lead this team in targets again - assuming he stays healthy. We’re generally not in the interest of playing “Dr. Fortuneteller”, but Nico Collins has missed games in each of his four seasons so far. Some guys, like James Conner, who has missed games with injury in each of his 8 seasons, have a playstyle that might be conducive to injury. But that’s not stopping us from picking Collins or Conner at their ADP, given the upside when healthy. 

Dark Horse: Jayden Higgins, WR Houston Texans

Nico Collins is pretty squarely the top dog, but the second target spot is wide open. Tight end Dalton Schultz really is not the kind of guy that commands 6+ targets per game, which is what you need to crack 100. Stefon Diggs is gone, and Tank Dell is set to miss the whole season, leaving the remaining spots up to newcomers.

Christian Kirk was set to be released by the Jaguars before the Texans stepped in and mercifully traded a seventh-round pick for him. He’s set to compete with rookie Jaylen Noel for work out of the slot. But it’s fellow rookie and former Iowa State teammate of Noel’s, Jayden Higgins, who has the clearest path to a full-time role. He’s reportedly showing out in early practices this year and could start immediately opposite Nico Collins.

Los Angeles Chargers Receiver Depth Chart Bets

Best Odds: Ladd McConkey, WR Los Angeles Chargers

Ladd McConkey is more than just a slot receiver. He thrives in the slot, sure, but he can also play outside in two WR sets. Those are the conditions that give us guys like CeeDee Lamb, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Chris Godwin, and Cooper Kupp. And that’s why we love Ladd McConkey in fantasy. He’s locked in as the top guy, but after him, it’s wide open. 

Dark Horse: Tre Harris, WR Los Angeles Chargers

Being tight end enthusiasts, we are quite tempted to fall for the buzz surrounding rookie hybrid tight end/WR Oronde Gadsden. And we’ll certainly have some shares in deeper formats. But they have inline tight ends and a premium slot WR, so his path to the snap share we need in fantasy is pretty tough. Tre Harris, on the other hand, could carve out a full-time role right away. 

McConkey operates as the slot/flanker. That means there is still a full-time role opposite him as the split end. I think Quentin Johnston and Mike Williams end up competing against each other to be the field stretcher over there. And that leaves Harris a path to claiming that bigger bodied outside role right from the rip. Or at least grow into it as this season rolls on. And, with Justin Herbert at the helm and Greg Roman calling the plays (who historically does not love passing to the running back) that role could be a profitable one for fantasy. 

New England Patriots Receiver Depth Chart Bets

Best Odds: Stefon Diggs, WR New England Patriots

Folks will say he’s washed. They’ll call him a troublemaker. But, if I asked you to bet on who would lead this team in targets and/or receptions, they would still give Diggs the best odds. He’s the only veteran on the team who has been a true alpha before, and they just gave him a bunch of money to bring that attitude here. Last year, before the injury, this guy was on pace for ~100 catches. Not targets. Catches.

Dark Horse: Kyle Williams, WR New England Patriots

There is a chance that Diggs is washed. Or that his surgically repaired knee bothers him. And there’s also the chance that Drake Maye takes a step forward, and this team can support two fantasy-relevant pass-catchers. Three is tough for any team, but two is obviously doable with the right system and the right volume.

Hunter Henry is a staple and a guy we like taking in best ball - he actually led this team last year. But we largely know who he is at this stage. Rookie RB TreVeyon Henderson could garner a lot of targets in the “James White” role, but he’s expensive in drafts, so not really a “dark horse” pick. The usage of Henry, second tight end Austin Hooper, and possibly also a fullback or two back sets with Josh McDaniels could mean a lot of two WR sets. That makes the role opposite Stefon Diggs appealing. They have guys floating around like Kayshon Boutte and Demario Douglas, but no one has more mystery box appeal than Kyle Williams, the shiny new rookie drafted by this team in the third round. He could offer the “inside, outside” versatility that a guy like Julian Edelman provided McDaniels years ago. 

Tennessee Titans Receiver Depth Chart Bets

Best Odds: Calvin Ridley, WR Tennessee Titans

Another one where the top guy is a pretty obvious name. He’s had back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons now, which is why the Titans had to pay big money in free agency to pry him away from the Jacksonville Jaguars. He’s already 30 years old, but he was a young prospect and missed a full season after a suspension, so he might not have the wear and tear that others have at that age. He’s easily the best bet to lead this team in targets and one that I will happily make. 

Dark Horse: Chig Okonkwo, TE Tennessee Titans

An argument could be made for Tyler Lockett or one of the rookie wide receivers. Lockett has been a fairly reliable guy in his 10-year career, missing only one game. And he had a hard time earning targets against DK Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, but that might not be so hard against this crew. Van Jefferson is a journeyman, and it’s worth noting that Xavier Restrepo did play, but Cameron Ward in college, but he’s an undrafted free agent. Elic Ayomanor and Chimere Dike are both Day Three picks from a WR class that was not highly touted. 

That said, Chig Okonkwo is the guy I’ve been taking towards the tail end of early best ball drafts. Not only does he have the TE eligibility in fantasy, but his athleticism allows him to break tackles and rip off more yardage than the average TE. Over the last five years, Okonkwo, George Kittle, and Kyle Pitts are the only active tight ends with three plays of 40+ yards in the same season. He even had a 70-yard touchdown last year. He came on a bit down the stretch with games of 10, 11, and 7 targets all in a row before leaving the final game with an injury. He could be a top-two target on this team, and he can do more with less on those targets, given his speed.